WNBA · May 21 gameAll props Full sheet

Los Angeles Sparks at Phoenix Mercury

FinalLAS 97 – PHO 88Page updated 09:47 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

No saved picks to grade.

Saved picks

0Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes · 1 availability alert

Out Feagin · earlier listed as available

No playing-time estimates are available.

Picks for this game are not posted yet. The players below are up to date.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Availability to check

Out Feagin · earlier listed as available · Mon 23:30 UTC · 6, 1 and 3 min in the last 3 games

Players and minutes11 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

Los Angeles Sparks

Ariel Atkins · minutes unknown

points 10.5 → 11 actual

Cameron Brink · minutes unknown

rebounds 3.5 → 5 actual

Dearica Hamby · minutes unknown

rebounds 7.5 → 15 actual

Erica Wheeler · minutes unknown

assists 4.5 → 4 actual

Nneka Ogwumike · minutes unknown

points 16.5 → 12 actual

Rae Burrell · minutes unknown

points 7.5 → 12 actual

Phoenix Mercury

Alyssa Thomas · minutes unknown

points 16.5 → 23 actual

Jovana Nogic · minutes unknown

points 13.5 → 15 actual

Kahleah Copper · minutes unknown

points 18.5 → 22 actual

Kelsey Plum · minutes unknown

points 20.5 → 16 actual

Natasha Mack · minutes unknown

points 9.5 → 10 actual

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

PHO expected to win by about 3.5 · both teams together expected to score about 178.5 points · odds to win: LAS 2.15, PHO 1.73

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference) and 1 other bookmaker · observed Fri 01:39 UTC

What could go wrong

updated 09:47 UTC

Who is out

Whitcomb · earlier listed as likely to play, now available (changed Thu 00:00 UTC) · 19, 15 and 25 min in the last 3 games

Out Feagin · earlier listed as available (changed Mon 23:30 UTC) · 6, 1 and 3 min in the last 3 games

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates are available.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

LAS had 8 days off before this game · PHO had 8 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 22 of the 209 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Whitcomb out (Thu 00:00 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Feagin out (Mon 23:30 UTC) · played

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

In 2 of 7 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

11 other players with a posted line

Dearica Hamby · rebounds 7.5 → 15 · 7.5 above the line · played 29.6 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.93, Under 1.82

Rae Burrell · points 7.5 → 12 · 4.5 above the line · played 21.6 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.91, Under 1.83

Cameron Brink · rebounds 3.5 → 5 · 1.5 above the line · played 19.2 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.57, Under 2.30

Alyssa Thomas · points 16.5 → 23 · 6.5 above the line · played 35.4 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.83, Under 1.92

Nneka Ogwumike · points 16.5 → 12 · 4.5 below the line · played 31.2 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.82, Under 1.93

Kelsey Plum · points 20.5 → 16 · 4.5 below the line · played 33.7 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.69, Under 2.09

Kahleah Copper · points 18.5 → 22 · 3.5 above the line · played 35.7 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.83, Under 1.92

Erica Wheeler · assists 4.5 → 4 · 0.5 below the line · played 26.1 min · FanDuel odds: Over 1.72, Under 2.04

Jovana Nogic · points 13.5 → 15 · 1.5 above the line · played 29.7 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.74, Under 2.02

Natasha Mack · points 9.5 → 10 · 0.5 above the line · played 28 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.93, Under 1.82

Ariel Atkins · points 10.5 → 11 · 0.5 above the line · played 24.1 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.93, Under 1.81

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

PHO vs LAS · last 20 games · PHO leads · PHO record 12–8 · average score 85.6–85.4 · PHO has won by 0.2 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

11 Aug · PHO 94 at LAS 87PHO won

22 Jul · PHO 86 at LAS 82PHO won

13 Jun · LAS 111 at PHO 102PHO lost

21 May · LAS 97 at PHO 88PHO lost

What each defense gives up per game

LAS gives up91.3 points · 35.5 rebounds · 22.2 assists · 8.9 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 47.2% of shots · 33.6% from three-point range · 13.9 opponent turnovers

PHO gives up87.6 points · 34.0 rebounds · 21.5 assists · 9.7 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.4% of shots · 36.1% from three-point range · 12.9 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

LAS gives up 91.3 points a game · 14th of 15 · league average 87.2+4.1 vs average

PHO gives up 87.6 points a game · 8th of 15 · league average 87.2about league average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had PHO expected to win by 3, expected total 176.5 (Thu 05:45 UTC) and later PHO expected to win by 2.5, expected total 177.5 (Fri 01:39 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 52

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 87 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 78 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 104 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 191 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 128 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 210 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 240 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 8 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 246 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 251 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 252 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 254 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 256 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 259 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 260 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 278 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 99 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 491 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 241 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 247 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 255 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 261 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 274 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 276 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 278 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 294 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 296 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 297 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 304 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 317 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 320 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 324 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 339 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 340 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 346 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 349 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 357 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 364 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 369 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 372 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1029 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 771 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 772 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 838 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 1055 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1070 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1098 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1105 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1159 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 1156 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1160 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.