WNBA · Finalupdated 19:06 UTC

Seattle Storm vs Portland Fire

at Portland Fire

POR expected to win by about 6 · both teams together expected to score about 164 points · odds to win: SEA 2.82, POR 1.40

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Thu 02:13 UTC

SEA 89 – POR 94

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: SEA = Seattle Storm, POR = Portland Fire.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Picks for this game are not posted yet. The players below are up to date.

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

10 players checked · 8 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 1 of 10 players has performed clearly differently and 1 shows a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Seattle Stormplaying POR

Awa Fam · minutes unknown

points 9.5 → 18 actual

Dominique Malonga · minutes unknown

points 14.5 → 28 actual

Flau'jae Johnson · minutes unknown

points 10.5 → 8 actual

Jade Melbourne · minutes unknown

points 7.5 → 6 actual

Natisha Hiedeman · minutes unknown

points 13.5 → 19 actual

Portland Fireplaying SEA

Bridget Carleton · minutes unknown

points 12.5 → 24 actual

Carla Leite · minutes unknown

points 12.5 → 20 actual

Emily Engstler · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 9 actual

Megan DiLeo · minutes unknown

points 12.5 → 8 actual

Sarah Ashlee Barker · minutes unknown

points 10.5 → 12 actual

What could go wrong

updated 19:06 UTC

Who is out

Horston · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sun 18:15 UTC) · 21, 19 and 13 min in the last 3 games

May not play Winterburn · right foot · POR

May not play Samuelson · left groin muscle · POR

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

SEA had 9 days off before this game · POR had 10 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 12 of the 156 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Horston out (Sun 18:15 UTC) · played

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 2 of 8 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

10 other players with a posted line

Dominique Malonga · points 14.5 → 28 · 13.5 above the line · played 34.6 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.76, Under 2.00

Bridget Carleton · points 12.5 → 24 · 11.5 above the line · played 28.7 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.91, Under 1.83

Awa Fam · points 9.5 → 18 · 8.5 above the line · played 29.5 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.84, Under 1.90

Carla Leite · points 12.5 → 20 · 7.5 above the line · played 29 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.76, Under 1.99

Natisha Hiedeman · points 13.5 → 19 · 5.5 above the line · played 32.7 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.86, Under 1.88

Megan DiLeo · points 12.5 → 8 · 4.5 below the line · played 27.7 min · BetRivers odds: Over 2.23, Under —

Flau'jae Johnson · points 10.5 → 8 · 2.5 below the line · played 22.3 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.76, Under 1.99

Jade Melbourne · points 7.5 → 6 · 1.5 below the line · played 30 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.97, Under 1.78

Sarah Ashlee Barker · points 10.5 → 12 · 1.5 above the line · played 23.7 min · BetRivers odds: Over 1.87, Under —

Emily Engstler · points 8.5 → 9 · 0.5 above the line · played 26.7 min · BetRivers odds: Over 1.85, Under —

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

POR vs SEA · last 4 games · POR leads · POR record 4–0 · average score 88.8–84.0 · POR has won by 4.8 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

14 Aug · POR 84 at SEA 82POR won

8 Aug · SEA 93 at POR 100POR won

4 Jul · POR 77 at SEA 72POR won

17 Jun · SEA 89 at POR 94POR won

What each defense gives up per game

SEA gives up88.9 points · 36.3 rebounds · 21.1 assists · 8.8 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.0% of shots · 32.7% from three-point range · 12.8 opponent turnovers

POR gives up91.0 points · 34.0 rebounds · 22.9 assists · 9.3 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.4% of shots · 35.0% from three-point range · 13.6 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

SEA gives up 88.9 points a game · 10th of 15 · league average 87.2+1.8 vs average

POR gives up 91.0 points a game · 13th of 15 · league average 87.2+3.8 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had POR expected to win by 3, expected total 161.5 (Wed 05:06 UTC) and later POR expected to win by 6, expected total 164 (Thu 02:13 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 49

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 66 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 67 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 71 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 82 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 85 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 86 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 87 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 89 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 95 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 278 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 8 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 9 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 292 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 299 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 303 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 244 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 896 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 968 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 1118 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 110 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 123 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 122 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 143 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 157 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 169 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 186 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 191 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 196 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 200 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 202 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 209 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 216 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 279 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 303 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 319 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 325 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 337 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 340 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 381 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1070 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 2482 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 2484 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 2658 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 2659 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 2688 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 2701 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 2706 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 2718 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.