WNBA · Jun 11 gameAll props Full sheet

Las Vegas Aces at Portland Fire

FinalLVA 105 – POR 89Page updated 14:28 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

No saved picks to grade.

Saved picks

0Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes · 2 availability alerts

May not play Leite · left quad · POR

May not play Carter · left leg · LVA

No playing-time estimates are available.

Picks for this game are not posted yet. The players below are up to date.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Availability to check

May not play Leite · left quad · POR

May not play Carter · left leg · LVA

Players and minutes10 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

Las Vegas Aces

A'ja Wilson · minutes unknown

points 26.5 → 32 actual

Chelsea Gray · minutes unknown

points 11.5 → 29 actual

Jackie Young · minutes unknown

points 17.5 → 18 actual

Jewell Loyd · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 2 actual

NaLyssa Smith · minutes unknown

points 10.5 → 12 actual

Portland Fire

Bridget Carleton · minutes unknown

points 13.5 → 13 actual

Carla Leite · minutes unknown

points 13.5 → 18 actual

Emily Engstler · minutes unknown

points 10.5 → 7 actual

Megan DiLeo · minutes unknown

points 11.5 → 17 actual

Sarah Ashlee Barker · minutes unknown

points 9.5 → 14 actual

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

LVA expected to win by about 11 · both teams together expected to score about 170.5 points · odds to win: LVA 1.18, POR 5.32

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference) · observed Fri 02:06 UTC

What could go wrong

updated 14:28 UTC

Who is out

Evans · earlier listed as likely to play, now available (changed Thu 01:00 UTC) · 27, 18 and 15 min in the last 3 games

May not play Leite · left quad · POR

May not play Carter · left leg · LVA

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates are available.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

LVA had 37 days off before this game · POR had 54 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 14 of the 133 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

One team is expected to win by 10 or more. In past games like this, players went over their lines 65.9% of the time; this does not mean the opposite is a good bet.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Evans out (Thu 01:00 UTC) · played

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

In 2 of 7 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

10 other players with a posted line

Chelsea Gray · points 11.5 → 29 · 17.5 above the line · played 37.3 min · no final price

Jewell Loyd · points 8.5 → 2 · 6.5 below the line · played 24.5 min · no final price

Megan DiLeo · points 11.5 → 17 · 5.5 above the line · played 27.8 min · no final price

Sarah Ashlee Barker · points 9.5 → 14 · 4.5 above the line · played 29.5 min · no final price

Carla Leite · points 13.5 → 18 · 4.5 above the line · played 28.5 min · no final price

Emily Engstler · points 10.5 → 7 · 3.5 below the line · played 23.6 min · no final price

A'ja Wilson · points 26.5 → 32 · 5.5 above the line · played 35.7 min · no final price

NaLyssa Smith · points 10.5 → 12 · 1.5 above the line · played 25.5 min · no final price

Bridget Carleton · points 13.5 → 13 · 0.5 below the line · played 32.9 min · no final price

Jackie Young · points 17.5 → 18 · 0.5 above the line · played 34.7 min · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

POR vs LVA · last 3 games · LVA leads · POR record 0–3 · average score 84.0–97.0 · POR has lost by 13 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

28 Jul · POR 83 at LVA 98POR lost

9 Jul · LVA 88 at POR 80POR lost

11 Jun · LVA 105 at POR 89POR lost

What each defense gives up per game

LVA gives up85.8 points · 34.0 rebounds · 18.6 assists · 8.8 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.2% of shots · 34.5% from three-point range · 13.0 opponent turnovers

POR gives up91.0 points · 34.0 rebounds · 22.9 assists · 9.3 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.4% of shots · 35.0% from three-point range · 13.6 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

LVA gives up 85.8 points a game · 6th of 15 · league average 87.0about league average

POR gives up 91.0 points a game · 13th of 15 · league average 87.0+4.0 vs average

How the game odds moved

No history of the game odds on file.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 49

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 26 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 28 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 34 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 44 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 50 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 50 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 63 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 72 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 75 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 84 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 121 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 113 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 185 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 188 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 193 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 10 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 10 ms

odds game timelinefailed 503 · 242 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 340 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 140 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 159 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 194 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 196 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 200 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 205 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 207 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 208 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 217 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 219 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 226 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 227 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 239 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 242 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 243 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 254 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 256 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 258 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 260 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 268 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 274 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 281 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 284 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 287 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 292 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 293 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 304 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 311 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 327 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.