WNBA · May 29 gameAll props Full sheet

Phoenix Mercury at New York Liberty

FinalPHO 78 – NYL 81Page updated 17:55 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

No saved picks to grade.

Saved picks

0Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes

No playing-time estimates are available.

Picks for this game are not posted yet. The players below are up to date.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Players and minutes5 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

Phoenix Mercury

Kahleah Copper · minutes unknown

points 24.5 → 20 actual

Natasha Mack · minutes unknown

points 11.5 → 4 actual

New York Liberty

Breanna Stewart · minutes unknown

points 21.5 → 13 actual

Jonquel Jones · minutes unknown

rebounds 8.5 → 7 actual

Sabrina Ionescu · minutes unknown

points 16.5 → 22 actual

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

NYL expected to win by about 14 · both teams together expected to score about 172.5 points · odds to win: PHO 8.55, NYL 1.10

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference) · observed Wed 22:55 UTC

What could go wrong

updated 17:55 UTC

Who is out

Nobody is listed as injured on either team.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates are available.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

PHO had 7 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 52 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

One team is expected to win by 10 or more. In past games like this, players went over their lines 65.9% of the time; this does not mean the opposite is a good bet.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

In 3 of 3 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

5 other players with a posted line

Natasha Mack · points 11.5 → 4 · 7.5 below the line · played 22.2 min · no final price

Breanna Stewart · points 21.5 → 13 · 8.5 below the line · played 36.5 min · no final price

Sabrina Ionescu · points 16.5 → 22 · 5.5 above the line · played 34.7 min · no final price

Kahleah Copper · points 24.5 → 20 · 4.5 below the line · played 31.8 min · no final price

Jonquel Jones · rebounds 8.5 → 7 · 1.5 below the line · played 31.4 min · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

NYL vs PHO · last 19 games · NYL leads · NYL record 11–8 · average score 81.5–80.2 · NYL has won by 1.3 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

1 Aug · NYL 94 at PHO 92NYL won

29 May · PHO 68 at NYL 75NYL won

27 May · PHO 74 at NYL 84NYL won

What each defense gives up per game

PHO gives up87.6 points · 34.0 rebounds · 21.5 assists · 9.7 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.4% of shots · 36.1% from three-point range · 12.9 opponent turnovers

NYL gives up86.0 points · 31.3 rebounds · 21.3 assists · 9.0 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.7% of shots · 34.4% from three-point range · 10.9 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

PHO gives up 87.6 points a game · 8th of 15 · league average 87.2about league average

NYL gives up 86.0 points a game · 6th of 15 · league average 87.2about league average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had NYL expected to win by 14, expected total 172.5 (Wed 22:55 UTC) and had not changed it by Wed 22:55 UTC.

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 34

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 110 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 110 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 111 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 115 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 121 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 124 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 126 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 128 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 129 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 130 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 132 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 214 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 372 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 33 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 37 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 422 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 183 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 197 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 503 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 625 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 230 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 236 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 262 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 289 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 765 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 446 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 456 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 464 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 492 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 859 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 903 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 960 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 972 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1087 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.