WNBA · Finalupdated 21:54 UTC

Los Angeles Sparks vs Toronto Tempo

at Toronto Tempo

TOR expected to win by about 1.5 · both teams together expected to score about 180.5 points · odds to win: LAS 1.91, TOR 1.94

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Thu 21:29 UTC

LAS 97 – TOR 125

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: LAS = Los Angeles Sparks, TOR = Toronto Tempo.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Picks for this game are not posted yet. The players below are up to date.

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

12 players checked · 10 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 11 players have performed clearly differently and 0 show a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Los Angeles Sparksplaying TOR

Ariel Atkins · minutes unknown

points 10.5 → 0 actual

Dearica Hamby · minutes unknown

points 16.5 → 21 actual

Erica Wheeler · minutes unknown

points 10.5 → 8 actual

Nneka Ogwumike · minutes unknown

points 18.5 → 21 actual

Rae Burrell · minutes unknown

points 16.5 → 17 actual

Toronto Tempoplaying LAS

Isabelle Harrison · minutes unknown

points 14.5 → 9 actual

Julie Allemand · minutes unknown

points 6.5 → 13 actual

Laura Juskaite · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 10 actual

Maria Conde · minutes unknown

points 10.5 → 13 actual

Marina Mabrey · minutes unknown

points 22.5 → 53 actual

Nyara Sabally · minutes unknown

points 9.5 → 5 actual

Temi Fagbenle · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 4 actual

What could go wrong

updated 21:54 UTC

Who is out

Rice · earlier listed as may not play, now available (changed Wed 21:00 UTC) · 31, 30 and 30 min in the last 3 games

Out Brink · earlier listed as unlikely to play (changed Sun 22:00 UTC) · 24, 28 and 26 min in the last 3 games

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

LAS had 8 days off before this game · TOR had 8 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 14 of the 127 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Rice out (Wed 21:00 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Brink out (Sun 22:00 UTC) · played

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 4 of 10 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

12 other players with a posted line

Marina Mabrey · points 22.5 → 53 · 30.5 above the line · played 32 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.97, Under 1.78

Ariel Atkins · points 10.5 → 0 · 10.5 below the line · played 14.4 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.72, Under 2.05

Julie Allemand · points 6.5 → 13 · 6.5 above the line · played 29.9 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.96, Under 1.78

Temi Fagbenle · points 8.5 → 4 · 4.5 below the line · played 19.3 min · BetRivers odds: Over 2.08, Under —

Nyara Sabally · points 9.5 → 5 · 4.5 below the line · played 19.1 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.89, Under 1.85

Isabelle Harrison · points 14.5 → 9 · 5.5 below the line · played 20.9 min · BetRivers odds: Over 1.77, Under —

Dearica Hamby · points 16.5 → 21 · 4.5 above the line · played 28.5 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.93, Under 1.81

Erica Wheeler · points 10.5 → 8 · 2.5 below the line · played 23.9 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.74, Under 2.03

Maria Conde · points 10.5 → 13 · 2.5 above the line · played 28.9 min · BetRivers odds: Over 1.68, Under —

Laura Juskaite · points 8.5 → 10 · 1.5 above the line · played 20.1 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.85, Under 1.91

Nneka Ogwumike · points 18.5 → 21 · 2.5 above the line · played 26.8 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.93, Under 1.81

Rae Burrell · points 16.5 → 17 · 0.5 above the line · played 29.3 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.06, Under 1.71

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

TOR vs LAS · last 3 games · TOR leads · TOR record 2–1 · average score 108.7–97.3 · TOR has won by 11.3 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

25 Jun · LAS 97 at TOR 125TOR won

17 May · TOR 106 at LAS 96TOR won

15 May · TOR 95 at LAS 99TOR lost

What each defense gives up per game

LAS gives up91.3 points · 35.5 rebounds · 22.2 assists · 8.9 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 47.2% of shots · 33.6% from three-point range · 13.9 opponent turnovers

TOR gives up94.4 points · 34.5 rebounds · 22.6 assists · 9.8 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 47.8% of shots · 35.4% from three-point range · 12.1 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

LAS gives up 91.3 points a game · 14th of 15 · league average 87.2+4.1 vs average

TOR gives up 94.4 points a game · 15th of 15 · league average 87.2+7.2 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had TOR expected to win by 1, expected total 181 (Thu 01:26 UTC) and later TOR expected to win by 1.5, expected total 180.5 (Thu 21:29 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 55

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 43 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 44 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 47 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 49 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 59 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 60 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 61 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 62 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 74 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 76 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 176 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 181 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 20 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 27 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 228 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 182 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 386 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 537 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 173 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 190 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 194 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 195 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 197 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 337 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 342 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 347 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 350 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 355 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 360 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 362 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 395 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 415 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 420 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 423 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 432 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 463 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 466 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 473 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 476 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 481 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 484 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 490 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1039 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 679 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 734 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 742 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 779 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 828 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 829 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 847 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 849 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1022 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1042 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1046 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1047 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.