WNBA · Sep 19 gameAll props Full sheet

New York Liberty at Phoenix Mercury

FinalNYL 73 – PHO 79Page updated 01:33 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

No saved picks to grade.

Saved picks

0Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes

No playing-time estimates are available.

Picks for this game are not posted yet. The players below are up to date.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Players and minutes8 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

New York Liberty

Breanna Stewart · minutes unknown

points 13.5 → 30 actual

Jonquel Jones · minutes unknown

rebounds 9.5 → 8 actual

Leonie Fiebich · minutes unknown

rebounds 3.5 → 3 actual

Sabrina Ionescu · minutes unknown

assists 5.5 → 4 actual

Satou Sabally · minutes unknown

points 14.5 → 23 actual

Phoenix Mercury

Alyssa Thomas · minutes unknown

points 15.5 → 20 actual

Kahleah Copper · minutes unknown

points 15.5 → 12 actual

Natasha Mack · minutes unknown

points 10.5 → 0 actual

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

PHO expected to win by about 3 · both teams together expected to score about 155.5 points · odds to win: NYL 2.26, PHO 1.68

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference) · observed Sat 00:55 UTC

What could go wrong

updated 01:33 UTC

Who is out

Nobody is listed as injured on either team.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates are available.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

NYL had 33 days off before this game · PHO had 48 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 63 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

In 4 of 6 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

8 other players with a posted line

Breanna Stewart · points 13.5 → 30 · 16.5 above the line · played 34.9 min · no final price

Natasha Mack · points 10.5 → 0 · 10.5 below the line · played 19.2 min · no final price

Satou Sabally · points 14.5 → 23 · 8.5 above the line · played 34.4 min · no final price

Alyssa Thomas · points 15.5 → 20 · 4.5 above the line · played 37.2 min · no final price

Sabrina Ionescu · assists 5.5 → 4 · 1.5 below the line · played 37.5 min · no final price

Kahleah Copper · points 15.5 → 12 · 3.5 below the line · played 34.4 min · no final price

Jonquel Jones · rebounds 9.5 → 8 · 1.5 below the line · played 32.6 min · no final price

Leonie Fiebich · rebounds 3.5 → 3 · 0.5 below the line · played 28.4 min · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

PHO vs NYL · last 19 games · NYL leads · PHO record 8–11 · average score 80.2–81.5 · PHO has lost by 1.3 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

1 Aug · NYL 94 at PHO 92PHO lost

29 May · PHO 68 at NYL 75PHO lost

27 May · PHO 74 at NYL 84PHO lost

What each defense gives up per game

NYL gives up86.5 points · 31.4 rebounds · 21.3 assists · 9.0 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.6% of shots · 34.6% from three-point range · 10.8 opponent turnovers

PHO gives up87.6 points · 34.0 rebounds · 21.5 assists · 9.7 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.4% of shots · 36.1% from three-point range · 12.9 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

NYL gives up 86.5 points a game · 7th of 15 · league average 87.0about league average

PHO gives up 87.6 points a game · 8th of 15 · league average 87.0about league average

How the game odds moved

No history of the game odds on file.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 57

sds games/date (2025-09-15)ok 200 · 29 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-13)ok 200 · 31 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-12)ok 200 · 34 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 37 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 37 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 39 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 39 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 40 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-14)ok 200 · 47 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-18)ok 200 · 47 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-09)ok 200 · 47 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-17)ok 200 · 47 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-10)ok 200 · 48 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-11)ok 200 · 48 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-08)ok 200 · 48 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-07)ok 200 · 48 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-16)ok 200 · 48 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 49 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 48 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 48 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 53 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 55 ms

odds game timelinefailed 503 · 121 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-06)ok 200 · 125 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 128 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-05)ok 200 · 131 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 132 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 5 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 7 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 140 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 88 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 212 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 237 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 19 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 21 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 22 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 26 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 28 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 34 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 37 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 38 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 87 ms

odds player timeline (assists)failed 503 · 89 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 92 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 92 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 94 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 97 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 102 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 102 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 105 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 106 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.