WNBA · May 10 gameAll props Full sheet

Phoenix Mercury at Golden State Valkyries

FinalPHO 79 – GSV 95Page updated 12:23 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

No saved picks to grade.

Saved picks

0Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes

No playing-time estimates are available.

Picks for this game are not posted yet. The players below are up to date.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Players and minutes9 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

Phoenix Mercury

Alyssa Thomas · minutes unknown

points 14.5 → 19 actual

Jovana Nogic · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 16 actual

Kahleah Copper · minutes unknown

points 17.5 → 11 actual

Natasha Mack · minutes unknown

points 7.5 → 11 actual

Golden State Valkyries

Gabby Williams · minutes unknown

points 11.5 → 19 actual

Janelle Salaun · minutes unknown

points 12.5 → 21 actual

Kayla Thornton · minutes unknown

points 12.5 → 19 actual

Kiah Stokes · minutes unknown

rebounds 5.5 → 3 actual

Veronica Burton · minutes unknown

points 12.5 → 13 actual

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

GSV expected to win by about 2.5 · both teams together expected to score about 158.5 points · odds to win: PHO 2.15, GSV 1.70

Game odds from 15 bookmakers · observed Mon 00:25 UTC

What could go wrong

updated 12:23 UTC

Who is out

Nobody is listed as injured on either team.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates are available.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

PHO had 8 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 134 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

In 1 of 7 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

9 other players with a posted line

Jovana Nogic · points 8.5 → 16 · 7.5 above the line · played 27.3 min · Caesars odds: Over 1.90, Under 1.83

Janelle Salaun · points 12.5 → 21 · 8.5 above the line · played 26 min · Caesars odds: Over 1.81, Under 1.93

Gabby Williams · points 11.5 → 19 · 7.5 above the line · played 32.2 min · Caesars odds: Over 1.88, Under 1.85

Kayla Thornton · points 12.5 → 19 · 6.5 above the line · played 30.6 min · Caesars odds: Over 1.80, Under 1.93

Natasha Mack · points 7.5 → 11 · 3.5 above the line · played 28.8 min · Caesars odds: Over 1.89, Under 1.83

Kiah Stokes · rebounds 5.5 → 3 · 2.5 below the line · played 12.8 min · Caesars odds: Over 1.80, Under 1.94

Kahleah Copper · points 17.5 → 11 · 6.5 below the line · played 36.4 min · Caesars odds: Over 1.78, Under 1.96

Alyssa Thomas · points 14.5 → 19 · 4.5 above the line · played 37.6 min · Caesars odds: Over 1.80, Under 1.93

Veronica Burton · points 12.5 → 13 · 0.5 above the line · played 32.3 min · Caesars odds: Over 1.89, Under 1.83

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

GSV vs PHO · last 7 games · PHO leads · GSV record 2–5 · average score 84.0–84.9 · GSV has lost by 0.9 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

29 Jul · GSV 89 at PHO 91GSV lost

9 Jun · PHO 81 at GSV 87GSV won

10 May · PHO 79 at GSV 95GSV won

What each defense gives up per game

PHO gives up87.6 points · 34.0 rebounds · 21.5 assists · 9.7 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.4% of shots · 36.1% from three-point range · 12.9 opponent turnovers

GSV gives up75.9 points · 32.5 rebounds · 18.3 assists · 8.1 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 41.7% of shots · 33.0% from three-point range · 13.6 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

PHO gives up 87.6 points a game · 8th of 15 · league average 87.2about league average

GSV gives up 75.9 points a game · 1st of 15 · league average 87.2−11.2 vs average

How the game odds moved

Caesars first had GSV expected to win by 1.5, expected total 153.5 (Sat 22:39 UTC) and later GSV expected to win by 2.5, expected total 158.5 (Mon 00:25 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 46

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 35 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 38 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 42 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 57 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 59 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 63 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 66 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 139 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 177 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 7 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 8 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 188 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 191 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 197 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 221 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 226 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 194 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 334 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 61 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 199 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 204 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 211 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 213 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 217 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 224 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 227 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 235 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 241 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 247 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 254 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 267 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 276 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 281 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 290 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 295 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 302 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 705 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 549 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 554 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 558 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 591 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 596 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 608 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 615 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 632 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 653 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.