WNBA · May 15 gameAll props Full sheet

Las Vegas Aces at Connecticut Sun

FinalLVA 101 – CON 94Page updated 10:41 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

No saved picks to grade.

Saved picks

0Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes

No playing-time estimates are available.

Picks for this game are not posted yet. The players below are up to date.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Players and minutes9 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

Las Vegas Aces

A'ja Wilson · minutes unknown

points 23.5 → 45 actual

Chelsea Gray · minutes unknown

points 10.5 → 12 actual

Jackie Young · minutes unknown

points 16.5 → 13 actual

Jewell Loyd · minutes unknown

points 9.5 → 6 actual

NaLyssa Smith · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 4 actual

Connecticut Sun

Brittney Griner · minutes unknown

points 12.5 → no final stat available

Diamond Miller · minutes unknown

points 10.5 → 10 actual

Hailey Van Lith · minutes unknown

points 9.5 → 17 actual

Saniya Rivers · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 14 actual

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

LVA expected to win by about 15 · both teams together expected to score about 172.5 points · odds to win: LVA 1.09, CON 8.97

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference) · observed Fri 23:25 UTC

What could go wrong

updated 10:41 UTC

Who is out

Nobody is listed as injured on either team.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates are available.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

LVA also played the day before this game · CON had 8 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 107 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

One team is expected to win by 10 or more. In past games like this, players went over their lines 65.9% of the time; this does not mean the opposite is a good bet.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

In 2 of 2 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

9 other players with a posted line

A'ja Wilson · points 23.5 → 45 · 21.5 above the line · played 32.2 min · FanDuel odds: Over 1.82, Under 1.94

Hailey Van Lith · points 9.5 → 17 · 7.5 above the line · played 21.6 min · no final price

Saniya Rivers · points 8.5 → 14 · 5.5 above the line · played 28.1 min · DraftKings odds: Over 1.95, Under 1.80

NaLyssa Smith · points 8.5 → 4 · 4.5 below the line · played 17.3 min · FanDuel odds: Over 1.96, Under 1.80

Jewell Loyd · points 9.5 → 6 · 3.5 below the line · played 26.9 min · FanDuel odds: Over 2.02, Under 1.76

Jackie Young · points 16.5 → 13 · 3.5 below the line · played 31.4 min · FanDuel odds: Over 1.93, Under 1.83

Chelsea Gray · points 10.5 → 12 · 1.5 above the line · played 31.2 min · FanDuel odds: Over 1.85, Under 1.91

Diamond Miller · points 10.5 → 10 · 0.5 below the line · played 14.5 min · FanDuel odds: Over 1.88, Under 1.87

Brittney Griner · points 12.5 → no final stat available · Caesars odds: Over 1.83, Under 1.91

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

CON vs LVA · last 20 games · LVA leads · CON record 3–17 · average score 78.1–86.9 · CON has lost by 8.8 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

20 Aug · CON 78 at LVA 101CON lost

15 May · LVA 101 at CON 94CON lost

13 May · LVA 98 at CON 69CON lost

What each defense gives up per game

LVA gives up86.2 points · 33.5 rebounds · 18.9 assists · 8.8 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.5% of shots · 34.7% from three-point range · 13.1 opponent turnovers

CON gives up87.7 points · 33.9 rebounds · 19.9 assists · 8.0 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.3% of shots · 34.9% from three-point range · 13.5 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

LVA gives up 86.2 points a game · 7th of 15 · league average 87.2about league average

CON gives up 87.7 points a game · 9th of 15 · league average 87.2about league average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had LVA expected to win by 15, expected total 172.5 (Fri 23:25 UTC) and had not changed it by Fri 23:25 UTC.

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 46

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 16 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 18 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 19 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 20 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 21 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 22 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 23 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 30 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 31 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 34 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 109 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 113 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 8 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 9 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 144 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 125 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 147 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 64 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 224 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 108 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 179 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 182 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 186 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 192 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 197 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 203 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 207 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 208 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 239 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 243 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 246 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 248 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 250 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 339 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 349 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 392 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 807 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 815 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 816 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 817 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 937 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1306 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1308 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1311 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1310 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1311 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.