WNBA · Finalupdated 08:00 UTC

Phoenix Mercury vs Toronto Tempo

at Toronto Tempo

TOR expected to win by about 5.5 · both teams together expected to score about 178 points · odds to win: PHO 2.75, TOR 1.48

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Sat 16:44 UTC

PHO 89 – TOR 80

Final

No verified saved picks were returned; missing records do not prove no picks qualified.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: PHO = Phoenix Mercury, TOR = Toronto Tempo.

Saved player research

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Publication timing not verified

Saved legacy CORE rows, if available, have not been verified as pre-tip publications. They are not backfilled into the published record, and a missing row is not a pass.

No new predictions are being generated here after tip. Saved calls and captured research are not current offers or injury confirmations.

This game’s current price coverage could not be verified. An empty price panel does not mean bookmakers have no lines.

Price comparison only: live snapshot enrichment and model inference were not requested by this game view. Source injuries, lineups and historical statistics are separate reads.

Evaluation coverage and timestamps

Status is slate-wide, observed only since the service started. It does not identify this game’s individual evaluation result.

Slate games processed: 0 / 0
Latest publication attempt: unknown
Status observed since: 29 Oct, 12:14 UTC

No verified attempt timestamp was returned. This is unknown—not a successful empty evaluation.

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

9 players checked · 8 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 8 players have performed clearly differently and 1 shows a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Phoenix Mercuryplaying TOR

Kahleah Copper · minutes unknown

points 21.5 → 27 actual

Lexi Held · minutes unknown

points 9.5 → 16 actual

Noemie Brochant · minutes unknown

points 9.5 → 3 actual

Valeriane Ayayi · minutes unknown

points 11.5 → 20 actual

Toronto Tempoplaying PHO

Isabelle Harrison · minutes unknown

points 12.5 → 12 actual

Julie Allemand · minutes unknown

points 6.5 → 11 actual

Maria Conde · minutes unknown

points 10.5 → 10 actual

Marina Mabrey · minutes unknown

points 23.5 → no final stat available

Nyara Sabally · minutes unknown

points 11.5 → 14 actual

Saved gameplay research · not CORE picks

What did the models record?

Read frozen projections, minutes and lineup assumptions for this exact game. These are uncalibrated research—not official recommendations or evidence that the CORE selector ran.

Only original pre-tip captures are read. Nothing is newly forecast after tip; old availability assumptions are not current injury news.

Saved reads only · no new captures, current snapshots, odds requests or paid AI runs.

What could go wrong

updated 08:00 UTC

Who is out

Rice · earlier listed as may not play, now available (changed Wed 21:00 UTC) · 31, 30 and 30 min in the last 3 games

Thomas · earlier listed as likely to play, now available (changed Fri 01:40 UTC) · 27, 32 and 30 min in the last 3 games

Mack · earlier listed as likely to play, now available (changed Sun 22:10 UTC) · 27, 22 and 29 min in the last 3 games

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

PHO had 39 days off before this game · TOR had 39 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 10 of the 81 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Rice out (Wed 21:00 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Thomas out (Fri 01:40 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Mack out (Sun 22:10 UTC) · played

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 2 of 7 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalNo verified saved CORE picks were returned; missing records do not prove no picks qualified.

9 other players with a posted line

Valeriane Ayayi · points 11.5 → 20 · 8.5 above the line · played 27.1 min · no final price

Julie Allemand · points 6.5 → 11 · 4.5 above the line · played 38.6 min · no final price

Lexi Held · points 9.5 → 16 · 6.5 above the line · played 29.8 min · no final price

Noemie Brochant · points 9.5 → 3 · 6.5 below the line · played 27.8 min · no final price

Kahleah Copper · points 21.5 → 27 · 5.5 above the line · played 34.1 min · no final price

Nyara Sabally · points 11.5 → 14 · 2.5 above the line · played 26.2 min · no final price

Maria Conde · points 10.5 → 10 · 0.5 below the line · played 37.2 min · no final price

Isabelle Harrison · points 12.5 → 12 · 0.5 below the line · played 27 min · no final price

Marina Mabrey · points 23.5 → no final stat available · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

TOR vs PHO · last 3 games · PHO leads · TOR record 1–2 · average score 82.3–93.3 · TOR has lost by 11 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

29 Aug · TOR 69 at PHO 101TOR lost

27 Jun · PHO 89 at TOR 80TOR lost

19 May · TOR 98 at PHO 90TOR won

What each defense gives up per game

PHO gives up87.6 points · 34.0 rebounds · 21.5 assists · 9.7 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.4% of shots · 36.1% from three-point range · 12.9 opponent turnovers

TOR gives up94.4 points · 34.5 rebounds · 22.6 assists · 9.8 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 47.8% of shots · 35.4% from three-point range · 12.1 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

PHO gives up 87.6 points a game · 8th of 15 · league average 87.0about league average

TOR gives up 94.4 points a game · 15th of 15 · league average 87.0+7.3 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had TOR expected to win by 4, expected total 177.5 (Sat 01:43 UTC) and later TOR expected to win by 5.5, expected total 178 (Sat 16:44 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 47

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 37 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 41 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 54 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 56 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 59 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 60 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 62 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 62 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 63 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 65 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 65 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 68 ms

grading verdict/board (price-only)ok 200 · 74 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 74 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 43 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 45 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 85 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 123 ms

grading picks/published (saved-only)ok · 127 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 58 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 93 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 100 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 99 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 100 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 100 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 101 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 138 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 140 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 145 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 149 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 183 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 188 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 223 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 222 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 224 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 224 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 227 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 232 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 242 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 251 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 251 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 255 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 256 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 259 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 260 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 261 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 268 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.