WNBA · Finalupdated 19:10 UTC

New York Liberty vs Los Angeles Sparks

at Los Angeles Sparks

NYL expected to win by about 7.5 · both teams together expected to score about 183.5 points · odds to win: NYL 1.31, LAS 3.25

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Mon 00:24 UTC

NYL 97 – LAS 98

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: NYL = New York Liberty, LAS = Los Angeles Sparks.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Picks for this game are not posted yet. The players below are up to date.

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

11 players checked · 4 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 1 of 11 players has performed clearly differently and 2 show a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

New York Libertyplaying LAS

Breanna Stewart · minutes unknown

points 19.5 → 18 actual

Jonquel Jones · minutes unknown

points 13.5 → 18 actual

Leonie Fiebich · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 13 actual

Marine Johannes · minutes unknown

points 7.5 → 10 actual

Sabrina Ionescu · minutes unknown

points 15.5 → 2 actual

Satou Sabally · minutes unknown

points 11.5 → 14 actual

Los Angeles Sparksplaying NYL

Ariel Atkins · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 10 actual

Dearica Hamby · minutes unknown

points 12.5 → 12 actual

Erica Wheeler · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 15 actual

Nneka Ogwumike · minutes unknown

points 13.5 → 24 actual

Rae Burrell · minutes unknown

points 10.5 → 19 actual

What could go wrong

updated 19:10 UTC

Who is out

Out Brink · earlier listed as unlikely to play (changed Sun 22:00 UTC) · 24, 28 and 26 min in the last 3 games

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

LAS had 8 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 17 of the 168 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Brink out (Sun 22:00 UTC) · played

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 2 of 4 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

11 other players with a posted line

Sabrina Ionescu · points 15.5 → 2 · 13.5 below the line · played 22 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.06, Under 1.71

Rae Burrell · points 10.5 → 19 · 8.5 above the line · played 25.9 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.04, Under 1.72

Nneka Ogwumike · points 13.5 → 24 · 10.5 above the line · played 34.6 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.65, Under 2.15

Erica Wheeler · points 8.5 → 15 · 6.5 above the line · played 26.4 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.00, Under 1.76

Leonie Fiebich · points 8.5 → 13 · 4.5 above the line · played 26 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.01, Under 1.75

Jonquel Jones · points 13.5 → 18 · 4.5 above the line · played 33.3 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.81, Under 1.93

Marine Johannes · points 7.5 → 10 · 2.5 above the line · played 16.7 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.94, Under 1.80

Satou Sabally · points 11.5 → 14 · 2.5 above the line · played 26.6 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.63, Under 2.19

Ariel Atkins · points 8.5 → 10 · 1.5 above the line · played 25.7 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.68, Under 2.10

Breanna Stewart · points 19.5 → 18 · 1.5 below the line · played 33.8 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.82, Under 1.93

Dearica Hamby · points 12.5 → 12 · 0.5 below the line · played 30.9 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.85, Under 1.89

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

LAS vs NYL · last 16 games · NYL leads · LAS record 4–12 · average score 84.4–91.8 · LAS has lost by 7.4 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

13 Aug · LAS 81 at NYL 85LAS lost

28 Jul · NYL 113 at LAS 109LAS lost

21 Jun · NYL 97 at LAS 98LAS won

What each defense gives up per game

NYL gives up86.0 points · 31.3 rebounds · 21.3 assists · 9.0 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.7% of shots · 34.4% from three-point range · 10.9 opponent turnovers

LAS gives up91.3 points · 35.5 rebounds · 22.2 assists · 8.9 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 47.2% of shots · 33.6% from three-point range · 13.9 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

NYL gives up 86.0 points a game · 6th of 15 · league average 87.2about league average

LAS gives up 91.3 points a game · 14th of 15 · league average 87.2+4.1 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had NYL expected to win by 5.5, expected total 178.5 (Sat 22:58 UTC) and later NYL expected to win by 7.5, expected total 183.5 (Mon 00:24 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 52

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 54 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 81 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 87 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 166 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 196 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 199 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 7 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 11 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 222 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 226 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 236 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 247 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 252 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 255 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 94 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 274 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 468 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 523 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 239 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 256 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 261 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 267 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 334 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 350 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 359 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 362 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 364 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 369 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 373 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 377 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 385 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 389 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 392 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 400 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 402 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 413 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 417 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 423 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 429 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 431 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1036 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 977 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1031 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1085 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1087 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1110 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1114 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1125 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1170 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.