WNBA · Finalupdated 14:41 UTC

Chicago Sky vs Indiana Fever

at Indiana Fever

IND expected to win by about 9 · both teams together expected to score about 172 points · odds to win: CHI 4.47, IND 1.23

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Thu 23:04 UTC

CHI 106 – IND 114

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: CHI = Chicago Sky, IND = Indiana Fever.

Saved player research

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Picks for this game are not posted yet. The players below are up to date.

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

11 players checked · 4 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 1 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 1 of 12 players has performed clearly differently and 6 show a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Chicago Skyplaying IND

Azura Stevens · minutes unknown

points 10.5 → 10 actual

Gabriela Jaquez · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 6 actual

Kamilla Cardoso · minutes unknown

points 11.5 → 10 actual

Natasha Cloud · minutes unknown

points 9.5 → 6 actual

Skylar Diggins · minutes unknown

points 14.5 → 21 actual

Indiana Feverplaying CHI

Aliyah Boston · minutes unknown

points 14.5 → 34 actual

Caitlin Clark · minutes unknown

points 19.5 → 32 actual

Kelsey Mitchell · minutes unknown

points 18.5 → 19 actual

Lexie Hull · minutes unknown

points 5.5 → 11 actual

Monique Billings · minutes unknown

points 5.5 → 0 actual

Myisha Hines-Allen · minutes unknown

points 4.5 → 5 actual

Sophie Cunningham · Out · right elbow (elbow)

3-pointers 1.5 → no final stat available

Original forecast · corrected actuals

What did we expect, and what happened?

This reads the saved pre-tip model. Today’s rosters, injuries and model changes do not rewrite it.

Reading the immutable pre-tip record…

What could go wrong

updated 14:41 UTC

Who is out

Westbeld · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Mon 22:00 UTC) · 13, 14 and 9 min in the last 3 games

Out Vandersloot · right knee (knee) · CHI

Out Jackson · left knee (knee) · CHI

Out Cunningham · right elbow (elbow) · IND

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

CHI had 52 days off before this game · IND had 45 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 14 of the 107 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Cunningham out · played

Flagged before the game: Vandersloot out · played

Flagged before the game: Westbeld out (Mon 22:00 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Jackson out · played

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 3 of 4 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

12 other players with a posted line

Aliyah Boston · points 14.5 → 34 · 19.5 above the line · played 32.1 min · no final price

Lexie Hull · points 5.5 → 11 · 5.5 above the line · played 32.3 min · no final price

Monique Billings · points 5.5 → 0 · 5.5 below the line · played 9.6 min · no final price

Caitlin Clark · points 19.5 → 32 · 12.5 above the line · played 40.1 min · no final price

Skylar Diggins · points 14.5 → 21 · 6.5 above the line · played 31.7 min · no final price

Natasha Cloud · points 9.5 → 6 · 3.5 below the line · played 33.7 min · no final price

Gabriela Jaquez · points 8.5 → 6 · 2.5 below the line · played 21.6 min · no final price

Kamilla Cardoso · points 11.5 → 10 · 1.5 below the line · played 20.8 min · no final price

Myisha Hines-Allen · points 4.5 → 5 · 0.5 above the line · played 23.5 min · no final price

Azura Stevens · points 10.5 → 10 · 0.5 below the line · played 26.2 min · no final price

Kelsey Mitchell · points 18.5 → 19 · 0.5 above the line · played 38.9 min · no final price

Sophie Cunningham · 3-pointers 1.5 → no final stat available · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

IND vs CHI · last 19 games · IND leads · IND record 13–6 · average score 91.3–84.1 · IND has won by 7.2 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

23 Aug · IND 113 at CHI 90IND won

8 Aug · IND 90 at CHI 86IND won

11 Jun · CHI 106 at IND 114IND won

What each defense gives up per game

CHI gives up90.7 points · 37.1 rebounds · 20.7 assists · 8.2 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.9% of shots · 33.8% from three-point range · 12.9 opponent turnovers

IND gives up90.7 points · 31.9 rebounds · 20.8 assists · 8.1 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.2% of shots · 34.0% from three-point range · 12.6 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

CHI gives up 90.7 points a game · 11th of 15 · league average 87.0+3.6 vs average

IND gives up 90.7 points a game · 12th of 15 · league average 87.0+3.7 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had IND expected to win by 9.5, expected total 171 (Thu 01:12 UTC) and later IND expected to win by 9, expected total 172 (Thu 23:04 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 55

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 8 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 14 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 14 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 16 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 27 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 29 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 32 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 33 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 33 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 34 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 35 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 35 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 35 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 16 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 51 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 45 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 47 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 58 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 129 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 139 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 140 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 139 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 140 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 139 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 144 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 152 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 151 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 186 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 185 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 186 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 238 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 248 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 248 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 251 ms

odds player timeline (threes)failed 503 · 252 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 255 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 257 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 259 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 259 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 266 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 267 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 269 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 270 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 273 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 286 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 289 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 294 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 304 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 312 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 354 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 978 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.