WNBA · Finalupdated 12:26 UTC

Portland Fire vs Indiana Fever

at Indiana Fever

IND expected to win by about 10.5 · both teams together expected to score about 180 points

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Wed 22:10 UTC

POR 73 – IND 90

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: POR = Portland Fire, IND = Indiana Fever.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Picks for this game are not posted yet. The players below are up to date.

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

11 players checked · 7 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 1 of 11 players has performed clearly differently and 0 show a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Portland Fireplaying IND

Bridget Carleton · minutes unknown

points 15.5 → 16 actual

Carla Leite · minutes unknown

points 15.5 → 6 actual

Emily Engstler · minutes unknown

rebounds 3.5 → 2 actual

Luisa Geiselsoder · minutes unknown

points 7.5 → 4 actual

Indiana Feverplaying POR

Aliyah Boston · minutes unknown

points 15.5 → 24 actual

Caitlin Clark · minutes unknown

points 22.5 → no final stat available

Kelsey Mitchell · minutes unknown

points 22.5 → 21 actual

Lexie Hull · minutes unknown

points 7.5 → 16 actual

Monique Billings · minutes unknown

points 7.5 → 9 actual

Myisha Hines-Allen · minutes unknown

points 10.5 → 7 actual

Sophie Cunningham · minutes unknown

points 9.5 → 2 actual

What could go wrong

updated 12:26 UTC

Who is out

May not play Leite · right ankle (ankle) · POR

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

POR had 10 days off before this game · IND also played the day before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 15 of the 102 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

One team is expected to win by 10 or more. In past games like this, players went over their lines 65.9% of the time; this does not mean the opposite is a good bet.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 2 of 6 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

11 other players with a posted line

Lexie Hull · points 7.5 → 16 · 8.5 above the line · played 21.9 min · no final price

Sophie Cunningham · points 9.5 → 2 · 7.5 below the line · played 15.2 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.85, Under 1.91

Carla Leite · points 15.5 → 6 · 9.5 below the line · played 14 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.91, Under 1.83

Aliyah Boston · points 15.5 → 24 · 8.5 above the line · played 21.4 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.89, Under 1.85

Luisa Geiselsoder · points 7.5 → 4 · 3.5 below the line · played 21.7 min · FanDuel odds: Over 1.94, Under 1.82

Emily Engstler · rebounds 3.5 → 2 · 1.5 below the line · played 20.8 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 2.13, Under 1.68

Myisha Hines-Allen · points 10.5 → 7 · 3.5 below the line · played 18.2 min · no final price

Monique Billings · points 7.5 → 9 · 1.5 above the line · played 20.7 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.71, Under 2.06

Kelsey Mitchell · points 22.5 → 21 · 1.5 below the line · played 28.2 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.94, Under 1.81

Bridget Carleton · points 15.5 → 16 · 0.5 above the line · played 25 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.08, Under 1.69

Caitlin Clark · points 22.5 → no final stat available · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.05, Under 1.71

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

IND vs POR · last 3 games · IND leads · IND record 2–1 · average score 95.3–90.3 · IND has won by 5 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

31 Jul · IND 112 at POR 98IND won

30 May · IND 84 at POR 100IND lost

20 May · POR 73 at IND 90IND won

What each defense gives up per game

POR gives up91.0 points · 34.0 rebounds · 22.9 assists · 9.3 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.4% of shots · 35.0% from three-point range · 13.6 opponent turnovers

IND gives up90.7 points · 31.9 rebounds · 20.8 assists · 8.1 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.2% of shots · 34.0% from three-point range · 12.6 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

POR gives up 91.0 points a game · 13th of 15 · league average 87.2+3.8 vs average

IND gives up 90.7 points a game · 12th of 15 · league average 87.2+3.5 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had IND expected to win by 13.5, expected total 181 (Wed 04:15 UTC) and later IND expected to win by 10, expected total 175 (Wed 22:55 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 52

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 13 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 16 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 18 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 22 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 22 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 24 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 25 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 25 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 30 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 39 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 125 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 128 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 132 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 118 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 138 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 9 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 10 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 318 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 206 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 207 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 226 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 238 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 251 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 255 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 257 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 261 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 268 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 270 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 277 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 279 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 286 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 288 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 307 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 318 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 323 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 326 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 359 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 389 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 418 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 455 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1844 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1943 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 2052 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 2212 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 2134 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 2141 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 2142 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 2257 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 2258 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 2258 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 2259 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.