WNBA · Finalupdated 13:59 UTC

Washington Mystics vs New York Liberty

at New York Liberty

NYL expected to win by about 13 · both teams together expected to score about 165.5 points · odds to win: WAS 5.89, NYL 1.11

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Sun 19:13 UTC

WAS 64 – NYL 86

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: WAS = Washington Mystics, NYL = New York Liberty.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Picks for this game are not posted yet. The players below are up to date.

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

11 players checked · 6 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 3 of 11 players have performed clearly differently and 0 show a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Washington Mysticsplaying NYL

Lauren Betts · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 4 actual

Michaela Onyenwere · minutes unknown

points 9.5 → 17 actual

Shakira Austin · minutes unknown

points 15.5 → 8 actual

Sonia Citron · minutes unknown

points 16.5 → 12 actual

New York Libertyplaying WAS

Breanna Stewart · minutes unknown

points 19.5 → 14 actual

Jonquel Jones · minutes unknown

points 13.5 → 20 actual

Leonie Fiebich · minutes unknown

points 6.5 → 8 actual

Marine Johannes · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 2 actual

Pauline Astier · minutes unknown

points 9.5 → 6 actual

Sabrina Ionescu · minutes unknown

points 13.5 → 5 actual

Satou Sabally · minutes unknown

points 11.5 → 7 actual

What could go wrong

updated 13:59 UTC

Who is out

Fauthoux · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Mon 04:40 UTC) · 3, 17 and 8 min in the last 3 games

Out Iriafen · right ankle (ankle) · WAS

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 10 of the 133 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

One team is expected to win by 10 or more. In past games like this, players went over their lines 65.9% of the time; this does not mean the opposite is a good bet.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Fauthoux out (Mon 04:40 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Iriafen out · played

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 2 of 6 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

11 other players with a posted line

Michaela Onyenwere · points 9.5 → 17 · 7.5 above the line · played 20.9 min · BetRivers odds: Over 1.70, Under —

Sabrina Ionescu · points 13.5 → 5 · 8.5 below the line · played 25.5 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.17, Under 1.64

Lauren Betts · points 8.5 → 4 · 4.5 below the line · played 24.4 min · DraftKings odds: Over 1.95, Under 1.77

Shakira Austin · points 15.5 → 8 · 7.5 below the line · played 30 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.86, Under 1.88

Jonquel Jones · points 13.5 → 20 · 6.5 above the line · played 26.5 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.07, Under 1.70

Satou Sabally · points 11.5 → 7 · 4.5 below the line · played 19.2 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.92, Under 1.83

Pauline Astier · points 9.5 → 6 · 3.5 below the line · played 20 min · Caesars odds: Over 2.14, Under 1.66

Marine Johannes · 3-pointers 1.5 → 2 · 0.5 above the line · played 16.8 min · Caesars odds: Over 1.72, Under 2.00

Breanna Stewart · points 19.5 → 14 · 5.5 below the line · played 29.9 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.95, Under 1.79

Sonia Citron · points 16.5 → 12 · 4.5 below the line · played 30.6 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.12, Under 1.68

Leonie Fiebich · points 6.5 → 8 · 1.5 above the line · played 24.1 min · Caesars odds: Over 1.87, Under 1.87

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

NYL vs WAS · last 20 games · NYL leads · NYL record 16–4 · average score 84.7–77.5 · NYL has won by 7.3 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

19 Jun · WAS 86 at NYL 83NYL lost

14 Jun · WAS 64 at NYL 86NYL won

What each defense gives up per game

WAS gives up83.2 points · 30.0 rebounds · 19.8 assists · 8.4 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 43.1% of shots · 32.9% from three-point range · 11.9 opponent turnovers

NYL gives up86.0 points · 31.3 rebounds · 21.3 assists · 9.0 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.7% of shots · 34.4% from three-point range · 10.9 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

WAS gives up 83.2 points a game · 2nd of 15 · league average 87.2−4.0 vs average

NYL gives up 86.0 points a game · 6th of 15 · league average 87.2about league average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had NYL expected to win by 12, expected total 168 (Sun 01:10 UTC) and later NYL expected to win by 13, expected total 165.5 (Sun 19:13 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 52

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 25 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 28 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 33 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 36 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 38 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 40 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 42 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 116 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 120 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 128 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 138 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 143 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 18 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 20 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 149 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 92 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 375 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 381 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 57 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 72 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 137 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 193 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 214 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 219 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 223 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 240 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 245 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 250 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 255 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 259 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 263 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 269 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 268 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 283 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 286 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 299 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 381 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 400 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 435 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 440 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1496 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1260 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 1267 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1353 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1407 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1412 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1456 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1504 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1514 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1522 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1545 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1585 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.