WNBA · May 12 gameAll props Full sheet

New York Liberty at Portland Fire

FinalNYL 96 – POR 98Page updated 12:23 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

No saved picks to grade.

Saved picks

0Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes

No playing-time estimates are available.

Picks for this game are not posted yet. The players below are up to date.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Players and minutes8 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

New York Liberty

Breanna Stewart · minutes unknown

points 21.5 → 16 actual

Jonquel Jones · minutes unknown

points 15.5 → 17 actual

Marine Johannes · minutes unknown

points 15.5 → 18 actual

Pauline Astier · minutes unknown

points 9.5 → 24 actual

Portland Fire

Bridget Carleton · minutes unknown

points 12.5 → 26 actual

Carla Leite · minutes unknown

points 14.5 → 21 actual

Emily Engstler · minutes unknown

points 6.5 → 6 actual

Luisa Geiselsoder · minutes unknown

rebounds 6.5 → 5 actual

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

NYL expected to win by about 12 · both teams together expected to score about 173.5 points · odds to win: NYL 1.13, POR 6.80

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference) · observed Wed 01:55 UTC

What could go wrong

updated 12:23 UTC

Who is out

Nobody is listed as injured on either team.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates are available.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

POR had 10 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 119 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

One team is expected to win by 10 or more. In past games like this, players went over their lines 65.9% of the time; this does not mean the opposite is a good bet.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

In 2 of 5 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

8 other players with a posted line

Pauline Astier · points 9.5 → 24 · 14.5 above the line · played 29.6 min · FanDuel odds: Over 1.98, Under 1.78

Bridget Carleton · points 12.5 → 26 · 13.5 above the line · played 33 min · DraftKings odds: Over 1.87, Under 1.87

Carla Leite · points 14.5 → 21 · 6.5 above the line · played 25.9 min · DraftKings odds: Over 1.95, Under 1.80

Breanna Stewart · points 21.5 → 16 · 5.5 below the line · played 37.8 min · DraftKings odds: Over 1.95, Under 1.80

Luisa Geiselsoder · rebounds 6.5 → 5 · 1.5 below the line · played 25.2 min · DraftKings odds: Over 1.87, Under 1.87

Marine Johannes · points 15.5 → 18 · 2.5 above the line · played 33.2 min · DraftKings odds: Over 1.91, Under 1.83

Jonquel Jones · points 15.5 → 17 · 1.5 above the line · played 34.5 min · DraftKings odds: Over 1.77, Under 2.00

Emily Engstler · points 6.5 → 6 · 0.5 below the line · played 24.1 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.95, Under 1.81

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

POR vs NYL · last 3 games · POR leads · POR record 2–1 · average score 87.0–90.0 · POR has lost by 3 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

25 May · POR 81 at NYL 74POR won

14 May · NYL 100 at POR 82POR lost

12 May · NYL 96 at POR 98POR won

What each defense gives up per game

NYL gives up86.0 points · 31.3 rebounds · 21.3 assists · 9.0 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.7% of shots · 34.4% from three-point range · 10.9 opponent turnovers

POR gives up91.0 points · 34.0 rebounds · 22.9 assists · 9.3 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.4% of shots · 35.0% from three-point range · 13.6 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

NYL gives up 86.0 points a game · 6th of 15 · league average 87.2about league average

POR gives up 91.0 points a game · 13th of 15 · league average 87.2+3.8 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had NYL expected to win by 12, expected total 173.5 (Wed 01:55 UTC) and had not changed it by Wed 01:55 UTC.

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 43

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 55 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 56 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 68 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 70 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 78 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 81 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 83 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 160 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 211 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 216 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 219 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 13 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 231 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 243 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 96 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 106 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 366 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 422 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 66 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 159 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 163 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 165 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 172 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 183 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 184 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 210 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 243 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 244 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 247 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 249 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 252 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 275 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 276 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 278 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 799 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 531 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 600 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 782 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 792 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 795 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 859 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 934 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.