WNBA · Finalupdated 15:34 UTC

New York Liberty vs Chicago Sky

at Chicago Sky

NYL expected to win by about 10 · both teams together expected to score about 169.5 points · odds to win: NYL 1.21, CHI 4.76

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Wed 23:59 UTC

NYL 96 – CHI 95

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: NYL = New York Liberty, CHI = Chicago Sky.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Picks for this game are not posted yet. The players below are up to date.

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

12 players checked · 6 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games · 3 not checked

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 1 of 12 players has performed clearly differently and 3 show a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

New York Libertyplaying CHI

Breanna Stewart · minutes unknown

points 19.5 → 17 actual

Jonquel Jones · minutes unknown

points 13.5 → 19 actual

Leonie Fiebich · minutes unknown

points 6.5 → 9 actual

Marine Johannes · minutes unknown

points 7.5 → 3 actual

Pauline Astier · minutes unknown

assists 3.5 → 4 actual

Sabrina Ionescu · minutes unknown

points 14.5 → 10 actual

Satou Sabally · minutes unknown

points 10.5 → 17 actual

Chicago Skyplaying NYL

Azura Stevens · minutes unknown

points 11.5 → 6 actual

Elizabeth Williams · minutes unknown

points 7.5 → 3 actual

Gabriela Jaquez · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 22 actual

Jacy Sheldon · minutes unknown

points 7.5 → 0 actual

Kamilla Cardoso · minutes unknown

points 12.5 → 10 actual

Natasha Cloud · minutes unknown

points 9.5 → 11 actual

Skylar Diggins · minutes unknown

points 14.5 → 19 actual

Sydney Taylor · minutes unknown

points 10.5 → 24 actual

What could go wrong

updated 15:34 UTC

Who is out

Westbeld · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Mon 22:00 UTC) · 13, 14 and 9 min in the last 3 games

Maley · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Fri 21:00 UTC) · 3, 5 and 8 min in the last 3 games

Fauthoux · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Mon 04:40 UTC) · 3, 17 and 8 min in the last 3 games

Out Vandersloot · right knee (knee) · CHI

Out Jackson · left knee (knee) · CHI

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

CHI had 8 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 15 of the 141 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

One team is expected to win by 10 or more. In past games like this, players went over their lines 65.9% of the time; this does not mean the opposite is a good bet.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Vandersloot out · played

Flagged before the game: Westbeld out (Mon 22:00 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Jackson out · played

Flagged before the game: Maley out (Fri 21:00 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Fauthoux out (Mon 04:40 UTC) · played

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 4 of 6 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

15 other players with a posted line

Gabriela Jaquez · points 8.5 → 22 · 13.5 above the line · played 28.9 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.99, Under 1.76

Sydney Taylor · points 10.5 → 24 · 13.5 above the line · played 28.3 min · DraftKings odds: Over 1.93, Under 1.81

Jacy Sheldon · points 7.5 → 0 · 7.5 below the line · played 10.4 min · BetRivers odds: Over 2.05, Under —

Satou Sabally · points 10.5 → 17 · 6.5 above the line · played 19 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.73, Under 2.03

Marine Johannes · points 7.5 → 3 · 4.5 below the line · played 16.6 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.80, Under 1.94

Elizabeth Williams · points 7.5 → 3 · 4.5 below the line · played 15.9 min · no final price

Azura Stevens · points 11.5 → 6 · 5.5 below the line · played 19.5 min · FanDuel odds: Over 1.94, Under 1.82

Jonquel Jones · points 13.5 → 19 · 5.5 above the line · played 28.1 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.83, Under 1.91

Leonie Fiebich · points 6.5 → 9 · 2.5 above the line · played 23.7 min · Caesars odds: Over 1.80, Under 1.94

Sabrina Ionescu · points 14.5 → 10 · 4.5 below the line · played 27.7 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.08, Under 1.70

Skylar Diggins · points 14.5 → 19 · 4.5 above the line · played 31.3 min · no final price

Kamilla Cardoso · points 12.5 → 10 · 2.5 below the line · played 23.9 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.88, Under 1.85

Natasha Cloud · points 9.5 → 11 · 1.5 above the line · played 27.6 min · no final price

Pauline Astier · assists 3.5 → 4 · 0.5 above the line · played 23.2 min · Caesars odds: Over 2.34, Under 1.56

Breanna Stewart · points 19.5 → 17 · 2.5 below the line · played 35.4 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.81, Under 1.93

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

CHI vs NYL · last 23 games · NYL leads · CHI record 9–14 · average score 82.5–83.9 · CHI has lost by 1.3 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

29 Aug · CHI 66 at NYL 85CHI lost

18 Aug · NYL 86 at CHI 93CHI won

22 Jul · CHI 94 at NYL 95CHI lost

17 Jun · NYL 96 at CHI 95CHI lost

11 Sep · NYL 91 at CHI 86CHI lost

What each defense gives up per game

NYL gives up86.0 points · 31.3 rebounds · 21.3 assists · 9.0 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.7% of shots · 34.4% from three-point range · 10.9 opponent turnovers

CHI gives up90.7 points · 37.1 rebounds · 20.7 assists · 8.2 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.9% of shots · 33.8% from three-point range · 12.9 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

NYL gives up 86.0 points a game · 6th of 15 · league average 87.2about league average

CHI gives up 90.7 points a game · 11th of 15 · league average 87.2+3.5 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had NYL expected to win by 9.5, expected total 169.5 (Wed 01:45 UTC) and later NYL expected to win by 10, expected total 169.5 (Wed 23:59 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 55

sds history (h2h)ok · 27 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 28 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 32 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 34 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 36 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 50 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 51 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 64 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 108 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 140 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 119 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 195 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 203 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 206 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 15 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 16 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 499 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1050 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 5466 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 79 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 150 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 184 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 299 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 305 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 308 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 312 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 316 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 320 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 324 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 326 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 330 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 333 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 334 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 354 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 357 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 360 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 362 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 365 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 369 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 385 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 392 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 404 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 424 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 688 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 691 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 862 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 865 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 931 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 928 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 976 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 977 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 980 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1039 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1448 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.