WNBA · Finalupdated 21:54 UTC

New York Liberty vs Seattle Storm

at Seattle Storm

NYL expected to win by about 8 · both teams together expected to score about 168 points · odds to win: NYL 1.28, SEA 3.91

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Fri 00:45 UTC

NYL 88 – SEA 99

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: NYL = New York Liberty, SEA = Seattle Storm.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Picks for this game are not posted yet. The players below are up to date.

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

10 players checked · 6 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 2 out · 0 with too few games · 1 not checked

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 12 players have performed clearly differently and 2 show a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

New York Libertyplaying SEA

Jonquel Jones · minutes unknown

points 13.5 → 26 actual

Leonie Fiebich · minutes unknown

points 9.5 → 19 actual

Marine Johannes · minutes unknown

points 9.5 → 6 actual

Pauline Astier · minutes unknown

points 7.5 → 3 actual

Sabrina Ionescu · minutes unknown

points 16.5 → 14 actual

Breanna Stewart · Out · rest

points 19.5 → no final stat available

Satou Sabally · Out

points 13.5 → no final stat available

Seattle Stormplaying NYL

Awa Fam · minutes unknown

points 11.5 → 15 actual

Dominique Malonga · minutes unknown

points 16.5 → 20 actual

Flau'jae Johnson · minutes unknown

points 10.5 → 28 actual

Jade Melbourne · minutes unknown

points 5.5 → 18 actual

Natisha Hiedeman · minutes unknown

points 15.5 → 11 actual

Zia Cooke · minutes unknown

points 7.5 → 3 actual

What could go wrong

updated 21:54 UTC

Who is out

Horston · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sun 18:15 UTC) · 21, 19 and 13 min in the last 3 games

Stewart · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sat 22:00 UTC) · 40, 38 and 37 min in the last 3 games

Sabally · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Thu 22:00 UTC) · 8, 27 and 17 min in the last 3 games

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

SEA had 9 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 21 of the 167 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Horston out (Sun 18:15 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Stewart out (Sat 22:00 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Sabally out (Thu 22:00 UTC) · played

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 3 of 6 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

13 other players with a posted line

Jade Melbourne · points 5.5 → 18 · 12.5 above the line · played 25.3 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.80, Under 1.97

Flau'jae Johnson · points 10.5 → 28 · 17.5 above the line · played 32.7 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.76, Under 2.00

Leonie Fiebich · points 9.5 → 19 · 9.5 above the line · played 30.7 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.82, Under 1.93

Jonquel Jones · points 13.5 → 26 · 12.5 above the line · played 30.3 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.87, Under 1.87

Pauline Astier · points 7.5 → 3 · 4.5 below the line · played 25.3 min · FanDuel odds: Over 1.80, Under 1.96

Zia Cooke · points 7.5 → 3 · 4.5 below the line · played 12.7 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.00, Under 1.75

Marine Johannes · points 9.5 → 6 · 3.5 below the line · played 18.6 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.86, Under 1.90

Awa Fam · points 11.5 → 15 · 3.5 above the line · played 33 min · no final price

Natisha Hiedeman · points 15.5 → 11 · 4.5 below the line · played 33.4 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.02, Under 1.74

Dominique Malonga · points 16.5 → 20 · 3.5 above the line · played 34.5 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.88, Under 1.86

Sabrina Ionescu · points 16.5 → 14 · 2.5 below the line · played 29.3 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.91, Under 1.83

Breanna Stewart · points 19.5 → no final stat available · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.84, Under 1.90

Satou Sabally · points 13.5 → no final stat available · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.84, Under 1.90

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

SEA vs NYL · last 16 games · NYL leads · SEA record 6–10 · average score 80.3–80.9 · SEA has lost by 0.6 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

5 Aug · SEA 86 at NYL 92SEA lost

3 Aug · SEA 83 at NYL 95SEA lost

25 Jun · NYL 88 at SEA 99SEA won

5 Sep · NYL 84 at SEA 76SEA lost

What each defense gives up per game

NYL gives up86.0 points · 31.3 rebounds · 21.3 assists · 9.0 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.7% of shots · 34.4% from three-point range · 10.9 opponent turnovers

SEA gives up88.9 points · 36.3 rebounds · 21.1 assists · 8.8 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.0% of shots · 32.7% from three-point range · 12.8 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

NYL gives up 86.0 points a game · 6th of 15 · league average 87.2about league average

SEA gives up 88.9 points a game · 10th of 15 · league average 87.2+1.8 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had NYL expected to win by 12, expected total 168.5 (Thu 01:26 UTC) and later NYL expected to win by 8, expected total 168 (Fri 00:45 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 55

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 75 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 77 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 79 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 83 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 88 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 90 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 95 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 97 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 97 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 104 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 104 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 113 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 218 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 234 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 8 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 10 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 232 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 229 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 282 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 292 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 295 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 548 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 367 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 471 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 475 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 487 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 495 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 499 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 506 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 511 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 512 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 516 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 519 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 524 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 538 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 545 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 548 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 552 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 555 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 563 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 577 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 598 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 782 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1033 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 832 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 2458 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 2462 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 2464 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 2475 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 2651 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 2653 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 2649 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 2711 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 2712 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.