WNBA · Finalupdated 16:23 UTC

Las Vegas Aces vs Phoenix Mercury

at Phoenix Mercury

LVA expected to win by about 6.5 · both teams together expected to score about 172 points · odds to win: LVA 1.39, PHO 3.12

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Thu 02:13 UTC

LVA 86 – PHO 76

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: LVA = Las Vegas Aces, PHO = Phoenix Mercury.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Picks for this game are not posted yet. The players below are up to date.

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

11 players checked · 7 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 1 of 11 players has performed clearly differently and 1 shows a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Las Vegas Acesplaying PHO

A'ja Wilson · minutes unknown

points 25.5 → 33 actual

Chelsea Gray · minutes unknown

points 11.5 → 5 actual

Jackie Young · minutes unknown

points 17.5 → 20 actual

Jewell Loyd · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 0 actual

NaLyssa Smith · minutes unknown

points 9.5 → 21 actual

Stephanie Talbot · minutes unknown

rebounds 3.5 → 2 actual

Phoenix Mercuryplaying LVA

Alyssa Thomas · minutes unknown

points 15.5 → 10 actual

Kahleah Copper · minutes unknown

points 18.5 → 26 actual

Lexi Held · minutes unknown

points 6.5 → 7 actual

Natasha Mack · minutes unknown

points 9.5 → 0 actual

Noemie Brochant · minutes unknown

points 6.5 → 4 actual

What could go wrong

updated 16:23 UTC

Who is out

Whitcomb · earlier listed as likely to play, now available (changed Thu 00:00 UTC) · 19, 15 and 25 min in the last 3 games

Out Evans · earlier listed as available (changed Thu 19:30 UTC) · 15, 4 and 14 min in the last 3 games

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

LVA also played the day before this game · PHO had 8 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 18 of the 144 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Whitcomb out (Thu 00:00 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Evans out (Thu 19:30 UTC) · played

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 3 of 7 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

11 other players with a posted line

NaLyssa Smith · points 9.5 → 21 · 11.5 above the line · played 30.7 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.69, Under 2.09

Jewell Loyd · points 8.5 → 0 · 8.5 below the line · played 24.3 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.88, Under 1.86

Natasha Mack · points 9.5 → 0 · 9.5 below the line · played 22.5 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.09, Under 1.69

Chelsea Gray · points 11.5 → 5 · 6.5 below the line · played 34.6 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.76, Under 1.99

Stephanie Talbot · rebounds 3.5 → 2 · 1.5 below the line · played 19.6 min · DraftKings odds: Over 2.00, Under 1.74

Kahleah Copper · points 18.5 → 26 · 7.5 above the line · played 30.2 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.88, Under 1.85

Noemie Brochant · points 6.5 → 4 · 2.5 below the line · played 18.8 min · Caesars odds: Over 1.83, Under 1.89

Alyssa Thomas · points 15.5 → 10 · 5.5 below the line · played 35.3 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.98, Under 1.77

A'ja Wilson · points 25.5 → 33 · 7.5 above the line · played 37.1 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.72, Under 2.04

Jackie Young · points 17.5 → 20 · 2.5 above the line · played 37.9 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.79, Under 1.95

Lexi Held · points 6.5 → 7 · 0.5 above the line · played 15 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.81, Under 1.94

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

PHO vs LVA · last 25 games · LVA leads · PHO record 3–22 · average score 80.2–92.2 · PHO has lost by 12 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

24 Sep · LVA 100 at PHO 82PHO lost

11 Jul · PHO 58 at LVA 106PHO lost

17 Jun · LVA 86 at PHO 76PHO lost

9 May · PHO 99 at LVA 66PHO won

10 Oct · LVA 97 at PHO 86PHO lost

8 Oct · LVA 90 at PHO 88PHO lost

5 Oct · PHO 78 at LVA 91PHO lost

3 Oct · PHO 86 at LVA 89PHO lost

What each defense gives up per game

LVA gives up86.2 points · 33.5 rebounds · 18.9 assists · 8.8 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.5% of shots · 34.7% from three-point range · 13.1 opponent turnovers

PHO gives up87.6 points · 34.0 rebounds · 21.5 assists · 9.7 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.4% of shots · 36.1% from three-point range · 12.9 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

LVA gives up 86.2 points a game · 7th of 15 · league average 87.2about league average

PHO gives up 87.6 points a game · 8th of 15 · league average 87.2about league average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had LVA expected to win by 7, expected total 172.5 (Wed 02:18 UTC) and later LVA expected to win by 6.5, expected total 172 (Thu 02:13 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 52

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 17 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 17 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 19 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 21 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 22 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 22 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 24 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 96 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 100 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 6 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 7 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 107 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 114 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 154 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 156 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 92 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 528 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 759 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 815 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 48 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 79 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 164 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 168 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 174 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 176 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 178 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 185 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 187 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 191 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 196 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 202 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 210 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 231 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 233 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 241 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 248 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 254 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 255 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 263 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 266 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 312 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 493 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 560 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 563 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 565 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 570 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 588 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 635 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 837 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 866 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 878 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.