WNBA · Jul 4 gameAll props Full sheet

Connecticut Sun at Minnesota Lynx

FinalCON 78 – MIN 73Page updated 09:08 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

No saved picks to grade.

Saved picks

0Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes

No playing-time estimates are available.

Picks for this game are not posted yet. The players below are up to date.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Players and minutes3 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

Connecticut Sun

Minnesota Lynx

Courtney Williams · minutes unknown

assists 4.5 → 6 actual

Kayla McBride · minutes unknown

points 14.5 → 13 actual

Napheesa Collier · minutes unknown

rebounds 9.5 → 6 actual

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

MIN expected to win by about 3.5 · both teams together expected to score about 151.5 points · odds to win: CON 2.32, MIN 1.66

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference) · observed Thu 23:55 UTC

What could go wrong

updated 09:08 UTC

Who is out

Nobody is listed as injured on either team.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates are available.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

CON had 8 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 40 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

In 1 of 1 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

3 other players with a posted line

Napheesa Collier · rebounds 9.5 → 6 · 3.5 below the line · played 24.6 min · no final price

Courtney Williams · assists 4.5 → 6 · 1.5 above the line · played 28.2 min · no final price

Kayla McBride · points 14.5 → 13 · 1.5 below the line · played 31 min · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

MIN vs CON · last 24 games · CON leads · MIN record 11–13 · average score 81.6–81.5 · MIN has won by 0.1 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

20 Sep · MIN 101 at CON 89MIN won

8 Jul · MIN 86 at CON 80MIN won

6 Jul · CON 90 at MIN 89MIN lost

What each defense gives up per game

CON gives up87.7 points · 33.9 rebounds · 19.9 assists · 8.0 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.3% of shots · 34.9% from three-point range · 13.5 opponent turnovers

MIN gives up83.9 points · 33.4 rebounds · 20.5 assists · 9.3 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 43.7% of shots · 33.3% from three-point range · 14.5 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

CON gives up 87.7 points a game · 9th of 15 · league average 87.2about league average

MIN gives up 83.9 points a game · 3rd of 15 · league average 87.2−3.3 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had MIN expected to win by 3.5, expected total 151.5 (Thu 23:55 UTC) and had not changed it by Thu 23:55 UTC.

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 28

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 203 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 212 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 217 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 221 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 225 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 492 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 495 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 498 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 500 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 505 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 519 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 527 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 538 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 56 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 57 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 582 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 588 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 24 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 29 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 164 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 141 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 145 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 177 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 182 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 913 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 748 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 752 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 797 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.