WNBA · Finalupdated 07:08 UTC

Seattle Storm vs Phoenix Mercury

at Phoenix Mercury

PHO expected to win by about 4 · both teams together expected to score about 168.5 points · odds to win: SEA 2.47, PHO 1.58

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Fri 00:38 UTC

SEA 67 – PHO 90

Final

No verified saved picks were returned; missing records do not prove no picks qualified.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: SEA = Seattle Storm, PHO = Phoenix Mercury.

Saved player research

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Publication timing not verified

Saved legacy CORE rows, if available, have not been verified as pre-tip publications. They are not backfilled into the published record, and a missing row is not a pass.

No new predictions are being generated here after tip. Saved calls and captured research are not current offers or injury confirmations.

This game’s current price coverage could not be verified. An empty price panel does not mean bookmakers have no lines.

Price comparison only: live snapshot enrichment and model inference were not requested by this game view. Source injuries, lineups and historical statistics are separate reads.

Evaluation coverage and timestamps

Status is slate-wide, observed only since the service started. It does not identify this game’s individual evaluation result.

Slate games processed: 0 / 0
Latest publication attempt: unknown
Status observed since: 29 Oct, 12:14 UTC

No verified attempt timestamp was returned. This is unknown—not a successful empty evaluation.

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

10 players checked · 8 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 1 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 11 players have performed clearly differently and 1 shows a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Seattle Stormplaying PHO

Awa Fam · minutes unknown

points 11.5 → 13 actual

Dominique Malonga · minutes unknown

points 17.5 → 5 actual

Ezi Magbegor · minutes unknown

points 5.5 → 8 actual

Flau'jae Johnson · minutes unknown

points 12.5 → 11 actual

Jade Melbourne · minutes unknown

points 7.5 → 11 actual

Natisha Hiedeman · minutes unknown

points 15.5 → 13 actual

Phoenix Mercuryplaying SEA

Alyssa Thomas · minutes unknown

points 14.5 → 9 actual

Kahleah Copper · minutes unknown

points 18.5 → 30 actual

Lexi Held · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 17 actual

Valeriane Ayayi · minutes unknown

rebounds 5.5 → 2 actual

Noemie Brochant · Out · left ankle

points 7.5 → no final stat available

Saved gameplay research · not CORE picks

What did the models record?

Read frozen projections, minutes and lineup assumptions for this exact game. These are uncalibrated research—not official recommendations or evidence that the CORE selector ran.

Only original pre-tip captures are read. Nothing is newly forecast after tip; old availability assumptions are not current injury news.

Saved reads only · no new captures, current snapshots, odds requests or paid AI runs.

What could go wrong

updated 07:08 UTC

Who is out

Mack · earlier listed as likely to play, now available (changed Sun 22:10 UTC) · 27, 22 and 29 min in the last 3 games

Whitcomb · earlier listed as likely to play, now available (changed Thu 00:00 UTC) · 19, 15 and 25 min in the last 3 games

Magbegor · likely to play · right foot (foot) · SEA

Out Brochant · left ankle · PHO

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

SEA had 40 days off before this game · PHO had 39 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 19 of the 132 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Mack out (Sun 22:10 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Brochant out · played

Flagged before the game: Whitcomb out (Thu 00:00 UTC) · played

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 5 of 8 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalNo verified saved CORE picks were returned; missing records do not prove no picks qualified.

11 other players with a posted line

Lexi Held · points 8.5 → 17 · 8.5 above the line · played 31.3 min · no final price

Dominique Malonga · points 17.5 → 5 · 12.5 below the line · played 20.8 min · no final price

Valeriane Ayayi · rebounds 5.5 → 2 · 3.5 below the line · played 27.4 min · no final price

Kahleah Copper · points 18.5 → 30 · 11.5 above the line · played 35.9 min · no final price

Jade Melbourne · points 7.5 → 11 · 3.5 above the line · played 26 min · no final price

Ezi Magbegor · points 5.5 → 8 · 2.5 above the line · played 17 min · no final price

Alyssa Thomas · points 14.5 → 9 · 5.5 below the line · played 33.3 min · no final price

Natisha Hiedeman · points 15.5 → 13 · 2.5 below the line · played 27.4 min · no final price

Awa Fam · points 11.5 → 13 · 1.5 above the line · played 26.9 min · no final price

Flau'jae Johnson · points 12.5 → 11 · 1.5 below the line · played 29.3 min · no final price

Noemie Brochant · points 7.5 → no final stat available · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

PHO vs SEA · last 18 games · PHO leads · PHO record 9–9 · average score 78.8–79.4 · PHO has lost by 0.6 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

2 Jul · SEA 67 at PHO 90PHO won

20 Jun · SEA 73 at PHO 93PHO won

3 Jun · PHO 72 at SEA 68PHO won

What each defense gives up per game

SEA gives up88.9 points · 36.3 rebounds · 21.1 assists · 8.8 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.0% of shots · 32.7% from three-point range · 12.8 opponent turnovers

PHO gives up87.6 points · 34.0 rebounds · 21.5 assists · 9.7 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.4% of shots · 36.1% from three-point range · 12.9 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

SEA gives up 88.9 points a game · 10th of 15 · league average 87.0+1.9 vs average

PHO gives up 87.6 points a game · 8th of 15 · league average 87.0about league average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had PHO expected to win by 3.5, expected total 168.5 (Thu 03:36 UTC) and later PHO expected to win by 4, expected total 168.5 (Fri 00:38 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 53

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 38 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 39 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 41 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 44 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 52 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 52 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 53 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 54 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 54 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 55 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 101 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 103 ms

grading picks/published (saved-only)ok · 105 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 5 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 6 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 5 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 137 ms

grading verdict/board (price-only)ok 200 · 166 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 101 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 103 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 196 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 199 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 200 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 202 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 208 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 209 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 211 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 212 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 217 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 218 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 385 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 222 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 224 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 227 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 230 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 231 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 232 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 238 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 240 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 240 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 246 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 247 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 253 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 253 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 255 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 257 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 258 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 260 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 262 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 265 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 267 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 841 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.