WNBA · Sep 30 gameAll props Full sheet

Indiana Fever at Las Vegas Aces

FinalIND 98 – LVA 107Page updated 01:33 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

No saved picks to grade.

Saved picks

0Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes

No playing-time estimates are available.

Picks for this game are not posted yet. The players below are up to date.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Players and minutes9 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

Indiana Fever

Aliyah Boston · minutes unknown

points 14.5 → 11 actual

Kelsey Mitchell · minutes unknown

points 21.5 → 15 actual

Lexie Hull · minutes unknown

rebounds 4.5 → 7 actual

Las Vegas Aces

A'ja Wilson · minutes unknown

points 25.5 → 35 actual

Chelsea Gray · minutes unknown

points 10.5 → 17 actual

Dana Evans · minutes unknown

points 7.5 → 5 actual

Jackie Young · minutes unknown

points 16.5 → 32 actual

Jewell Loyd · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 2 actual

NaLyssa Smith · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 5 actual

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

LVA expected to win by about 8.5 · both teams together expected to score about 158.5 points · odds to win: IND 4.40, LVA 1.23

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference) · observed Wed 01:25 UTC

What could go wrong

updated 01:33 UTC

Who is out

Nobody is listed as injured on either team.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates are available.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

IND had 41 days off before this game · LVA had 33 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 59 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

In 2 of 5 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

9 other players with a posted line

Jackie Young · points 16.5 → 32 · 15.5 above the line · played 43.6 min · no final price

Chelsea Gray · points 10.5 → 17 · 6.5 above the line · played 39 min · no final price

Lexie Hull · rebounds 4.5 → 7 · 2.5 above the line · played 43.1 min · no final price

NaLyssa Smith · points 8.5 → 5 · 3.5 below the line · played 25.9 min · no final price

A'ja Wilson · points 25.5 → 35 · 9.5 above the line · played 40.9 min · no final price

Dana Evans · points 7.5 → 5 · 2.5 below the line · played 19.7 min · no final price

Jewell Loyd · 3-pointers 1.5 → 2 · 0.5 above the line · played 31.8 min · no final price

Kelsey Mitchell · points 21.5 → 15 · 6.5 below the line · played 23.3 min · no final price

Aliyah Boston · points 14.5 → 11 · 3.5 below the line · played 31.5 min · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

LVA vs IND · last 24 games · LVA leads · LVA record 17–7 · average score 86.0–82.0 · LVA has won by 4.1 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

1 Oct · IND 83 at LVA 94LVA won

29 Sep · LVA 89 at IND 99LVA lost

27 Sep · IND 85 at LVA 102LVA won

6 Aug · LVA 86 at IND 84LVA won

12 Jul · IND 109 at LVA 75LVA lost

5 Jul · IND 84 at LVA 68LVA lost

What each defense gives up per game

IND gives up90.7 points · 31.9 rebounds · 20.8 assists · 8.1 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.2% of shots · 34.0% from three-point range · 12.6 opponent turnovers

LVA gives up85.8 points · 34.0 rebounds · 18.6 assists · 8.8 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.2% of shots · 34.5% from three-point range · 13.0 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

IND gives up 90.7 points a game · 12th of 15 · league average 87.0+3.7 vs average

LVA gives up 85.8 points a game · 6th of 15 · league average 87.0about league average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had LVA expected to win by 8.5, expected total 158.5 (Wed 01:25 UTC) and had not changed it by Wed 01:25 UTC.

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 60

sds games/date (2025-09-27)ok 200 · 53 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-24)ok 200 · 54 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 54 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 55 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-22)ok 200 · 55 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-25)ok 200 · 57 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-29)ok 200 · 57 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-26)ok 200 · 110 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-23)ok 200 · 110 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-28)ok 200 · 111 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-20)ok 200 · 111 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 117 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 118 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 123 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 207 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 207 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 209 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-21)ok 200 · 232 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-19)ok 200 · 232 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-18)ok 200 · 232 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-17)ok 200 · 233 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-16)ok 200 · 233 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 234 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 242 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 243 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 253 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 84 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 85 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 308 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 445 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 451 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 93 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 294 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 110 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 111 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 148 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 147 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 148 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 156 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 159 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 198 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 204 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 206 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 207 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 210 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 215 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 216 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 221 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 223 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 223 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 224 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 225 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 233 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 235 ms

odds player timeline (threes)failed 503 · 234 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 239 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 721 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.