WNBA · Finalupdated 14:45 UTC

Golden State Valkyries vs Indiana Fever

at Indiana Fever

IND expected to win by about 5 · both teams together expected to score about 167 points · odds to win: GSV 2.80, IND 1.47

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference) and 4 other bookmakers, Fri 23:24 UTC

GSV 82 – IND 90

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: GSV = Golden State Valkyries, IND = Indiana Fever.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Picks for this game are not posted yet. The players below are up to date.

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

12 players checked · 7 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 12 players have performed clearly differently and 1 shows a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Golden State Valkyriesplaying IND

Gabby Williams · minutes unknown

points 14.5 → 6 actual

Janelle Salaun · minutes unknown

points 12.5 → 4 actual

Kayla Thornton · minutes unknown

points 12.5 → 10 actual

Kiah Stokes · minutes unknown

rebounds 4.5 → 7 actual

Tiffany Hayes · minutes unknown

points 9.5 → 19 actual

Veronica Burton · minutes unknown

points 13.5 → 17 actual

Indiana Feverplaying GSV

Aliyah Boston · minutes unknown

points 15.5 → 20 actual

Caitlin Clark · minutes unknown

points 19.5 → 22 actual

Kelsey Mitchell · minutes unknown

points 21.5 → 19 actual

Lexie Hull · minutes unknown

points 7.5 → 7 actual

Monique Billings · minutes unknown

points 7.5 → 2 actual

Sophie Cunningham · minutes unknown

points 7.5 → 11 actual

What could go wrong

updated 14:45 UTC

Who is out

Hall · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Fri 21:00 UTC) · 14, 2 and 1 min in the last 3 games

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

IND also played the day before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 23 of the 249 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Hall out (Fri 21:00 UTC) · played

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 6 of 7 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

12 other players with a posted line

Tiffany Hayes · points 9.5 → 19 · 9.5 above the line · played 25.9 min · no final price

Monique Billings · points 7.5 → 2 · 5.5 below the line · played 11.4 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.92, Under 1.82

Janelle Salaun · points 12.5 → 4 · 8.5 below the line · played 21 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.09, Under 1.69

Gabby Williams · points 14.5 → 6 · 8.5 below the line · played 22.2 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.14, Under 1.66

Kiah Stokes · rebounds 4.5 → 7 · 2.5 above the line · played 23 min · DraftKings odds: Over 1.78, Under 1.95

Sophie Cunningham · points 7.5 → 11 · 3.5 above the line · played 28.5 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.93, Under 1.82

Aliyah Boston · points 15.5 → 20 · 4.5 above the line · played 29.5 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.17, Under 1.65

Veronica Burton · points 13.5 → 17 · 3.5 above the line · played 28.6 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.83, Under 1.91

Kayla Thornton · points 12.5 → 10 · 2.5 below the line · played 27.2 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.81, Under 1.93

Caitlin Clark · points 19.5 → 22 · 2.5 above the line · played 32.1 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.12, Under 1.67

Kelsey Mitchell · points 21.5 → 19 · 2.5 below the line · played 31.2 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.02, Under 1.74

Lexie Hull · points 7.5 → 7 · 0.5 below the line · played 23.9 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.02, Under 1.74

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

IND vs GSV · last 6 games · GSV leads · IND record 1–5 · average score 75.7–83.8 · IND has lost by 8.2 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

15 Jul · GSV 88 at IND 75IND lost

28 May · IND 88 at GSV 90IND lost

22 May · GSV 82 at IND 90IND won

What each defense gives up per game

GSV gives up75.9 points · 32.5 rebounds · 18.3 assists · 8.1 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 41.7% of shots · 33.0% from three-point range · 13.6 opponent turnovers

IND gives up90.7 points · 31.9 rebounds · 20.8 assists · 8.1 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.2% of shots · 34.0% from three-point range · 12.6 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

GSV gives up 75.9 points a game · 1st of 15 · league average 87.2−11.2 vs average

IND gives up 90.7 points a game · 12th of 15 · league average 87.2+3.5 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had IND expected to win by 7, expected total 169 (Fri 04:11 UTC) and later IND expected to win by 5, expected total 167 (Fri 23:24 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 55

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 158 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 184 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 186 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 213 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 217 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 221 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 224 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 226 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 12 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 13 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 231 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 239 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 241 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 248 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 250 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 114 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 497 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 504 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 188 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 201 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 222 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 231 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 266 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 272 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 277 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 284 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 289 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 290 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 298 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 302 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 305 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 311 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 322 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 333 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 337 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 340 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 351 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 355 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 365 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 369 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 372 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 415 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1214 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1225 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1224 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1256 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1839 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1823 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1822 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1823 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 1821 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1823 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1832 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 2110 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 3391 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.