WNBA · Finalupdated 15:35 UTC

Washington Mystics vs Connecticut Sun

at Connecticut Sun

CON expected to win by about 2 · both teams together expected to score about 160.5 points · odds to win: WAS 2.13, CON 1.76

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Wed 22:53 UTC

WAS 88 – CON 81

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: WAS = Washington Mystics, CON = Connecticut Sun.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Picks for this game are not posted yet. The players below are up to date.

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

10 players checked · 8 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 2 out · 0 with too few games · 1 not checked

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 12 players have performed clearly differently and 2 show a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Washington Mysticsplaying CON

Angela Dugalic · minutes unknown

points 10.5 → 6 actual

Cotie McMahon · minutes unknown

points 9.5 → 2 actual

Georgia Amoore · minutes unknown

points 7.5 → 10 actual

Lauren Betts · minutes unknown

points 11.5 → 13 actual

Michaela Onyenwere · minutes unknown

points 9.5 → 22 actual

Sonia Citron · minutes unknown

points 16.5 → 26 actual

Kiki Iriafen · Out · right ankle (ankle)

points 13.5 → no final stat available

Shakira Austin · Out · knee (knee)

points 14.5 → no final stat available

Connecticut Sunplaying WAS

Aaliyah Edwards · minutes unknown

points 9.5 → 9 actual

Brittney Griner · minutes unknown

points 12.5 → 6 actual

Diamond Miller · minutes unknown

points 9.5 → 7 actual

Leila Lacan · minutes unknown

points 11.5 → 11 actual

Saniya Rivers · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 6 actual

What could go wrong

updated 15:35 UTC

Who is out

Jackson · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Fri 21:00 UTC) · 26, 15 and 17 min in the last 3 games

Austin · earlier listed as may not play, now available (changed Sun 22:30 UTC) · 33, 34 and 23 min in the last 3 games

Out Iriafen · right ankle (ankle) · WAS

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

CON had 8 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 15 of the 113 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Jackson out (Fri 21:00 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Iriafen out · played

Flagged before the game: Austin out (Sun 22:30 UTC) · played

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 6 of 8 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

13 other players with a posted line

Michaela Onyenwere · points 9.5 → 22 · 12.5 above the line · played 31.9 min · BetRivers odds: Over 2.08, Under —

Cotie McMahon · points 9.5 → 2 · 7.5 below the line · played 21.1 min · Caesars odds: Over 1.91, Under 1.83

Sonia Citron · points 16.5 → 26 · 9.5 above the line · played 38.2 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.94, Under 1.80

Brittney Griner · points 12.5 → 6 · 6.5 below the line · played 23 min · no final price

Angela Dugalic · points 10.5 → 6 · 4.5 below the line · played 26.9 min · DraftKings odds: Over 1.88, Under 1.85

Georgia Amoore · points 7.5 → 10 · 2.5 above the line · played 19.3 min · Caesars odds: Over 1.80, Under 1.91

Saniya Rivers · points 8.5 → 6 · 2.5 below the line · played 20.9 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.85, Under 1.89

Diamond Miller · points 9.5 → 7 · 2.5 below the line · played 11.5 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.86, Under 1.88

Lauren Betts · points 11.5 → 13 · 1.5 above the line · played 32.2 min · Caesars odds: Over 1.82, Under 1.92

Aaliyah Edwards · points 9.5 → 9 · 0.5 below the line · played 17.7 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.07, Under 1.70

Leila Lacan · points 11.5 → 11 · 0.5 below the line · played 28.5 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.83, Under 1.92

Kiki Iriafen · points 13.5 → no final stat available · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.06, Under 1.71

Shakira Austin · points 14.5 → no final stat available · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.98, Under 1.77

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

CON vs WAS · last 19 games · CON leads · CON record 13–6 · average score 78.7–77.1 · CON has won by 1.6 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

22 Sep · CON 69 at WAS 79CON lost

28 Jul · CON 84 at WAS 92CON lost

26 Jun · WAS 57 at CON 68CON won

17 Jun · WAS 88 at CON 81CON lost

What each defense gives up per game

WAS gives up83.2 points · 30.0 rebounds · 19.8 assists · 8.4 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 43.1% of shots · 32.9% from three-point range · 11.9 opponent turnovers

CON gives up87.7 points · 33.9 rebounds · 19.9 assists · 8.0 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.3% of shots · 34.9% from three-point range · 13.5 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

WAS gives up 83.2 points a game · 2nd of 15 · league average 87.2−4.0 vs average

CON gives up 87.7 points a game · 9th of 15 · league average 87.2about league average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had WAS expected to win by 3, expected total 162 (Wed 05:39 UTC) and later CON expected to win by 2, expected total 160.5 (Wed 22:53 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 55

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 67 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 74 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 77 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 85 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 103 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 111 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 114 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 264 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 267 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 5 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 6 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 302 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 306 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 308 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 308 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 255 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 364 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 190 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 191 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 226 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 229 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 230 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 231 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 287 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 563 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 332 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 337 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 342 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 343 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 355 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 357 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 363 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 365 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 366 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 369 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 370 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 372 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 372 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 374 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 376 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 377 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 380 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 763 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 781 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 806 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 814 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 819 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 838 ms

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odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 848 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 873 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 886 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 893 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1217 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 964 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.