WNBA · Final · Playoffs round 1, game 1 · first game of the seriesupdated 19:21 UTC

New York Liberty vs Phoenix Mercury

at Phoenix Mercury

NYL expected to win by about 2 · both teams together expected to score about 164 points · odds to win: NYL 1.78, PHO 2.11

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Sun 20:55 UTC

NYL 76 – PHO 69

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: NYL = New York Liberty, PHO = Phoenix Mercury.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Picks for this game are not posted yet. The players below are up to date.

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

9 players checked · 3 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 9 players have performed clearly differently and 2 show a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line · playoff series: too few games to measure a difference

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

New York Libertyplaying PHO

Breanna Stewart · minutes unknown

points 18.5 → 18 actual

Jonquel Jones · minutes unknown

points 13.5 → 7 actual

Leonie Fiebich · minutes unknown

rebounds 2.5 → 6 actual

Sabrina Ionescu · minutes unknown

points 17.5 → 16 actual

Satou Sabally · minutes unknown

points 14.5 → 9 actual

Phoenix Mercuryplaying NYL

Alyssa Thomas · minutes unknown

rebounds 9.5 → 9 actual

Kahleah Copper · minutes unknown

points 17.5 → 15 actual

Natasha Mack · minutes unknown

points 9.5 → 2 actual

Sami Whitcomb · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 2 actual

What could go wrong

updated 19:21 UTC

Who is out

Nobody is listed as injured on either team.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 75 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 3 of 3 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

9 other players with a posted line

Leonie Fiebich · rebounds 2.5 → 6 · 3.5 above the line · played 39.1 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.73, Under 2.06

Natasha Mack · points 9.5 → 2 · 7.5 below the line · played 19.1 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.88, Under 1.88

Jonquel Jones · points 13.5 → 7 · 6.5 below the line · played 34.8 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 2.00, Under 1.77

Satou Sabally · points 14.5 → 9 · 5.5 below the line · played 36.7 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.70, Under 2.10

Sami Whitcomb · 3-pointers 1.5 → 2 · 0.5 above the line · played 20.2 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 2.24, Under 1.62

Kahleah Copper · points 17.5 → 15 · 2.5 below the line · played 36.3 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.97, Under 1.80

Sabrina Ionescu · points 17.5 → 16 · 1.5 below the line · played 43 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.98, Under 1.79

Alyssa Thomas · rebounds 9.5 → 9 · 0.5 below the line · played 40.7 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.78, Under 1.99

Breanna Stewart · points 18.5 → 18 · 0.5 below the line · played 39.9 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.81, Under 1.96

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

PHO vs NYL · last 19 games · NYL leads · PHO record 8–11 · average score 80.2–81.5 · PHO has lost by 1.3 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

1 Aug · NYL 94 at PHO 92PHO lost

29 May · PHO 68 at NYL 75PHO lost

27 May · PHO 74 at NYL 84PHO lost

What each defense gives up per game

NYL gives up86.6 points · 31.5 rebounds · 21.4 assists · 9.0 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.9% of shots · 34.3% from three-point range · 10.8 opponent turnovers

PHO gives up87.6 points · 34.0 rebounds · 21.5 assists · 9.7 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.4% of shots · 36.1% from three-point range · 12.9 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

NYL gives up 86.6 points a game · 7th of 15 · league average 87.0about league average

PHO gives up 87.6 points a game · 8th of 15 · league average 87.0about league average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had NYL expected to win by 2, expected total 164 (Sun 20:55 UTC) and had not changed it by Sun 20:55 UTC.

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 60

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 55 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 64 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 67 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-13)ok 200 · 68 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-08)ok 200 · 68 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-09)ok 200 · 70 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-07)ok 200 · 73 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-12)ok 200 · 74 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-11)ok 200 · 75 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-06)ok 200 · 76 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-10)ok 200 · 78 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-05)ok 200 · 79 ms

sds games/date (2025-08-31)ok 200 · 80 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-04)ok 200 · 83 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-03)ok 200 · 85 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 86 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-02)ok 200 · 90 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 119 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 134 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 164 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 169 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 170 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 170 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 171 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 189 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 42 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 44 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 271 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 203 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 296 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-01)ok 200 · 301 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 327 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 59 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 70 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 77 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 177 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 183 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 186 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 196 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 199 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 201 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 204 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 214 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 223 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 241 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 249 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 259 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 262 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 277 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 304 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 680 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 587 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 589 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 590 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 616 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 621 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 632 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 637 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 669 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 677 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.