WNBA · Finalupdated 11:24 UTC

New York Liberty vs Connecticut Sun

at Connecticut Sun

NYL expected to win by about 12 · both teams together expected to score about 163 points · odds to win: NYL 1.13, CON 5.49

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Mon 23:08 UTC

NYL 89 – CON 80

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: NYL = New York Liberty, CON = Connecticut Sun.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Picks for this game are not posted yet. The players below are up to date.

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

9 players checked · 7 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 2 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 11 players have performed clearly differently and 2 show a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

New York Libertyplaying CON

Breanna Stewart · minutes unknown

points 19.5 → 28 actual

Leonie Fiebich · minutes unknown

points 7.5 → 5 actual

Marine Johannes · minutes unknown

points 10.5 → 7 actual

Pauline Astier · minutes unknown

points 9.5 → 6 actual

Satou Sabally · minutes unknown

points 12.5 → 9 actual

Jonquel Jones · Out · ilness

points 13.5 → no final stat available

Connecticut Sunplaying NYL

Aaliyah Edwards · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 15 actual

Diamond Miller · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 10 actual

Leila Lacan · minutes unknown

points 12.5 → 7 actual

Saniya Rivers · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 12 actual

Brittney Griner · Out · left rib

points 12.5 → no final stat available

What could go wrong

updated 11:24 UTC

Who is out

Jackson · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Fri 21:00 UTC) · 26, 15 and 17 min in the last 3 games

Out Griner · earlier listed as may not play (changed Sun 16:30 UTC) · 19, 24 and 31 min in the last 3 games

Maley · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Fri 21:00 UTC) · 3, 5 and 8 min in the last 3 games

Jones · earlier listed as may not play, now available (changed Sun 17:15 UTC) · 32, 26 and 20 min in the last 3 games

Ionescu · earlier listed as may not play, now available (changed Fri 20:45 UTC) · 33, 28 and 23 min in the last 3 games

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

CON had 8 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 16 of the 153 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

One team is expected to win by 10 or more. In past games like this, players went over their lines 65.9% of the time; this does not mean the opposite is a good bet.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Jackson out (Fri 21:00 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Griner out (Sun 16:30 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Maley out (Fri 21:00 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Jones out (Sun 17:15 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Ionescu out (Fri 20:45 UTC) · played

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 3 of 7 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

11 other players with a posted line

Aaliyah Edwards · points 8.5 → 15 · 6.5 above the line · played 27.7 min · Caesars odds: Over 1.90, Under 1.82

Leila Lacan · points 12.5 → 7 · 5.5 below the line · played 25.5 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.00, Under 1.75

Breanna Stewart · points 19.5 → 28 · 8.5 above the line · played 34.5 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.87, Under 1.87

Saniya Rivers · points 8.5 → 12 · 3.5 above the line · played 29.1 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.86, Under 1.88

Pauline Astier · points 9.5 → 6 · 3.5 below the line · played 26 min · FanDuel odds: Over 1.98, Under 1.78

Leonie Fiebich · points 7.5 → 5 · 2.5 below the line · played 28.3 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.91, Under 1.83

Marine Johannes · points 10.5 → 7 · 3.5 below the line · played 24 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.91, Under 1.83

Satou Sabally · points 12.5 → 9 · 3.5 below the line · played 18.8 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.88, Under 1.85

Diamond Miller · points 8.5 → 10 · 1.5 above the line · played 23.1 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.70, Under 2.07

Jonquel Jones · points 13.5 → no final stat available · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.90, Under 1.84

Brittney Griner · points 12.5 → no final stat available · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.83, Under 1.92

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

CON vs NYL · last 22 games · NYL leads · CON record 5–17 · average score 76.1–80.5 · CON has lost by 4.3 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

15 Aug · NYL 82 at CON 75CON lost

8 Jun · NYL 89 at CON 80CON lost

8 May · CON 75 at NYL 106CON lost

What each defense gives up per game

NYL gives up86.0 points · 31.3 rebounds · 21.3 assists · 9.0 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.7% of shots · 34.4% from three-point range · 10.9 opponent turnovers

CON gives up87.7 points · 33.9 rebounds · 19.9 assists · 8.0 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.3% of shots · 34.9% from three-point range · 13.5 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

NYL gives up 86.0 points a game · 6th of 15 · league average 87.2about league average

CON gives up 87.7 points a game · 9th of 15 · league average 87.2about league average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had NYL expected to win by 12.5, expected total 161.5 (Mon 00:14 UTC) and later NYL expected to win by 12, expected total 163 (Mon 23:08 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 52

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 41 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 43 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 98 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 100 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 101 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 103 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 206 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 216 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 229 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 1 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 1 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 241 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 262 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 270 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 295 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 168 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 476 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 550 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 52 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 105 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 238 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 240 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 243 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 247 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 251 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 253 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 256 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 261 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 263 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 267 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 269 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 273 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 285 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 287 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 299 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 328 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 359 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 405 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 425 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 429 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1313 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 764 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 900 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 913 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 917 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 971 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 986 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 998 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1000 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1055 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1060 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.