WNBA · Finalupdated 19:10 UTC

Chicago Sky vs Connecticut Sun

at Connecticut Sun

CHI expected to win by about 3 · both teams together expected to score about 157 points · odds to win: CHI 1.60, CON 2.25

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Mon 23:25 UTC

CHI 63 – CON 92

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: CHI = Chicago Sky, CON = Connecticut Sun.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Picks for this game are not posted yet. The players below are up to date.

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

12 players checked · 5 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 1 of 12 players has performed clearly differently and 4 show a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Chicago Skyplaying CON

Azura Stevens · minutes unknown

points 10.5 → 11 actual

Gabriela Jaquez · minutes unknown

points 9.5 → 5 actual

Kamilla Cardoso · minutes unknown

points 12.5 → 16 actual

Natasha Cloud · minutes unknown

points 9.5 → 4 actual

Skylar Diggins · minutes unknown

points 16.5 → 3 actual

Sydney Taylor · minutes unknown

points 14.5 → 10 actual

Connecticut Sunplaying CHI

Aaliyah Edwards · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 11 actual

Brittney Griner · minutes unknown

points 11.5 → 14 actual

Diamond Miller · minutes unknown

points 5.5 → 9 actual

Kennedy Burke · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 8 actual

Leila Lacan · minutes unknown

points 12.5 → 12 actual

Olivia Nelson-Ododa · minutes unknown

rebounds 4.5 → 15 actual

What could go wrong

updated 19:10 UTC

Who is out

Out Coulibaly · earlier listed as may not play (changed Tue 23:00 UTC) · 15, 15 and 13 min in the last 3 games

Out Vandersloot · right knee · CHI

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

CHI had 8 days off before this game · CON had 8 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 18 of the 149 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Coulibaly out (Tue 23:00 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Vandersloot out · played

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 3 of 5 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

12 other players with a posted line

Olivia Nelson-Ododa · rebounds 4.5 → 15 · 10.5 above the line · played 26.9 min · DraftKings odds: Over 2.05, Under 1.69

Skylar Diggins · points 16.5 → 3 · 13.5 below the line · played 20.1 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.01, Under 1.75

Diamond Miller · points 5.5 → 9 · 3.5 above the line · played 23.7 min · FanDuel odds: Over 1.87, Under 1.88

Natasha Cloud · points 9.5 → 4 · 5.5 below the line · played 21.3 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.81, Under 1.93

Gabriela Jaquez · points 9.5 → 5 · 4.5 below the line · played 21.3 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.85, Under 1.89

Sydney Taylor · points 14.5 → 10 · 4.5 below the line · played 22.1 min · DraftKings odds: Over 1.77, Under 1.95

Aaliyah Edwards · points 8.5 → 11 · 2.5 above the line · played 14.3 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.96, Under 1.78

Kamilla Cardoso · points 12.5 → 16 · 3.5 above the line · played 23.3 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.83, Under 1.91

Brittney Griner · points 11.5 → 14 · 2.5 above the line · played 22 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.83, Under 1.91

Kennedy Burke · points 8.5 → 8 · 0.5 below the line · played 23.8 min · DraftKings odds: Over 1.91, Under 1.80

Azura Stevens · points 10.5 → 11 · 0.5 above the line · played 25.9 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.73, Under 2.04

Leila Lacan · points 12.5 → 12 · 0.5 below the line · played 20.1 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.00, Under 1.75

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

CON vs CHI · last 25 games · CON leads · CON record 14–11 · average score 82.7–79.0 · CON has won by 3.7 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

25 Aug · CHI 81 at CON 87CON won

30 Jul · CON 88 at CHI 94CON lost

22 Jun · CHI 63 at CON 92CON won

5 Jun · CON 80 at CHI 85CON lost

3 Sep · CON 64 at CHI 88CON lost

What each defense gives up per game

CHI gives up90.7 points · 37.1 rebounds · 20.7 assists · 8.2 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.9% of shots · 33.8% from three-point range · 12.9 opponent turnovers

CON gives up87.7 points · 33.9 rebounds · 19.9 assists · 8.0 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.3% of shots · 34.9% from three-point range · 13.5 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

CHI gives up 90.7 points a game · 11th of 15 · league average 87.2+3.5 vs average

CON gives up 87.7 points a game · 9th of 15 · league average 87.2about league average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had CHI expected to win by 4, expected total 167 (Mon 02:36 UTC) and later CHI expected to win by 3, expected total 157 (Mon 23:25 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 55

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 54 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 57 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 58 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 75 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 81 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 82 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 166 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 171 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 6 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 6 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 180 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 188 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 191 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 151 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 208 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 213 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 224 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 281 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 100 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 105 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 127 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 232 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 241 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 245 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 278 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 290 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 297 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 300 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 487 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 490 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 491 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 499 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 503 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 509 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 544 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 547 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 551 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 559 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 573 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 594 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 600 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 616 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 761 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 773 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 832 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1122 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1172 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1235 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1251 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1253 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1258 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1292 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1368 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1374 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1401 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.