WNBA · Finalupdated 23:40 UTC

Los Angeles Sparks vs Indiana Fever

at Indiana Fever

IND expected to win by about 6.5 · both teams together expected to score about 182.5 points · odds to win: LAS 3.27, IND 1.36

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Sat 22:42 UTC

LAS 87 – IND 111

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: LAS = Los Angeles Sparks, IND = Indiana Fever.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Picks for this game are not posted yet. The players below are up to date.

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

10 players checked · 7 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 1 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 2 of 11 players have performed clearly differently and 3 show a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Los Angeles Sparksplaying IND

Ariel Atkins · minutes unknown

rebounds 3.5 → 3 actual

Dearica Hamby · minutes unknown

rebounds 7.5 → 4 actual

Erica Wheeler · minutes unknown

points 10.5 → 2 actual

Nneka Ogwumike · minutes unknown

points 18.5 → 17 actual

Rae Burrell · minutes unknown

points 14.5 → 11 actual

Indiana Feverplaying LAS

Aliyah Boston · minutes unknown

points 16.5 → 17 actual

Kelsey Mitchell · minutes unknown

points 23.5 → 26 actual

Lexie Hull · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 5 actual

Monique Billings · minutes unknown

rebounds 5.5 → 6 actual

Sophie Cunningham · minutes unknown

points 10.5 → 9 actual

Caitlin Clark · Out · back

points 21.5 → no final stat available

What could go wrong

updated 23:40 UTC

Who is out

Clark · earlier listed as likely to play, now available (changed 00:15 UTC) · 37, 33 and 34 min in the last 3 games

Out Brink · earlier listed as unlikely to play (changed Sun 22:00 UTC) · 24, 28 and 26 min in the last 3 games

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

LAS had 8 days off before this game · IND also played the day before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 18 of the 98 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Clark out (00:15 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Brink out (Sun 22:00 UTC) · played

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 5 of 7 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

11 other players with a posted line

Erica Wheeler · points 10.5 → 2 · 8.5 below the line · played 21 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.95, Under 1.79

Dearica Hamby · rebounds 7.5 → 4 · 3.5 below the line · played 25.6 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.82, Under 1.93

Lexie Hull · points 8.5 → 5 · 3.5 below the line · played 21.6 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.01, Under 1.75

Rae Burrell · points 14.5 → 11 · 3.5 below the line · played 28.1 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.76, Under 1.99

Ariel Atkins · rebounds 3.5 → 3 · 0.5 below the line · played 22.4 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.64, Under 2.20

Sophie Cunningham · points 10.5 → 9 · 1.5 below the line · played 19.6 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.00, Under 1.76

Kelsey Mitchell · points 23.5 → 26 · 2.5 above the line · played 26.3 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.85, Under 1.88

Monique Billings · rebounds 5.5 → 6 · 0.5 above the line · played 21.9 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.16, Under 1.65

Nneka Ogwumike · points 18.5 → 17 · 1.5 below the line · played 26.1 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.03, Under 1.73

Aliyah Boston · points 16.5 → 17 · 0.5 above the line · played 20.8 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.66, Under 2.13

Caitlin Clark · points 21.5 → no final stat available · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.89, Under 1.85

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

IND vs LAS · last 16 games · LAS leads · IND record 6–10 · average score 84.7–86.4 · IND has lost by 1.7 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

8 Jul · IND 92 at LAS 106IND lost

27 Jun · LAS 87 at IND 111IND won

13 May · IND 87 at LAS 78IND won

What each defense gives up per game

LAS gives up91.3 points · 35.5 rebounds · 22.2 assists · 8.9 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 47.2% of shots · 33.6% from three-point range · 13.9 opponent turnovers

IND gives up90.7 points · 31.9 rebounds · 20.8 assists · 8.1 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.2% of shots · 34.0% from three-point range · 12.6 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

LAS gives up 91.3 points a game · 14th of 15 · league average 87.2+4.1 vs average

IND gives up 90.7 points a game · 12th of 15 · league average 87.2+3.5 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had IND expected to win by 6.5, expected total 178.5 (Sat 01:11 UTC) and later IND expected to win by 6.5, expected total 182.5 (Sat 22:42 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 52

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 43 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 48 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 49 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 54 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 55 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 56 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 71 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 73 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 73 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 90 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 93 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 299 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 307 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 310 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 267 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 20 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 22 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 105 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 178 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 212 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 226 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 231 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 278 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 282 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 286 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 287 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 304 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 308 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 313 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 672 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 409 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 411 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 457 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 530 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 535 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 538 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 568 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 574 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1012 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 894 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 894 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 972 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 973 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 975 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 974 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 976 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1149 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1202 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 1202 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1244 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.