WNBA · Finalupdated 12:29 UTC

Dallas Wings vs Minnesota Lynx

at Minnesota Lynx

MIN expected to win by about 7.5 · both teams together expected to score about 176.5 points · odds to win: DAL 3.33, MIN 1.34

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Wed 00:17 UTC

DAL 76 – MIN 100

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: DAL = Dallas Wings, MIN = Minnesota Lynx.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Picks for this game are not posted yet. The players below are up to date.

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

10 players checked · 6 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 10 players have performed clearly differently and 2 show a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Dallas Wingsplaying MIN

Arike Ogunbowale · minutes unknown

points 14.5 → 16 actual

Azzi Fudd · minutes unknown

points 13.5 → 6 actual

Jessica Shepard · minutes unknown

points 12.5 → 12 actual

Maddy Siegrist · minutes unknown

points 9.5 → 4 actual

Paige Bueckers · minutes unknown

points 17.5 → 23 actual

Minnesota Lynxplaying DAL

Courtney Williams · minutes unknown

points 16.5 → 16 actual

Kayla McBride · minutes unknown

points 13.5 → 22 actual

Natasha Howard · minutes unknown

points 15.5 → 21 actual

Nia Coffey · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 6 actual

Olivia Miles · minutes unknown

points 16.5 → 24 actual

What could go wrong

updated 12:29 UTC

Who is out

Out Carrington · earlier listed as available (changed Wed 00:15 UTC) · 4, 18 and 19 min in the last 3 games

Cechova · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sun 16:00 UTC) · 11, 22 and 19 min in the last 3 games

King · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sat 20:45 UTC) · 9, 20 and 1 min in the last 3 games

Collier · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sun 21:45 UTC) · 33, 33 and 25 min in the last 3 games

Kuier · earlier listed as available, now likely to play (changed Thu 23:45 UTC) · 29, 20 and 30 min in the last 3 games

Sims · earlier listed as may not play, now available (changed Sat 16:00 UTC) · 11, 15 and 10 min in the last 3 games

Out Joklova · MIN

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 18 of the 136 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Carrington out (Wed 00:15 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Joklova out · played

Flagged before the game: Cechova out (Sun 16:00 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: King out (Sat 20:45 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Collier out (Sun 21:45 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Kuier out (Thu 23:45 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Sims out (Sat 16:00 UTC) · played

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 5 of 6 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

10 other players with a posted line

Kayla McBride · points 13.5 → 22 · 8.5 above the line · played 30.1 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.97, Under 1.78

Maddy Siegrist · points 9.5 → 4 · 5.5 below the line · played 22 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.81, Under 1.93

Azzi Fudd · points 13.5 → 6 · 7.5 below the line · played 30 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.99, Under 1.77

Olivia Miles · points 16.5 → 24 · 7.5 above the line · played 31.1 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.98, Under 1.77

Natasha Howard · points 15.5 → 21 · 5.5 above the line · played 28.8 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.66, Under 2.15

Paige Bueckers · points 17.5 → 23 · 5.5 above the line · played 29.6 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.83, Under 1.91

Nia Coffey · points 8.5 → 6 · 2.5 below the line · played 25 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.88, Under 1.86

Arike Ogunbowale · points 14.5 → 16 · 1.5 above the line · played 28.4 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.85, Under 1.88

Jessica Shepard · points 12.5 → 12 · 0.5 below the line · played 29.2 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.05, Under 1.72

Courtney Williams · points 16.5 → 16 · 0.5 below the line · played 30.5 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.03, Under 1.74

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

MIN vs DAL · last 19 games · MIN leads · MIN record 13–6 · average score 88.1–83.7 · MIN has won by 4.4 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

9 Aug · DAL 90 at MIN 103MIN won

28 Jun · MIN 85 at DAL 77MIN won

9 Jun · DAL 76 at MIN 100MIN won

14 May · MIN 90 at DAL 86MIN won

What each defense gives up per game

DAL gives up86.0 points · 33.2 rebounds · 20.0 assists · 8.3 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.9% of shots · 33.9% from three-point range · 11.8 opponent turnovers

MIN gives up83.9 points · 33.4 rebounds · 20.5 assists · 9.3 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 43.7% of shots · 33.3% from three-point range · 14.5 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

DAL gives up 86.0 points a game · 5th of 15 · league average 87.2about league average

MIN gives up 83.9 points a game · 3rd of 15 · league average 87.2−3.3 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had MIN expected to win by 4, expected total 171.5 (Tue 02:40 UTC) and later MIN expected to win by 7.5, expected total 176.5 (Wed 00:17 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 49

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 34 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 36 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 37 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 39 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 41 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 48 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 50 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 70 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 70 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 70 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 71 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 141 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 143 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 6 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 8 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 178 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 178 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 75 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 80 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 82 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 85 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 94 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 96 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 100 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 101 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 152 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 157 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 162 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 166 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 180 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 195 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 316 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 345 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 376 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 380 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 396 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 665 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 551 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 2677 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 2712 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 2715 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 2718 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 2756 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 2865 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 3838 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 3840 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 4000 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 3963 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 4036 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.