WNBA · Oct 3 gameAll props Full sheet

Phoenix Mercury at Las Vegas Aces

FinalPHO 86 – LVA 89Page updated 01:33 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

No saved picks to grade.

Saved picks

0Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes

No playing-time estimates are available.

Picks for this game are not posted yet. The players below are up to date.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Players and minutes8 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

Phoenix Mercury

Alyssa Thomas · minutes unknown

assists 9.5 → 9 actual

Kahleah Copper · minutes unknown

rebounds 3.5 → 4 actual

Sami Whitcomb · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 2 actual

Las Vegas Aces

A'ja Wilson · minutes unknown

assists 2.5 → 5 actual

Chelsea Gray · minutes unknown

points 10.5 → 8 actual

Jackie Young · minutes unknown

rebounds 5.5 → 2 actual

Jewell Loyd · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 18 actual

NaLyssa Smith · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 4 actual

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

LVA expected to win by about 2.5 · both teams together expected to score about 164 points · odds to win: PHO 2.23, LVA 1.70

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference) · observed Fri 23:55 UTC

What could go wrong

updated 01:33 UTC

Who is out

Nobody is listed as injured on either team.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates are available.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

PHO had 48 days off before this game · LVA had 33 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 69 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

In 2 of 6 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

8 other players with a posted line

Jewell Loyd · points 8.5 → 18 · 9.5 above the line · played 34.6 min · no final price

A'ja Wilson · assists 2.5 → 5 · 2.5 above the line · played 38 min · no final price

Jackie Young · rebounds 5.5 → 2 · 3.5 below the line · played 31.7 min · no final price

NaLyssa Smith · points 8.5 → 4 · 4.5 below the line · played 16.4 min · no final price

Sami Whitcomb · 3-pointers 1.5 → 2 · 0.5 above the line · played 22.4 min · no final price

Chelsea Gray · points 10.5 → 8 · 2.5 below the line · played 35.4 min · no final price

Kahleah Copper · rebounds 3.5 → 4 · 0.5 above the line · played 35.6 min · no final price

Alyssa Thomas · assists 9.5 → 9 · 0.5 below the line · played 38 min · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

LVA vs PHO · last 25 games · LVA leads · LVA record 22–3 · average score 92.2–80.2 · LVA has won by 12 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

24 Sep · LVA 100 at PHO 82LVA won

11 Jul · PHO 58 at LVA 106LVA won

17 Jun · LVA 86 at PHO 76LVA won

What each defense gives up per game

PHO gives up87.6 points · 34.0 rebounds · 21.5 assists · 9.7 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.4% of shots · 36.1% from three-point range · 12.9 opponent turnovers

LVA gives up85.8 points · 34.0 rebounds · 18.6 assists · 8.8 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.2% of shots · 34.5% from three-point range · 13.0 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

PHO gives up 87.6 points a game · 8th of 15 · league average 87.0about league average

LVA gives up 85.8 points a game · 6th of 15 · league average 87.0about league average

How the game odds moved

No history of the game odds on file.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 57

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 12 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 13 ms

sds games/date (2025-10-02)ok 200 · 13 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-29)ok 200 · 13 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-27)ok 200 · 14 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-24)ok 200 · 14 ms

sds games/date (2025-10-01)ok 200 · 15 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-22)ok 200 · 19 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 20 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-25)ok 200 · 22 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 23 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-20)ok 200 · 24 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 24 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-28)ok 200 · 26 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 29 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 29 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-30)ok 200 · 34 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-21)ok 200 · 34 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-26)ok 200 · 35 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 34 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 34 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-19)ok 200 · 35 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-23)ok 200 · 35 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 42 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 128 ms

odds game timelinefailed 503 · 128 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 135 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 139 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 158 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 335 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 356 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 223 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 223 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 174 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 175 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 176 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 181 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 180 ms

odds player timeline (assists)failed 503 · 255 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 254 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 256 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 260 ms

odds player timeline (threes)failed 503 · 260 ms

odds player timeline (assists)failed 503 · 260 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 265 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 266 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 270 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 270 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 281 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 349 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 356 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 356 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 362 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 365 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.