WNBA · Final · Playoffs round 1, game 2 · MIN leads 1–0updated 17:32 UTC

Minnesota Lynx vs Golden State Valkyries

at Golden State Valkyries

MIN expected to win by about 10.5 · both teams together expected to score about 151.5 points · odds to win: MIN 1.17, GSV 5.59

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Thu 01:55 UTC

MIN 75 – GSV 74

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: MIN = Minnesota Lynx, GSV = Golden State Valkyries.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Picks for this game are not posted yet. The players below are up to date.

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

7 players checked · 4 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 1 of 7 players has performed clearly differently and 3 show a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line · playoff series: too few games to measure a difference

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Minnesota Lynxplaying GSV

Courtney Williams · minutes unknown

points 12.5 → 6 actual

Kayla McBride · minutes unknown

3-pointers 2.5 → 1 actual

Napheesa Collier · minutes unknown

points 21.5 → 24 actual

Golden State Valkyriesplaying MIN

Cecilia Zandalasini · minutes unknown

points 11.5 → 14 actual

Janelle Salaun · minutes unknown

rebounds 5.5 → 4 actual

Kaila Charles · minutes unknown

points 9.5 → 5 actual

Veronica Burton · minutes unknown

points 13.5 → 13 actual

What could go wrong

updated 17:32 UTC

Who is out

Nobody is listed as injured on either team.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 57 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

One team is expected to win by 10 or more. In past games like this, players went over their lines 65.9% of the time; this does not mean the opposite is a good bet.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 3 of 4 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

7 other players with a posted line

Kayla McBride · 3-pointers 2.5 → 1 · 1.5 below the line · played 38.2 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 2.20, Under 1.64

Courtney Williams · points 12.5 → 6 · 6.5 below the line · played 27.8 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.86, Under 1.90

Kaila Charles · points 9.5 → 5 · 4.5 below the line · played 27.6 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 2.58, Under 1.48

Janelle Salaun · rebounds 5.5 → 4 · 1.5 below the line · played 33.7 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.83, Under 1.93

Cecilia Zandalasini · points 11.5 → 14 · 2.5 above the line · played 32.1 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.90, Under 1.86

Napheesa Collier · points 21.5 → 24 · 2.5 above the line · played 38.6 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.95, Under 1.81

Veronica Burton · points 13.5 → 13 · 0.5 below the line · played 35.4 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.87, Under 1.89

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

GSV vs MIN · last 10 games · MIN leads · GSV record 1–9 · average score 72.2–80.5 · GSV has lost by 8.3 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

24 Aug · GSV 80 at MIN 66GSV won

19 Aug · MIN 77 at GSV 66GSV lost

19 Jun · MIN 81 at GSV 75GSV lost

4 Jun · GSV 84 at MIN 87GSV lost

17 Sep · MIN 75 at GSV 74GSV lost

14 Sep · GSV 72 at MIN 101GSV lost

11 Sep · GSV 53 at MIN 72GSV lost

What each defense gives up per game

MIN gives up83.7 points · 33.2 rebounds · 20.4 assists · 9.3 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 43.5% of shots · 32.9% from three-point range · 14.5 opponent turnovers

GSV gives up75.1 points · 32.7 rebounds · 18.2 assists · 8.0 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 41.4% of shots · 32.6% from three-point range · 13.7 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

MIN gives up 83.7 points a game · 3rd of 15 · league average 87.0−3.4 vs average

GSV gives up 75.1 points a game · 1st of 15 · league average 87.0−11.9 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had MIN expected to win by 10.5, expected total 151.5 (Thu 01:55 UTC) and had not changed it by Thu 01:55 UTC.

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 54

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 95 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-16)ok 200 · 98 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-15)ok 200 · 99 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-13)ok 200 · 100 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-10)ok 200 · 101 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-09)ok 200 · 102 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-08)ok 200 · 103 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-07)ok 200 · 103 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-06)ok 200 · 104 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-05)ok 200 · 105 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-04)ok 200 · 106 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-03)ok 200 · 106 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 108 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 112 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 118 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 120 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 131 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-11)ok 200 · 132 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-12)ok 200 · 133 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-14)ok 200 · 147 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 213 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 233 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 5 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 7 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 35 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 280 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 285 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 288 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 293 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 294 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 60 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 321 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 104 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 402 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 276 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 278 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 284 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 293 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 295 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 536 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 326 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 330 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 333 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 365 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 374 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 637 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 436 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 583 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 627 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 654 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 654 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 662 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 665 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 668 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.