WNBA · Sep 28 gameAll props Full sheet

Minnesota Lynx at Phoenix Mercury

FinalMIN 81 – PHO 86Page updated 01:33 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

No saved picks to grade.

Saved picks

0Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes

No playing-time estimates are available.

Picks for this game are not posted yet. The players below are up to date.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Players and minutes5 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

Minnesota Lynx

Courtney Williams · minutes unknown

points 17.5 → 20 actual

Kayla McBride · minutes unknown

points 16.5 → 31 actual

Phoenix Mercury

Alyssa Thomas · minutes unknown

points 15.5 → 23 actual

Kahleah Copper · minutes unknown

points 15.5 → 13 actual

Sami Whitcomb · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 1 actual

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

Game odds unavailable.

What could go wrong

updated 01:33 UTC

Who is out

Nobody is listed as injured on either team.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates are available.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

MIN had 43 days off before this game · PHO had 48 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 59 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

In 0 of 4 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

5 other players with a posted line

Kayla McBride · points 16.5 → 31 · 14.5 above the line · played 37.8 min · no final price

Alyssa Thomas · points 15.5 → 23 · 7.5 above the line · played 36.8 min · no final price

Sami Whitcomb · 3-pointers 1.5 → 1 · 0.5 below the line · played 27.1 min · no final price

Kahleah Copper · points 15.5 → 13 · 2.5 below the line · played 32.1 min · no final price

Courtney Williams · points 17.5 → 20 · 2.5 above the line · played 32.9 min · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

PHO vs MIN · last 26 games · MIN leads · PHO record 6–20 · average score 79.3–87.5 · PHO has lost by 8.2 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

13 Jul · PHO 100 at MIN 104PHO lost

1 Jun · MIN 111 at PHO 77PHO lost

12 May · MIN 88 at PHO 84PHO lost

28 Sep · MIN 81 at PHO 86PHO won

26 Sep · MIN 76 at PHO 84PHO won

What each defense gives up per game

MIN gives up83.9 points · 33.4 rebounds · 20.5 assists · 9.3 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 43.7% of shots · 33.3% from three-point range · 14.5 opponent turnovers

PHO gives up87.6 points · 34.0 rebounds · 21.5 assists · 9.7 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.4% of shots · 36.1% from three-point range · 12.9 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

MIN gives up 83.9 points a game · 4th of 15 · league average 87.0−3.1 vs average

PHO gives up 87.6 points a game · 8th of 15 · league average 87.0about league average

How the game odds moved

No history of the game odds on file.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 48

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 11 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-22)ok 200 · 10 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-27)ok 200 · 14 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 15 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 16 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-24)ok 200 · 17 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-20)ok 200 · 18 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 22 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 23 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-15)ok 200 · 25 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 26 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-25)ok 200 · 27 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-23)ok 200 · 28 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-21)ok 200 · 29 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-19)ok 200 · 29 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-26)ok 200 · 29 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-18)ok 200 · 30 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 30 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-16)ok 200 · 30 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-17)ok 200 · 30 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-14)ok 200 · 31 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 31 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 32 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 32 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 34 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 91 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 104 ms

odds game timelinefailed 503 · 105 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 6 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 7 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 89 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 124 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 22 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 21 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 23 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 22 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 164 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 60 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 61 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 67 ms

odds player timeline (threes)failed 503 · 111 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 112 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 117 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 120 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 128 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.