WNBA · May 10 gameAll props Full sheet

Las Vegas Aces at Los Angeles Sparks

FinalLVA 105 – LAS 78Page updated 13:10 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

No saved picks to grade.

Saved picks

0Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes

No playing-time estimates are available.

Picks for this game are not posted yet. The players below are up to date.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Players and minutes9 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

Las Vegas Aces

A'ja Wilson · minutes unknown

points 23.5 → 19 actual

Chelsea Gray · minutes unknown

points 10.5 → 16 actual

Jackie Young · minutes unknown

points 15.5 → 20 actual

Jewell Loyd · minutes unknown

points 10.5 → 2 actual

NaLyssa Smith · minutes unknown

points 7.5 → 12 actual

Los Angeles Sparks

Ariel Atkins · minutes unknown

points 11.5 → 8 actual

Dearica Hamby · minutes unknown

points 15.5 → 12 actual

Nneka Ogwumike · minutes unknown

points 16.5 → 19 actual

Rae Burrell · minutes unknown

points 6.5 → 5 actual

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

LVA expected to win by about 2 · both teams together expected to score about 177.5 points · odds to win: LVA 1.81, LAS 2.05

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference) · observed Sun 21:55 UTC

What could go wrong

updated 13:10 UTC

Who is out

Nobody is listed as injured on either team.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates are available.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

LVA also played the day before this game · LAS had 8 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 150 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

In 3 of 4 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

9 other players with a posted line

Jewell Loyd · points 10.5 → 2 · 8.5 below the line · played 26.1 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 2.00, Under 1.77

NaLyssa Smith · points 7.5 → 12 · 4.5 above the line · played 16 min · Caesars odds: Over 1.91, Under 1.83

Chelsea Gray · points 10.5 → 16 · 5.5 above the line · played 32 min · Caesars odds: Over 1.87, Under 1.87

Ariel Atkins · points 11.5 → 8 · 3.5 below the line · played 31.8 min · Caesars odds: Over 1.74, Under 2.02

Jackie Young · points 15.5 → 20 · 4.5 above the line · played 30.9 min · Caesars odds: Over 1.88, Under 1.85

Rae Burrell · points 6.5 → 5 · 1.5 below the line · played 28 min · FanDuel odds: Over 1.98, Under 1.78

Dearica Hamby · points 15.5 → 12 · 3.5 below the line · played 27.2 min · Caesars odds: Over 1.80, Under 1.91

A'ja Wilson · points 23.5 → 19 · 4.5 below the line · played 30 min · Caesars odds: Over 1.89, Under 1.85

Nneka Ogwumike · points 16.5 → 19 · 2.5 above the line · played 32.8 min · Caesars odds: Over 1.83, Under 1.90

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

LAS vs LVA · last 21 games · LVA leads · LAS record 5–16 · average score 79.5–91.3 · LAS has lost by 11.8 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

22 Sep · LAS 79 at LVA 89LAS lost

2 Jun · LVA 79 at LAS 69LAS lost

23 May · LAS 101 at LVA 95LAS won

10 May · LVA 105 at LAS 78LAS lost

11 Sep · LVA 103 at LAS 75LAS lost

What each defense gives up per game

LVA gives up86.2 points · 33.5 rebounds · 18.9 assists · 8.8 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.5% of shots · 34.7% from three-point range · 13.1 opponent turnovers

LAS gives up91.3 points · 35.5 rebounds · 22.2 assists · 8.9 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 47.2% of shots · 33.6% from three-point range · 13.9 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

LVA gives up 86.2 points a game · 7th of 15 · league average 87.2about league average

LAS gives up 91.3 points a game · 14th of 15 · league average 87.2+4.1 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had LVA expected to win by 2, expected total 177.5 (Sun 21:55 UTC) and had not changed it by Sun 21:55 UTC.

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 46

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 25 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 29 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 30 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 113 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 115 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 116 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 118 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 119 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 121 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 6 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 130 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 131 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 139 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 170 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 87 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 91 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 262 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 295 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 102 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 119 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 123 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 126 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 129 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 133 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 135 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 137 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 138 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 138 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 140 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 142 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 143 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 144 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 146 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 148 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 150 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 151 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 2661 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 2674 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 2685 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 2698 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 2697 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 2696 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 2824 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 3136 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 2922 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 4205 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.