WNBA · Jun 5 gameAll props Full sheet

Phoenix Mercury at Portland Fire

FinalPHO 78 – POR 72Page updated 11:37 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

No saved picks to grade.

Saved picks

0Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes · 2 availability alerts

May not play Thomas · left calf · PHO

Unlikely to play Copper · left hip · PHO

No playing-time estimates are available.

Picks for this game are not posted yet. The players below are up to date.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Availability to check

May not play Thomas · left calf · PHO

Unlikely to play Copper · left hip · PHO

Players and minutes8 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

Phoenix Mercury

Alyssa Thomas · minutes unknown

assists 7.5 → no final stat available

Jovana Nogic · minutes unknown

points 11.5 → 9 actual

Natasha Mack · minutes unknown

points 10.5 → 16 actual

Portland Fire

Bridget Carleton · minutes unknown

points 13.5 → 6 actual

Carla Leite · minutes unknown

assists 5.5 → 4 actual

Emily Engstler · minutes unknown

points 10.5 → 3 actual

Megan DiLeo · minutes unknown

points 11.5 → 7 actual

Sarah Ashlee Barker · minutes unknown

points 9.5 → 15 actual

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

POR expected to win by about 3.5 · both teams together expected to score about 159 points · odds to win: PHO 2.23, POR 1.61

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference) · observed Sat 02:15 UTC

What could go wrong

updated 11:37 UTC

Who is out

Whitcomb · earlier listed as likely to play, now available (changed Thu 00:00 UTC) · 19, 15 and 25 min in the last 3 games

May not play Thomas · left calf · PHO

Unlikely to play Copper · left hip · PHO

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates are available.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

PHO had 8 days off before this game · POR had 10 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 9 of the 154 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Whitcomb out (Thu 00:00 UTC) · played

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

In 4 of 6 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

8 other players with a posted line

Emily Engstler · points 10.5 → 3 · 7.5 below the line · played 16.5 min · FanDuel odds: Over 1.80, Under 1.96

Sarah Ashlee Barker · points 9.5 → 15 · 5.5 above the line · played 29.2 min · DraftKings odds: Over 1.74, Under 2.00

Bridget Carleton · points 13.5 → 6 · 7.5 below the line · played 27 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.83, Under 1.91

Natasha Mack · points 10.5 → 16 · 5.5 above the line · played 28.7 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.85, Under 1.88

Megan DiLeo · points 11.5 → 7 · 4.5 below the line · played 22.4 min · FanDuel odds: Over 1.94, Under 1.82

Carla Leite · assists 5.5 → 4 · 1.5 below the line · played 24.2 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.11, Under 1.68

Jovana Nogic · points 11.5 → 9 · 2.5 below the line · played 30.3 min · FanDuel odds: Over 1.85, Under 1.91

Alyssa Thomas · assists 7.5 → no final stat available · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.64, Under 2.18

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

POR vs PHO · last 3 games · PHO leads · POR record 1–2 · average score 83.7–85.7 · POR has lost by 2 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

17 Sep · PHO 94 at POR 91POR lost

16 Aug · POR 88 at PHO 85POR won

5 Jun · PHO 78 at POR 72POR lost

What each defense gives up per game

PHO gives up87.6 points · 34.0 rebounds · 21.5 assists · 9.7 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.4% of shots · 36.1% from three-point range · 12.9 opponent turnovers

POR gives up91.0 points · 34.0 rebounds · 22.9 assists · 9.3 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.4% of shots · 35.0% from three-point range · 13.6 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

PHO gives up 87.6 points a game · 8th of 15 · league average 87.2about league average

POR gives up 91.0 points a game · 13th of 15 · league average 87.2+3.8 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had POR expected to win by 3, expected total 161 (Fri 16:38 UTC) and later POR expected to win by 3.5, expected total 159 (Sat 02:15 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 43

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 25 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 26 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 27 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 31 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 32 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 32 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 31 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 32 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 33 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 38 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 103 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 105 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 113 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 116 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 7 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 8 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 110 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 31 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 39 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 37 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 128 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 131 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 134 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 141 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 145 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 148 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 151 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 153 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 156 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 159 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 168 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 170 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 174 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 304 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 2364 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 2445 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 2447 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 2488 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 2961 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 2959 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 2960 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 3089 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 3836 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.