WNBA · Finalupdated 13:07 UTC

Connecticut Sun vs Seattle Storm

at Seattle Storm

SEA expected to win by about 2 · both teams together expected to score about 167.5 points · odds to win: CON 2.15, SEA 1.73

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference) and 1 other bookmaker, Thu 01:55 UTC

CON 80 – SEA 78

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: CON = Connecticut Sun, SEA = Seattle Storm.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Picks for this game are not posted yet. The players below are up to date.

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

10 players checked · 6 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 10 players have performed clearly differently and 1 shows a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Connecticut Sunplaying SEA

Aaliyah Edwards · minutes unknown

points 9.5 → 12 actual

Brittney Griner · minutes unknown

points 13.5 → no final stat available

Diamond Miller · minutes unknown

points 4.5 → 2 actual

Hailey Van Lith · minutes unknown

points 9.5 → 0 actual

Saniya Rivers · minutes unknown

points 9.5 → 2 actual

Seattle Stormplaying CON

Dominique Malonga · minutes unknown

points 16.5 → no final stat available

Flau'jae Johnson · minutes unknown

points 15.5 → 5 actual

Jade Melbourne · minutes unknown

assists 4.5 → 3 actual

Natisha Hiedeman · minutes unknown

points 11.5 → 20 actual

Stefanie Dolson · minutes unknown

points 9.5 → 3 actual

What could go wrong

updated 13:07 UTC

Who is out

Out Magbegor · earlier listed as available (changed Thu 00:00 UTC) · 28, 22 and 25 min in the last 3 games

Out Nelson-Ododa · earlier listed as available (changed Sat 20:45 UTC) · 16, 10 and 24 min in the last 3 games

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

CON had 8 days off before this game · SEA had 9 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 12 of the 77 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Magbegor out (Thu 00:00 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Nelson-Ododa out (Sat 20:45 UTC) · played

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 3 of 5 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

10 other players with a posted line

Hailey Van Lith · points 9.5 → 0 · 9.5 below the line · played 11.8 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.77, Under 2.01

Saniya Rivers · points 9.5 → 2 · 7.5 below the line · played 13.1 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.91, Under 1.83

Natisha Hiedeman · points 11.5 → 20 · 8.5 above the line · played 30.3 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.71, Under 2.05

Stefanie Dolson · points 9.5 → 3 · 6.5 below the line · played 27.8 min · Caesars odds: Over 1.77, Under 1.98

Flau'jae Johnson · points 15.5 → 5 · 10.5 below the line · played 15.8 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.78, Under 1.97

Diamond Miller · points 4.5 → 2 · 2.5 below the line · played 15 min · no final price

Jade Melbourne · assists 4.5 → 3 · 1.5 below the line · played 29.6 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 2.06, Under 1.73

Aaliyah Edwards · points 9.5 → 12 · 2.5 above the line · played 26.9 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.97, Under 1.80

Brittney Griner · points 13.5 → no final stat available · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.78, Under 1.96

Dominique Malonga · points 16.5 → no final stat available · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.78, Under 1.97

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

SEA vs CON · last 16 games · CON leads · SEA record 7–9 · average score 80.9–80.3 · SEA has won by 0.6 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

22 May · CON 59 at SEA 77SEA won

20 May · CON 80 at SEA 78SEA lost

10 May · SEA 89 at CON 82SEA won

What each defense gives up per game

CON gives up87.7 points · 33.9 rebounds · 19.9 assists · 8.0 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.3% of shots · 34.9% from three-point range · 13.5 opponent turnovers

SEA gives up88.9 points · 36.3 rebounds · 21.1 assists · 8.8 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.0% of shots · 32.7% from three-point range · 12.8 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

CON gives up 87.7 points a game · 9th of 15 · league average 87.2about league average

SEA gives up 88.9 points a game · 10th of 15 · league average 87.2+1.8 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had SEA expected to win by 3, expected total 167.5 (Wed 01:13 UTC) and later SEA expected to win by 2.5, expected total 168.5 (Thu 01:55 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 49

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 18 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 21 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 21 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 23 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 24 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 26 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 26 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 28 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 97 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 5 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 7 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 115 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 121 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 123 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 138 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 92 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 272 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 479 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 81 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 94 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 97 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 151 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 153 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 156 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 161 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 169 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 173 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 183 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 239 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 246 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 249 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 260 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 262 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 268 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 270 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 306 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 399 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 444 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 926 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 940 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 941 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 942 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1452 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1038 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1087 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1096 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1232 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.