WNBA · Finalupdated 21:02 UTC

Portland Fire vs Chicago Sky

at Chicago Sky

CHI expected to win by about 4 · both teams together expected to score about 172 points · odds to win: POR 2.44, CHI 1.59

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Wed 22:41 UTC

POR 78 – CHI 101

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: POR = Portland Fire, CHI = Chicago Sky.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Picks for this game are not posted yet. The players below are up to date.

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

11 players checked · 10 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 1 of 11 players has performed clearly differently and 0 show a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Portland Fireplaying CHI

Bridget Carleton · minutes unknown

points 12.5 → 7 actual

Carla Leite · minutes unknown

points 14.5 → 10 actual

Emily Engstler · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 10 actual

Megan DiLeo · minutes unknown

points 14.5 → 17 actual

Sarah Ashlee Barker · minutes unknown

points 11.5 → 13 actual

Chicago Skyplaying POR

Azura Stevens · minutes unknown

points 11.5 → 11 actual

Gabriela Jaquez · minutes unknown

points 9.5 → 10 actual

Kamilla Cardoso · minutes unknown

points 13.5 → 13 actual

Natasha Cloud · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 9 actual

Skylar Diggins · minutes unknown

points 14.5 → 15 actual

Sydney Taylor · minutes unknown

points 16.5 → 14 actual

What could go wrong

updated 21:02 UTC

Who is out

Westbeld · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Mon 22:00 UTC) · 13, 14 and 9 min in the last 3 games

Out Vandersloot · right knee (knee) · CHI

Out Jackson · left knee (knee) · CHI

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

POR had 10 days off before this game · CHI had 8 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 14 of the 120 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Vandersloot out · played

Flagged before the game: Westbeld out (Mon 22:00 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Jackson out · played

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 6 of 10 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

11 other players with a posted line

Bridget Carleton · points 12.5 → 7 · 5.5 below the line · played 28.8 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.72, Under 2.04

Carla Leite · points 14.5 → 10 · 4.5 below the line · played 28.4 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.94, Under 1.80

Emily Engstler · points 8.5 → 10 · 1.5 above the line · played 16.8 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.74, Under 2.05

Megan DiLeo · points 14.5 → 17 · 2.5 above the line · played 23.1 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.04, Under 1.72

Sydney Taylor · points 16.5 → 14 · 2.5 below the line · played 21.1 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 2.00, Under 1.77

Sarah Ashlee Barker · points 11.5 → 13 · 1.5 above the line · played 26.5 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 2.00, Under 1.77

Natasha Cloud · points 8.5 → 9 · 0.5 above the line · played 20.7 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.84, Under 1.89

Gabriela Jaquez · points 9.5 → 10 · 0.5 above the line · played 23.2 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.77, Under 1.98

Azura Stevens · points 11.5 → 11 · 0.5 below the line · played 26.9 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.91, Under 1.83

Kamilla Cardoso · points 13.5 → 13 · 0.5 below the line · played 27 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.85, Under 1.88

Skylar Diggins · points 14.5 → 15 · 0.5 above the line · played 24.9 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.76, Under 1.99

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

CHI vs POR · last 3 games · CHI leads · CHI record 3–0 · average score 107.7–85.0 · CHI has won by 22.7 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

26 Jun · POR 94 at CHI 124CHI won

24 Jun · POR 78 at CHI 101CHI won

9 May · CHI 98 at POR 83CHI won

What each defense gives up per game

POR gives up91.0 points · 34.0 rebounds · 22.9 assists · 9.3 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.4% of shots · 35.0% from three-point range · 13.6 opponent turnovers

CHI gives up90.7 points · 37.1 rebounds · 20.7 assists · 8.2 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.9% of shots · 33.8% from three-point range · 12.9 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

POR gives up 91.0 points a game · 13th of 15 · league average 87.2+3.8 vs average

CHI gives up 90.7 points a game · 11th of 15 · league average 87.2+3.5 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had CHI expected to win by 3, expected total 169.5 (Wed 01:56 UTC) and later CHI expected to win by 4, expected total 172 (Wed 22:41 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 52

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 79 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 80 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 81 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 92 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 101 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 102 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 104 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 112 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 114 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 115 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 128 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 231 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 238 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 10 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 12 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 280 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 192 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 181 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 202 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 205 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 250 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 587 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 346 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 354 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 361 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 382 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 386 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 392 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 395 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 401 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 405 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 409 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 417 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 427 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 431 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 433 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 439 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 439 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 484 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 919 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 691 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 724 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 747 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 749 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 799 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 813 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 815 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 820 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1079 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1082 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1081 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.