WNBA · May 17 gameAll props Full sheet

Las Vegas Aces at Atlanta Dream

FinalLVA 85 – ATL 84Page updated 14:58 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

No saved picks to grade.

Saved picks

0Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes · 3 availability alerts

Out Jones · earlier listed as available

Out Evans · earlier listed as available

Out Howard · ATL

No playing-time estimates are available.

Picks for this game are not posted yet. The players below are up to date.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Availability to check

Out Jones · earlier listed as available · Sat 21:00 UTC · 5, 20 and 22 min in the last 3 games

Out Evans · earlier listed as available · Thu 19:30 UTC · 15, 4 and 14 min in the last 3 games

Out Howard · ATL

Players and minutes10 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

Las Vegas Aces

A'ja Wilson · minutes unknown

points 23.5 → 20 actual

Chelsea Gray · minutes unknown

points 10.5 → 21 actual

Jackie Young · minutes unknown

points 15.5 → 0 actual

Jewell Loyd · minutes unknown

points 7.5 → 7 actual

NaLyssa Smith · minutes unknown

points 7.5 → 13 actual

Atlanta Dream

Allisha Gray · minutes unknown

points 18.5 → 25 actual

Angel Reese · minutes unknown

points 12.5 → 9 actual

Jordin Canada · minutes unknown

points 12.5 → 11 actual

Naz Hillmon · minutes unknown

points 10.5 → 6 actual

Rhyne Howard · Out

points 17.5 → no final stat available

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

Game odds unavailable.

What could go wrong

updated 14:58 UTC

Who is out

Out Jones · earlier listed as available (changed Sat 21:00 UTC) · 5, 20 and 22 min in the last 3 games

Out Evans · earlier listed as available (changed Thu 19:30 UTC) · 15, 4 and 14 min in the last 3 games

Out Howard · ATL

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates are available.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

LVA also played the day before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 134 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Jones out (Sat 21:00 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Howard out · played

Flagged before the game: Evans out (Thu 19:30 UTC) · played

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

In 1 of 4 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

10 other players with a posted line

Chelsea Gray · points 10.5 → 21 · 10.5 above the line · played 32.7 min · Caesars odds: Over 1.81, Under 1.93

Jackie Young · points 15.5 → 0 · 15.5 below the line · played 34 min · Caesars odds: Over 1.78, Under 1.98

NaLyssa Smith · points 7.5 → 13 · 5.5 above the line · played 20 min · Caesars odds: Over 2.02, Under 1.74

Naz Hillmon · points 10.5 → 6 · 4.5 below the line · played 30.1 min · Caesars odds: Over 1.83, Under 1.89

Allisha Gray · points 18.5 → 25 · 6.5 above the line · played 37 min · Caesars odds: Over 1.83, Under 1.89

Angel Reese · points 12.5 → 9 · 3.5 below the line · played 29.3 min · Caesars odds: Over 1.89, Under 1.83

A'ja Wilson · points 23.5 → 20 · 3.5 below the line · played 31.2 min · Caesars odds: Over 1.78, Under 1.95

Jordin Canada · points 12.5 → 11 · 1.5 below the line · played 33.3 min · Caesars odds: Over 1.76, Under 1.98

Jewell Loyd · points 7.5 → 7 · 0.5 below the line · played 29.5 min · Caesars odds: Over 1.95, Under 1.79

Rhyne Howard · points 17.5 → no final stat available · FanDuel odds: Over 1.93, Under 1.83

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

ATL vs LVA · last 16 games · LVA leads · ATL record 3–13 · average score 80.4–88.2 · ATL has lost by 7.8 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

18 Aug · ATL 97 at LVA 82ATL won

3 Aug · LVA 109 at ATL 87ATL lost

17 May · LVA 85 at ATL 84ATL lost

What each defense gives up per game

LVA gives up86.2 points · 33.5 rebounds · 18.9 assists · 8.8 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.5% of shots · 34.7% from three-point range · 13.1 opponent turnovers

ATL gives up84.1 points · 31.6 rebounds · 18.9 assists · 8.0 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.6% of shots · 34.7% from three-point range · 15.6 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

LVA gives up 86.2 points a game · 7th of 15 · league average 87.2about league average

ATL gives up 84.1 points a game · 4th of 15 · league average 87.2−3.1 vs average

How the game odds moved

FanDuel first had ATL expected to win by 1.5, expected total 171.5 (Sat 04:13 UTC) and later LVA expected to win by 3.5, expected total 172.5 (Sun 16:10 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 49

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 19 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 20 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 20 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 21 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 26 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 96 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 6 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 6 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 105 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 109 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 113 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 115 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 118 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 120 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 146 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 88 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 305 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 174 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 177 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 184 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 190 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 192 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 194 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 194 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 231 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 233 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 244 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 242 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 249 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 251 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 255 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 259 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 260 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 261 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 266 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 268 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 739 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 2378 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 2376 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 2375 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 2377 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 2379 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 2689 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 2434 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 2436 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 3308 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 3304 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.