WNBA · Finalupdated 12:28 UTC

Connecticut Sun vs Toronto Tempo

at Toronto Tempo

TOR expected to win by about 8.5 · both teams together expected to score about 166.5 points · odds to win: CON 3.96, TOR 1.27

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Wed 23:10 UTC

CON 102 – TOR 106

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: CON = Connecticut Sun, TOR = Toronto Tempo.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Picks for this game are not posted yet. The players below are up to date.

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

10 players checked · 8 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 1 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 10 players have performed clearly differently and 0 show a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Connecticut Sunplaying TOR

Aaliyah Edwards · minutes unknown

points 10.5 → 24 actual

Diamond Miller · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 11 actual

Leila Lacan · minutes unknown

points 11.5 → 24 actual

Olivia Nelson-Ododa · minutes unknown

points 9.5 → 9 actual

Saniya Rivers · minutes unknown

points 9.5 → 12 actual

Brittney Griner · Out · left rib

points 13.5 → no final stat available

Toronto Tempoplaying CON

Brittney Sykes · minutes unknown

points 19.5 → 38 actual

Julie Allemand · minutes unknown

assists 3.5 → 4 actual

Laura Juskaite · minutes unknown

points 7.5 → 19 actual

Marina Mabrey · minutes unknown

points 17.5 → 21 actual

Nyara Sabally · minutes unknown

points 10.5 → 15 actual

What could go wrong

updated 12:28 UTC

Who is out

Out Fagbenle · earlier listed as may not play (changed Tue 17:15 UTC) · 20, 26 and 22 min in the last 3 games

Out Morrow · earlier listed as available (changed Sat 23:45 UTC) · 7, 23 and 29 min in the last 3 games

Out Griner · earlier listed as may not play (changed Sun 16:30 UTC) · 19, 24 and 31 min in the last 3 games

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

CON had 8 days off before this game · TOR had 8 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 14 of the 122 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Fagbenle out (Tue 17:15 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Morrow out (Sat 23:45 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Griner out (Sun 16:30 UTC) · played

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 1 of 8 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

11 other players with a posted line

Laura Juskaite · points 7.5 → 19 · 11.5 above the line · played 36.7 min · FanDuel odds: Over 1.94, Under 1.82

Aaliyah Edwards · points 10.5 → 24 · 13.5 above the line · played 30.4 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.00, Under 1.76

Leila Lacan · points 11.5 → 24 · 12.5 above the line · played 31.7 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.84, Under 1.89

Brittney Sykes · points 19.5 → 38 · 18.5 above the line · played 41 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.79, Under 1.96

Nyara Sabally · points 10.5 → 15 · 4.5 above the line · played 29.6 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.98, Under 1.77

Diamond Miller · points 8.5 → 11 · 2.5 above the line · played 30.4 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.75, Under 2.00

Saniya Rivers · points 9.5 → 12 · 2.5 above the line · played 35.1 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.93, Under 1.81

Marina Mabrey · points 17.5 → 21 · 3.5 above the line · played 34.4 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.79, Under 1.96

Julie Allemand · assists 3.5 → 4 · 0.5 above the line · played 36.2 min · DraftKings odds: Over 1.95, Under 1.74

Olivia Nelson-Ododa · points 9.5 → 9 · 0.5 below the line · played 29.5 min · DraftKings odds: Over 2.00, Under 1.71

Brittney Griner · points 13.5 → no final stat available · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.85, Under 1.89

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

TOR vs CON · last 3 games · TOR leads · TOR record 2–1 · average score 96.0–98.0 · TOR has lost by 2 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

24 Sep · TOR 81 at CON 95TOR lost

19 Jun · TOR 101 at CON 97TOR won

10 Jun · CON 102 at TOR 106TOR won

What each defense gives up per game

CON gives up87.7 points · 33.9 rebounds · 19.9 assists · 8.0 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.3% of shots · 34.9% from three-point range · 13.5 opponent turnovers

TOR gives up94.4 points · 34.5 rebounds · 22.6 assists · 9.8 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 47.8% of shots · 35.4% from three-point range · 12.1 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

CON gives up 87.7 points a game · 9th of 15 · league average 87.2about league average

TOR gives up 94.4 points a game · 15th of 15 · league average 87.2+7.2 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had TOR expected to win by 7.5, expected total 170 (Wed 01:48 UTC) and later TOR expected to win by 8.5, expected total 166.5 (Wed 23:10 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 52

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 20 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 23 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 23 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 25 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 31 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 35 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 41 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 42 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 43 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 102 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 147 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 148 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 5 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 6 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 157 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 217 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 271 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 335 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 80 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 122 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 242 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 247 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 250 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 251 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 263 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 265 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 269 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 280 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 284 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 307 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 309 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 312 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 314 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 320 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 322 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 324 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 328 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 330 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 336 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 342 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 800 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1031 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1032 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 1034 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1034 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1099 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1101 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1103 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1104 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1131 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1133 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.