WNBA · Finalupdated 12:28 UTC

Connecticut Sun vs Chicago Sky

at Chicago Sky

CHI expected to win by about 6 · both teams together expected to score about 164 points · odds to win: CON 3.17, CHI 1.38

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Fri 23:43 UTC

CON 80 – CHI 85

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: CON = Connecticut Sun, CHI = Chicago Sky.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Picks for this game are not posted yet. The players below are up to date.

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

11 players checked · 6 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 1 of 11 players has performed clearly differently and 2 show a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Connecticut Sunplaying CHI

Brittney Griner · minutes unknown

points 12.5 → 16 actual

Diamond Miller · minutes unknown

points 7.5 → 16 actual

Leila Lacan · minutes unknown

points 13.5 → 3 actual

Saniya Rivers · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 14 actual

Chicago Skyplaying CON

Azura Stevens · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 13 actual

Jacy Sheldon · minutes unknown

points 7.5 → 5 actual

Kamilla Cardoso · minutes unknown

points 13.5 → 10 actual

Natasha Cloud · minutes unknown

points 9.5 → 13 actual

Rachel Banham · minutes unknown

3-pointers 0.5 → 1 actual

Skylar Diggins · minutes unknown

points 15.5 → 24 actual

Sydney Taylor · minutes unknown

points 9.5 → 4 actual

What could go wrong

updated 12:28 UTC

Who is out

Out Coulibaly · earlier listed as may not play (changed Tue 23:00 UTC) · 15, 15 and 13 min in the last 3 games

Westbeld · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Mon 22:00 UTC) · 13, 14 and 9 min in the last 3 games

Edwards · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Mon 20:15 UTC) · 17, 27 and 31 min in the last 3 games

Out Burke · earlier listed as available (changed Wed 23:30 UTC) · 22, 33 and 31 min in the last 3 games

Out Vandersloot · right knee (knee) · CHI

Out Jaquez · left knee (knee) · CHI

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

CON had 8 days off before this game · CHI had 8 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 12 of the 119 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Coulibaly out (Tue 23:00 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Vandersloot out · played

Flagged before the game: Jaquez out · played

Flagged before the game: Westbeld out (Mon 22:00 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Edwards out (Mon 20:15 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Burke out (Wed 23:30 UTC) · played

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 4 of 6 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

11 other players with a posted line

Diamond Miller · points 7.5 → 16 · 8.5 above the line · played 28 min · FanDuel odds: Over 1.76, Under 2.02

Rachel Banham · 3-pointers 0.5 → 1 · 0.5 above the line · played 21.9 min · FanDuel odds: Over 1.41, Under 2.78

Leila Lacan · points 13.5 → 3 · 10.5 below the line · played 33.5 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.92, Under 1.83

Saniya Rivers · points 8.5 → 14 · 5.5 above the line · played 23.3 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.87, Under 1.87

Sydney Taylor · points 9.5 → 4 · 5.5 below the line · played 13 min · BetRivers odds: Over 1.60, Under —

Skylar Diggins · points 15.5 → 24 · 8.5 above the line · played 32.3 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.81, Under 1.93

Azura Stevens · points 8.5 → 13 · 4.5 above the line · played 20.4 min · BetRivers odds: Over 1.87, Under —

Natasha Cloud · points 9.5 → 13 · 3.5 above the line · played 26 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.08, Under 1.70

Jacy Sheldon · points 7.5 → 5 · 2.5 below the line · played 26.9 min · DraftKings odds: Over 1.91, Under 1.83

Brittney Griner · points 12.5 → 16 · 3.5 above the line · played 29 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.79, Under 1.95

Kamilla Cardoso · points 13.5 → 10 · 3.5 below the line · played 32.6 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.86, Under 1.88

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

CHI vs CON · last 25 games · CON leads · CHI record 11–14 · average score 79.0–82.7 · CHI has lost by 3.7 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

25 Aug · CHI 81 at CON 87CHI lost

30 Jul · CON 88 at CHI 94CHI won

22 Jun · CHI 63 at CON 92CHI lost

5 Jun · CON 80 at CHI 85CHI won

3 Sep · CON 64 at CHI 88CHI won

What each defense gives up per game

CON gives up87.7 points · 33.9 rebounds · 19.9 assists · 8.0 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.3% of shots · 34.9% from three-point range · 13.5 opponent turnovers

CHI gives up90.7 points · 37.1 rebounds · 20.7 assists · 8.2 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.9% of shots · 33.8% from three-point range · 12.9 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

CON gives up 87.7 points a game · 9th of 15 · league average 87.2about league average

CHI gives up 90.7 points a game · 11th of 15 · league average 87.2+3.5 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had CHI expected to win by 7.5, expected total 163.5 (Fri 01:05 UTC) and later CHI expected to win by 6, expected total 164 (Fri 23:43 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 52

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 57 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 58 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 59 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 63 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 66 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 68 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 75 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 76 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 93 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 91 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 95 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 208 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 212 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 228 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 19 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 20 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 206 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 188 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 428 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 194 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 226 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 317 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 324 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 331 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 355 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 362 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 363 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 365 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 370 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 376 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 380 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 381 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 385 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 387 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 388 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 393 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 396 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 398 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 400 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 414 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 892 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1131 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1023 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 1143 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1143 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1144 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1299 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1301 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1304 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1308 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.