WNBA · Finalupdated 11:33 UTC

Dallas Wings vs Portland Fire

at Portland Fire

DAL expected to win by about 3.5 · both teams together expected to score about 167 points · odds to win: DAL 1.61, POR 2.40

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Sun 00:39 UTC

DAL 83 – POR 84

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: DAL = Dallas Wings, POR = Portland Fire.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Picks for this game are not posted yet. The players below are up to date.

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

11 players checked · 9 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 1 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 12 players have performed clearly differently and 2 show a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Dallas Wingsplaying POR

Alanna Smith · minutes unknown

points 4.5 → 4 actual

Arike Ogunbowale · minutes unknown

points 15.5 → 22 actual

Aziaha James · minutes unknown

points 11.5 → 17 actual

Azzi Fudd · minutes unknown

points 13.5 → 18 actual

Jessica Shepard · minutes unknown

points 12.5 → 13 actual

Maddy Siegrist · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 5 actual

Paige Bueckers · Out · right ankle

points 18.5 → no final stat available

Portland Fireplaying DAL

Bridget Carleton · minutes unknown

points 12.5 → 20 actual

Carla Leite · minutes unknown

points 14.5 → 10 actual

Emily Engstler · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 11 actual

Megan DiLeo · minutes unknown

points 11.5 → 16 actual

Sarah Ashlee Barker · minutes unknown

points 10.5 → 10 actual

What could go wrong

updated 11:33 UTC

Who is out

Out Puoch · earlier listed as available (changed Wed 01:00 UTC) · 26, 31 and 29 min in the last 3 games

Sims · earlier listed as may not play, now available (changed Sat 16:00 UTC) · 11, 15 and 10 min in the last 3 games

Bueckers · earlier listed as may not play, now available (changed Thu 10:40 UTC) · 43, 25 and 30 min in the last 3 games

Leite · likely to play · left quad (quad) · POR

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

POR had 10 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 11 of the 144 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Puoch out (Wed 01:00 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Sims out (Sat 16:00 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Bueckers out (Thu 10:40 UTC) · played

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 3 of 9 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

12 other players with a posted line

Bridget Carleton · points 12.5 → 20 · 7.5 above the line · played 31.5 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.87, Under 1.87

Aziaha James · points 11.5 → 17 · 5.5 above the line · played 33.9 min · DraftKings odds: Over 1.83, Under 1.87

Arike Ogunbowale · points 15.5 → 22 · 6.5 above the line · played 35.1 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.76, Under 1.99

Maddy Siegrist · points 8.5 → 5 · 3.5 below the line · played 13.5 min · Caesars odds: Over 2.05, Under 1.72

Megan DiLeo · points 11.5 → 16 · 4.5 above the line · played 26 min · Caesars odds: Over 1.79, Under 1.95

Azzi Fudd · points 13.5 → 18 · 4.5 above the line · played 31.7 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.95, Under 1.79

Carla Leite · points 14.5 → 10 · 4.5 below the line · played 27.3 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.09, Under 1.69

Emily Engstler · points 8.5 → 11 · 2.5 above the line · played 24.1 min · Caesars odds: Over 1.83, Under 1.91

Alanna Smith · points 4.5 → 4 · 0.5 below the line · played 11.1 min · Caesars odds: Over 1.85, Under 1.88

Sarah Ashlee Barker · points 10.5 → 10 · 0.5 below the line · played 31.8 min · BetRivers odds: Over 2.00, Under —

Jessica Shepard · points 12.5 → 13 · 0.5 above the line · played 35.2 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.81, Under 1.93

Paige Bueckers · points 18.5 → no final stat available · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.87, Under 1.87

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

POR vs DAL · last 3 games · DAL leads · POR record 1–2 · average score 86.3–93.3 · POR has lost by 7 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

25 Aug · POR 78 at DAL 96POR lost

22 Jul · DAL 101 at POR 97POR lost

13 Jun · DAL 83 at POR 84POR won

What each defense gives up per game

DAL gives up86.0 points · 33.2 rebounds · 20.0 assists · 8.3 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.9% of shots · 33.9% from three-point range · 11.8 opponent turnovers

POR gives up91.0 points · 34.0 rebounds · 22.9 assists · 9.3 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.4% of shots · 35.0% from three-point range · 13.6 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

DAL gives up 86.0 points a game · 5th of 15 · league average 87.2about league average

POR gives up 91.0 points a game · 13th of 15 · league average 87.2+3.8 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had DAL expected to win by 6, expected total 170 (Sat 03:16 UTC) and later DAL expected to win by 3.5, expected total 167 (Sun 00:39 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 55

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 17 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 19 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 23 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 23 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 27 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 28 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 30 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 32 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 33 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 101 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 104 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 5 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 7 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 126 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 129 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 124 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 394 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 466 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 59 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 62 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 70 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 147 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 151 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 156 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 158 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 161 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 162 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 163 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 164 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 167 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 183 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 200 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 203 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 209 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 216 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 219 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 221 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 227 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 729 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 261 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 268 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 271 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 347 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 625 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 623 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 624 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 626 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 628 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 818 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 816 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 847 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 853 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 934 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 987 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.