WNBA · May 12 gameAll props Full sheet

Minnesota Lynx at Phoenix Mercury

FinalMIN 88 – PHO 84Page updated 14:57 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

No saved picks to grade.

Saved picks

0Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes

No playing-time estimates are available.

Picks for this game are not posted yet. The players below are up to date.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Players and minutes9 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

Minnesota Lynx

Courtney Williams · minutes unknown

points 14.5 → 11 actual

Kayla McBride · minutes unknown

points 15.5 → 14 actual

Natasha Howard · minutes unknown

points 13.5 → 14 actual

Nia Coffey · minutes unknown

points 7.5 → 13 actual

Olivia Miles · minutes unknown

points 13.5 → 13 actual

Phoenix Mercury

Alyssa Thomas · minutes unknown

points 16.5 → 10 actual

Jovana Nogic · minutes unknown

points 11.5 → 2 actual

Kahleah Copper · minutes unknown

points 18.5 → 30 actual

Natasha Mack · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 9 actual

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

PHO expected to win by about 4.5 · both teams together expected to score about 168 points · odds to win: MIN 2.73, PHO 1.49

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference) · observed Wed 01:55 UTC

What could go wrong

updated 14:57 UTC

Who is out

Nobody is listed as injured on either team.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates are available.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

PHO had 8 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 145 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

In 3 of 5 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

9 other players with a posted line

Jovana Nogic · points 11.5 → 2 · 9.5 below the line · played 17.3 min · DraftKings odds: Over 1.87, Under 1.87

Nia Coffey · points 7.5 → 13 · 5.5 above the line · played 20.8 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.88, Under 1.88

Kahleah Copper · points 18.5 → 30 · 11.5 above the line · played 34.7 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.88, Under 1.88

Alyssa Thomas · points 16.5 → 10 · 6.5 below the line · played 34.5 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.88, Under 1.88

Courtney Williams · points 14.5 → 11 · 3.5 below the line · played 30.2 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.86, Under 1.90

Kayla McBride · points 15.5 → 14 · 1.5 below the line · played 32.5 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.81, Under 1.95

Natasha Mack · points 8.5 → 9 · 0.5 above the line · played 27.7 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.88, Under 1.88

Natasha Howard · points 13.5 → 14 · 0.5 above the line · played 28.7 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.80, Under 1.97

Olivia Miles · points 13.5 → 13 · 0.5 below the line · played 25.9 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.99, Under 1.78

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

PHO vs MIN · last 26 games · MIN leads · PHO record 6–20 · average score 79.3–87.5 · PHO has lost by 8.2 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

13 Jul · PHO 100 at MIN 104PHO lost

1 Jun · MIN 111 at PHO 77PHO lost

12 May · MIN 88 at PHO 84PHO lost

28 Sep · MIN 81 at PHO 86PHO won

26 Sep · MIN 76 at PHO 84PHO won

What each defense gives up per game

MIN gives up83.9 points · 33.4 rebounds · 20.5 assists · 9.3 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 43.7% of shots · 33.3% from three-point range · 14.5 opponent turnovers

PHO gives up87.6 points · 34.0 rebounds · 21.5 assists · 9.7 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.4% of shots · 36.1% from three-point range · 12.9 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

MIN gives up 83.9 points a game · 3rd of 15 · league average 87.2−3.3 vs average

PHO gives up 87.6 points a game · 8th of 15 · league average 87.2about league average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had PHO expected to win by 4.5, expected total 168 (Wed 01:55 UTC) and had not changed it by Wed 01:55 UTC.

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 46

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 19 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 98 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 105 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 106 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 107 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 109 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 112 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 7 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 115 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 115 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 117 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 119 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 122 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 130 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 95 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 86 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 315 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 399 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 108 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 110 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 112 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 118 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 120 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 124 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 127 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 128 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 133 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 137 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 139 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 141 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 148 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 150 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 152 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 154 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 170 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1380 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1166 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1181 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1249 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1250 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1251 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1255 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1345 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1403 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.