WNBA · Sep 4 gameAll props Full sheet

Minnesota Lynx at Las Vegas Aces

FinalMIN 87 – LVA 97Page updated 04:17 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

No saved picks to grade.

Saved picks

0Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes

No playing-time estimates are available.

Picks for this game are not posted yet. The players below are up to date.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Players and minutes8 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

Minnesota Lynx

Courtney Williams · minutes unknown

assists 6.5 → 4 actual

Kayla McBride · minutes unknown

3-pointers 2.5 → 2 actual

Napheesa Collier · minutes unknown

rebounds 7.5 → 6 actual

Las Vegas Aces

A'ja Wilson · minutes unknown

rebounds 10.5 → 8 actual

Chelsea Gray · minutes unknown

assists 5.5 → 10 actual

Jackie Young · minutes unknown

points 14.5 → 20 actual

Jewell Loyd · minutes unknown

points 10.5 → 6 actual

NaLyssa Smith · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 10 actual

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

MIN expected to win by about 2 · both teams together expected to score about 164 points · odds to win: MIN 1.81, LVA 2.05

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference) · observed Fri 01:55 UTC

What could go wrong

updated 04:17 UTC

Who is out

Nobody is listed as injured on either team.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates are available.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

MIN had 43 days off before this game · LVA had 33 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 53 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

In 4 of 5 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

8 other players with a posted line

Chelsea Gray · assists 5.5 → 10 · 4.5 above the line · played 33.8 min · no final price

Jewell Loyd · points 10.5 → 6 · 4.5 below the line · played 24.7 min · no final price

Courtney Williams · assists 6.5 → 4 · 2.5 below the line · played 28.9 min · no final price

Jackie Young · points 14.5 → 20 · 5.5 above the line · played 32.5 min · no final price

A'ja Wilson · rebounds 10.5 → 8 · 2.5 below the line · played 35 min · no final price

Kayla McBride · 3-pointers 2.5 → 2 · 0.5 below the line · played 28.5 min · no final price

Napheesa Collier · rebounds 7.5 → 6 · 1.5 below the line · played 29.5 min · no final price

NaLyssa Smith · points 8.5 → 10 · 1.5 above the line · played 25.9 min · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

LVA vs MIN · last 19 games · LVA leads · LVA record 10–9 · average score 84.6–87.1 · LVA has lost by 2.4 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

15 Aug · MIN 92 at LVA 87LVA lost

8 Aug · LVA 87 at MIN 98LVA lost

13 Jun · MIN 97 at LVA 100LVA won

What each defense gives up per game

MIN gives up83.9 points · 33.4 rebounds · 20.5 assists · 9.3 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 43.7% of shots · 33.3% from three-point range · 14.5 opponent turnovers

LVA gives up85.8 points · 34.0 rebounds · 18.6 assists · 8.8 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.2% of shots · 34.5% from three-point range · 13.0 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

MIN gives up 83.9 points a game · 4th of 15 · league average 87.0−3.1 vs average

LVA gives up 85.8 points a game · 6th of 15 · league average 87.0about league average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had MIN expected to win by 2, expected total 164 (Fri 01:55 UTC) and had not changed it by Fri 01:55 UTC.

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 43

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 10 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 12 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 13 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 14 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 16 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 18 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 19 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 19 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 19 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 21 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 23 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 90 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 100 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 102 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 7 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 7 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 104 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 56 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 129 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 128 ms

odds player timeline (assists)failed 503 · 131 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 130 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 131 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 132 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 136 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 144 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 148 ms

odds player timeline (threes)failed 503 · 149 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 259 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 156 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 159 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 161 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 165 ms

odds player timeline (assists)failed 503 · 180 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 185 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 195 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 195 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 198 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 203 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 206 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 211 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 586 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.