WNBA · Oct 6 gameFull sheet

New York Liberty at Las Vegas Aces

FinalNYL 76 – LVA 62Page updated 12:24 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

No saved picks to grade.

Saved picks

0Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes

No playing-time estimates are available.

Picks for this game are not posted yet. The players below are up to date.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Players and minutes7 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

New York Liberty

Breanna Stewart · minutes unknown

points 20.5 → 19 actual

Jonquel Jones · minutes unknown

points 13.5 → 14 actual

Leonie Fiebich · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 1 actual

Sabrina Ionescu · minutes unknown

points 17.5 → 22 actual

Las Vegas Aces

A'ja Wilson · minutes unknown

points 23.5 → 19 actual

Chelsea Gray · minutes unknown

points 10.5 → 7 actual

Jackie Young · minutes unknown

points 16.5 → 4 actual

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

LVA expected to win by about 3 · both teams together expected to score about 166 points · odds to win: NYL 2.23, LVA 1.70

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference) · observed Sun 18:55 UTC

What could go wrong

updated 12:24 UTC

Who is out

Nobody is listed as injured on either team.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates are available.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 80 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

In 2 of 4 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

7 other players with a posted line

Jackie Young · points 16.5 → 4 · 12.5 below the line · played 28.1 min · no final price

Leonie Fiebich · 3-pointers 1.5 → 1 · 0.5 below the line · played 28.4 min · no final price

Chelsea Gray · points 10.5 → 7 · 3.5 below the line · played 34.8 min · no final price

Sabrina Ionescu · points 17.5 → 22 · 4.5 above the line · played 35.9 min · no final price

A'ja Wilson · points 23.5 → 19 · 4.5 below the line · played 37.5 min · no final price

Breanna Stewart · points 20.5 → 19 · 1.5 below the line · played 39 min · no final price

Jonquel Jones · points 13.5 → 14 · 0.5 above the line · played 27.9 min · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

LVA vs NYL · last 25 games · NYL leads · LVA record 10–15 · average score 84.5–87.0 · LVA has lost by 2.5 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

9 Aug · LVA 71 at NYL 111LVA lost

30 Jul · NYL 99 at LVA 104LVA won

30 Jun · LVA 85 at NYL 93LVA lost

23 Jun · NYL 87 at LVA 76LVA lost

What each defense gives up per game

NYL gives up86.0 points · 31.3 rebounds · 21.3 assists · 9.0 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.7% of shots · 34.4% from three-point range · 10.9 opponent turnovers

LVA gives up86.2 points · 33.4 rebounds · 19.0 assists · 8.8 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.6% of shots · 34.9% from three-point range · 13.2 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

NYL gives up 86.0 points a game · 6th of 15 · league average 87.2about league average

LVA gives up 86.2 points a game · 7th of 15 · league average 87.2about league average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had LVA expected to win by 3, expected total 166 (Sun 18:55 UTC) and had not changed it by Sun 18:55 UTC.

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 54

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 100 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 100 ms

sds games/date (2024-10-05)ok 200 · 101 ms

sds games/date (2024-10-04)ok 200 · 101 ms

sds games/date (2024-10-03)ok 200 · 101 ms

sds games/date (2024-10-02)ok 200 · 102 ms

sds games/date (2024-10-01)ok 200 · 102 ms

sds games/date (2024-09-30)ok 200 · 103 ms

sds games/date (2024-09-29)ok 200 · 103 ms

sds games/date (2024-09-28)ok 200 · 105 ms

sds games/date (2024-09-26)ok 200 · 114 ms

sds games/date (2024-09-25)ok 200 · 116 ms

sds games/date (2024-09-24)ok 200 · 116 ms

sds games/date (2024-09-23)ok 200 · 117 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 133 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 134 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 141 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 142 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 143 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 153 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 196 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 320 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 335 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 337 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 4 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 4 ms

sds games/date (2024-09-22)ok 200 · 358 ms

sds games/date (2024-09-27)ok 200 · 360 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 392 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 457 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 102 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 879 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 1251 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 44 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 45 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 47 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 121 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 123 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 125 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 129 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 143 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 145 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 150 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 152 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 156 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 202 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 245 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 562 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 569 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 571 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 573 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 574 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 583 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.