WNBA · Finalupdated 14:14 UTC

New York Liberty vs Atlanta Dream

at Atlanta Dream

ATL expected to win by about 3.5 · both teams together expected to score about 165 points · odds to win: NYL 2.33, ATL 1.64

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Thu 23:35 UTC

NYL 104 – ATL 90

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: NYL = New York Liberty, ATL = Atlanta Dream.

Saved player research

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Picks for this game are not posted yet. The players below are up to date.

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

11 players checked · 8 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 1 of 11 players has performed clearly differently and 1 shows a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

New York Libertyplaying ATL

Breanna Stewart · minutes unknown

points 19.5 → 19 actual

Jonquel Jones · minutes unknown

points 13.5 → 16 actual

Leonie Fiebich · minutes unknown

rebounds 3.5 → 3 actual

Marine Johannes · minutes unknown

points 10.5 → 17 actual

Pauline Astier · minutes unknown

points 9.5 → 16 actual

Satou Sabally · minutes unknown

points 11.5 → 19 actual

Atlanta Dreamplaying NYL

Allisha Gray · minutes unknown

points 17.5 → 18 actual

Angel Reese · minutes unknown

points 13.5 → 25 actual

Jordin Canada · minutes unknown

points 11.5 → 3 actual

Naz Hillmon · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 7 actual

Rhyne Howard · minutes unknown

points 16.5 → 24 actual

Original forecast · corrected actuals

What did we expect, and what happened?

This reads the saved pre-tip model. Today’s rosters, injuries and model changes do not rewrite it.

Reading the immutable pre-tip record…

What could go wrong

updated 14:14 UTC

Who is out

Out B. Jones (ATL) · earlier listed as available (changed Sat 21:00 UTC) · 5, 20 and 22 min in the last 3 games

Maley · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Fri 21:00 UTC) · 3, 5 and 8 min in the last 3 games

Ionescu · earlier listed as may not play, now available (changed Fri 20:45 UTC) · 36, 38 and 34 min in the last 3 games

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

NYL had 37 days off before this game · ATL had 15 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 14 of the 153 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: B. Jones (ATL) out (Sat 21:00 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Maley out (Fri 21:00 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Ionescu out (Fri 20:45 UTC) · played

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 4 of 8 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

11 other players with a posted line

Angel Reese · points 13.5 → 25 · 11.5 above the line · played 33.3 min · no final price

Jordin Canada · points 11.5 → 3 · 8.5 below the line · played 29.1 min · no final price

Pauline Astier · points 9.5 → 16 · 6.5 above the line · played 26.2 min · no final price

Satou Sabally · points 11.5 → 19 · 7.5 above the line · played 17.3 min · no final price

Marine Johannes · points 10.5 → 17 · 6.5 above the line · played 22.3 min · no final price

Rhyne Howard · points 16.5 → 24 · 7.5 above the line · played 36 min · no final price

Jonquel Jones · points 13.5 → 16 · 2.5 above the line · played 26 min · no final price

Naz Hillmon · points 8.5 → 7 · 1.5 below the line · played 29.7 min · no final price

Leonie Fiebich · rebounds 3.5 → 3 · 0.5 below the line · played 26.6 min · no final price

Allisha Gray · points 17.5 → 18 · 0.5 above the line · played 30.9 min · no final price

Breanna Stewart · points 19.5 → 19 · 0.5 below the line · played 34.8 min · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

ATL vs NYL · last 24 games · NYL leads · ATL record 10–14 · average score 81.8–85.3 · ATL has lost by 3.5 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

9 Oct · ATL 85 at NYL 83ATL won

7 Oct · NYL 98 at ATL 101ATL won

4 Oct · NYL 82 at ATL 92ATL won

23 Sep · ATL 83 at NYL 65ATL won

21 Sep · ATL 95 at NYL 84ATL won

11 Jun · NYL 104 at ATL 90ATL lost

What each defense gives up per game

NYL gives up86.5 points · 31.4 rebounds · 21.3 assists · 9.0 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.6% of shots · 34.6% from three-point range · 10.8 opponent turnovers

ATL gives up82.7 points · 32.1 rebounds · 18.4 assists · 8.1 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 45.5% of shots · 34.1% from three-point range · 15.2 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

NYL gives up 86.5 points a game · 7th of 15 · league average 87.0about league average

ATL gives up 82.7 points a game · 2nd of 15 · league average 87.0−4.3 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had ATL expected to win by 3.5, expected total 164 (Thu 03:43 UTC) and later ATL expected to win by 3.5, expected total 165 (Thu 23:35 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 52

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 9 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 39 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 42 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 44 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 45 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 73 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 73 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 74 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 75 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 76 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 70 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 88 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 89 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 89 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 51 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 95 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 58 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 206 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 241 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 281 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 282 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 274 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 334 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 324 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 334 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 339 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 338 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 343 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 344 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 385 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 386 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 377 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 387 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 381 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 384 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 387 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 391 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 390 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 393 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 397 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 411 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 414 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 405 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 417 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 408 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 411 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 450 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 451 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 464 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 948 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.