WNBA · Finalupdated 14:45 UTC

Chicago Sky vs Minnesota Lynx

at Minnesota Lynx

MIN expected to win by about 5 · both teams together expected to score about 166 points · odds to win: CHI 3.04, MIN 1.41

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Sun 22:55 UTC

CHI 86 – MIN 79

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: CHI = Chicago Sky, MIN = Minnesota Lynx.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Picks for this game are not posted yet. The players below are up to date.

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

9 players checked · 2 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 1 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 10 players have performed clearly differently and 1 shows a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Chicago Skyplaying MIN

Gabriela Jaquez · minutes unknown

points 9.5 → 20 actual

Jacy Sheldon · minutes unknown

points 9.5 → 10 actual

Kamilla Cardoso · minutes unknown

points 13.5 → 11 actual

Natasha Cloud · minutes unknown

points 10.5 → 11 actual

Skylar Diggins · Out · eye

points 15.5 → no final stat available

Minnesota Lynxplaying CHI

Courtney Williams · minutes unknown

points 14.5 → 17 actual

Kayla McBride · minutes unknown

points 15.5 → 20 actual

Natasha Howard · minutes unknown

points 14.5 → 17 actual

Nia Coffey · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 2 actual

Olivia Miles · minutes unknown

points 15.5 → 13 actual

What could go wrong

updated 14:45 UTC

Who is out

Out Carrington · earlier listed as available (changed Wed 00:15 UTC) · 4, 18 and 19 min in the last 3 games

Cechova · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sun 16:00 UTC) · 11, 22 and 19 min in the last 3 games

Collier · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sun 21:45 UTC) · 33, 33 and 25 min in the last 3 games

Westbeld · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Mon 22:00 UTC) · 13, 14 and 9 min in the last 3 games

Out Diggins · earlier listed as available (changed Wed 04:10 UTC) · 34, 28 and 23 min in the last 3 games

Out Vandersloot · right knee · CHI

Out Onyenwere · left knee · CHI

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

CHI had 8 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 114 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Carrington out (Wed 00:15 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Cechova out (Sun 16:00 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Collier out (Sun 21:45 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Vandersloot out · played

Flagged before the game: Westbeld out (Mon 22:00 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Onyenwere out · played

Flagged before the game: Diggins out (Wed 04:10 UTC) · played

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 0 of 2 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

10 other players with a posted line

Gabriela Jaquez · points 9.5 → 20 · 10.5 above the line · played 31.7 min · FanDuel odds: Over 2.02, Under 1.76

Nia Coffey · points 8.5 → 2 · 6.5 below the line · played 25.1 min · Caesars odds: Over 1.77, Under 1.98

Kayla McBride · points 15.5 → 20 · 4.5 above the line · played 39.9 min · Caesars odds: Over 1.89, Under 1.83

Kamilla Cardoso · points 13.5 → 11 · 2.5 below the line · played 26.4 min · FanDuel odds: Over 1.88, Under 1.87

Courtney Williams · points 14.5 → 17 · 2.5 above the line · played 30.3 min · Caesars odds: Over 1.75, Under 2.01

Natasha Howard · points 14.5 → 17 · 2.5 above the line · played 29.4 min · FanDuel odds: Over 1.88, Under 1.88

Olivia Miles · points 15.5 → 13 · 2.5 below the line · played 34.6 min · FanDuel odds: Over 1.83, Under 1.93

Jacy Sheldon · points 9.5 → 10 · 0.5 above the line · played 31.7 min · FanDuel odds: Over 2.00, Under 1.77

Natasha Cloud · points 10.5 → 11 · 0.5 above the line · played 31.7 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.77, Under 2.00

Skylar Diggins · points 15.5 → no final stat available · FanDuel odds: Over 1.82, Under 1.94

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

MIN vs CHI · last 16 games · MIN leads · MIN record 10–6 · average score 81.4–76.6 · MIN has won by 4.9 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

29 May · MIN 79 at CHI 58MIN won

23 May · MIN 85 at CHI 75MIN won

17 May · CHI 86 at MIN 79MIN lost

What each defense gives up per game

CHI gives up90.7 points · 37.1 rebounds · 20.7 assists · 8.2 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.9% of shots · 33.8% from three-point range · 12.9 opponent turnovers

MIN gives up83.9 points · 33.4 rebounds · 20.5 assists · 9.3 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 43.7% of shots · 33.3% from three-point range · 14.5 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

CHI gives up 90.7 points a game · 11th of 15 · league average 87.2+3.5 vs average

MIN gives up 83.9 points a game · 3rd of 15 · league average 87.2−3.3 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had MIN expected to win by 5, expected total 166 (Sun 22:55 UTC) and had not changed it by Sun 22:55 UTC.

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 49

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 116 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 116 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 125 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 126 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 127 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 131 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 240 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 271 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 7 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 289 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 301 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 329 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 332 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 92 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 89 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 442 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 540 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 41 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 583 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 119 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 122 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 126 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 129 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 131 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 148 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 151 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 157 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 159 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 162 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 168 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 183 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 191 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 193 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 200 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 209 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 221 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 229 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 231 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1316 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1865 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1528 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1530 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 2357 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 2358 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 2359 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 2625 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.