WNBA · Sep 16 gameAll props Full sheet

Las Vegas Aces at Seattle Storm

FinalLVA 83 – SEA 86Page updated 01:33 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

No saved picks to grade.

Saved picks

0Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes

No playing-time estimates are available.

Picks for this game are not posted yet. The players below are up to date.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Players and minutes7 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

Las Vegas Aces

A'ja Wilson · minutes unknown

points 24.5 → 21 actual

Chelsea Gray · minutes unknown

rebounds 3.5 → 1 actual

Jackie Young · minutes unknown

assists 5.5 → 4 actual

Jewell Loyd · minutes unknown

points 9.5 → 13 actual

NaLyssa Smith · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 7 actual

Seattle Storm

Dominique Malonga · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 11 actual

Ezi Magbegor · minutes unknown

points 7.5 → 4 actual

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

LVA expected to win by about 4.5 · both teams together expected to score about 162 points · odds to win: LVA 1.47, SEA 2.79

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference) · observed Wed 01:25 UTC

What could go wrong

updated 01:33 UTC

Who is out

Nobody is listed as injured on either team.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates are available.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

LVA had 33 days off before this game · SEA had 49 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 78 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

In 4 of 6 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

7 other players with a posted line

Chelsea Gray · rebounds 3.5 → 1 · 2.5 below the line · played 36.4 min · no final price

Ezi Magbegor · points 7.5 → 4 · 3.5 below the line · played 23.1 min · no final price

Jewell Loyd · points 9.5 → 13 · 3.5 above the line · played 29.2 min · no final price

Dominique Malonga · points 8.5 → 11 · 2.5 above the line · played 22.9 min · no final price

Jackie Young · assists 5.5 → 4 · 1.5 below the line · played 34.6 min · no final price

NaLyssa Smith · points 8.5 → 7 · 1.5 below the line · played 31 min · no final price

A'ja Wilson · points 24.5 → 21 · 3.5 below the line · played 38.3 min · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

SEA vs LVA · last 28 games · LVA leads · SEA record 6–22 · average score 79.8–89.0 · SEA has lost by 9.3 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

20 Sep · SEA 77 at LVA 98SEA lost

17 Sep · LVA 114 at SEA 77SEA lost

8 Jun · SEA 91 at LVA 101SEA lost

18 Sep · SEA 73 at LVA 74SEA lost

16 Sep · LVA 83 at SEA 86SEA won

14 Sep · SEA 77 at LVA 102SEA lost

What each defense gives up per game

LVA gives up85.8 points · 34.0 rebounds · 18.6 assists · 8.8 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.2% of shots · 34.5% from three-point range · 13.0 opponent turnovers

SEA gives up88.9 points · 36.3 rebounds · 21.1 assists · 8.8 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.0% of shots · 32.7% from three-point range · 12.8 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

LVA gives up 85.8 points a game · 6th of 15 · league average 87.0about league average

SEA gives up 88.9 points a game · 10th of 15 · league average 87.0+1.9 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had LVA expected to win by 4.5, expected total 162 (Wed 01:25 UTC) and had not changed it by Wed 01:25 UTC.

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 54

sds games/date (2025-09-13)ok 200 · 14 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 16 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-12)ok 200 · 16 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 16 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-15)ok 200 · 18 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 18 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 19 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 24 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-14)ok 200 · 45 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-06)ok 200 · 45 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-05)ok 200 · 45 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-08)ok 200 · 45 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 45 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-07)ok 200 · 45 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-04)ok 200 · 45 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-02)ok 200 · 46 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-03)ok 200 · 46 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-09)ok 200 · 46 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 46 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 46 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-11)ok 200 · 47 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-10)ok 200 · 47 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 48 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 51 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 53 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 118 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 125 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 5 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 5 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 92 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 18 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 20 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 19 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 20 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 22 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 25 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 27 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 30 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 179 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 184 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 85 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 93 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 94 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 95 ms

odds player timeline (assists)failed 503 · 95 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 96 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 97 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 100 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 106 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 111 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 118 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 576 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.