WNBA · Finalupdated 09:30 UTC

Minnesota Lynx vs New York Liberty

at New York Liberty

MIN expected to win by about 2.5 · both teams together expected to score about 174 points · odds to win: MIN 1.70, NYL 2.22

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Fri 22:22 UTC

MIN 86 – NYL 99

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: MIN = Minnesota Lynx, NYL = New York Liberty.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Picks for this game are not posted yet. The players below are up to date.

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

11 players checked · 5 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 1 of 11 players has performed clearly differently and 2 show a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Minnesota Lynxplaying NYL

Courtney Williams · minutes unknown

points 15.5 → 16 actual

Kayla McBride · minutes unknown

points 15.5 → 18 actual

Natasha Howard · minutes unknown

points 15.5 → 7 actual

Nia Brodie · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 7 actual

Olivia Miles · minutes unknown

points 18.5 → 14 actual

New York Libertyplaying MIN

Breanna Stewart · minutes unknown

points 18.5 → 36 actual

Jonquel Jones · minutes unknown

points 14.5 → 14 actual

Leonie Fiebich · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 13 actual

Marine Johannes · minutes unknown

points 6.5 → 0 actual

Pauline Astier · minutes unknown

points 7.5 → 14 actual

Sabrina Ionescu · minutes unknown

points 14.5 → 17 actual

What could go wrong

updated 09:30 UTC

Who is out

Fauthoux · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Mon 04:40 UTC) · 3, 17 and 8 min in the last 3 games

Out Carrington · earlier listed as available (changed Wed 00:15 UTC) · 4, 18 and 19 min in the last 3 games

Cechova · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sun 16:00 UTC) · 11, 22 and 19 min in the last 3 games

Collier · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sun 21:45 UTC) · 33, 33 and 25 min in the last 3 games

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 19 of the 140 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Fauthoux out (Mon 04:40 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Carrington out (Wed 00:15 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Cechova out (Sun 16:00 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Collier out (Sun 21:45 UTC) · played

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 3 of 5 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

11 other players with a posted line

Marine Johannes · points 6.5 → 0 · 6.5 below the line · played 14.7 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.88, Under 1.89

Breanna Stewart · points 18.5 → 36 · 17.5 above the line · played 35.5 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.02, Under 1.73

Pauline Astier · points 7.5 → 14 · 6.5 above the line · played 30.2 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.77, Under 2.00

Natasha Howard · points 15.5 → 7 · 8.5 below the line · played 31.1 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.73, Under 2.02

Leonie Fiebich · points 8.5 → 13 · 4.5 above the line · played 36.5 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.80, Under 1.94

Olivia Miles · points 18.5 → 14 · 4.5 below the line · played 26.2 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.95, Under 1.79

Nia Brodie · points 8.5 → 7 · 1.5 below the line · played 28.1 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.81, Under 1.93

Sabrina Ionescu · points 14.5 → 17 · 2.5 above the line · played 35.1 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.85, Under 1.88

Kayla McBride · points 15.5 → 18 · 2.5 above the line · played 32.7 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.03, Under 1.72

Jonquel Jones · points 14.5 → 14 · 0.5 below the line · played 33.5 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.84, Under 1.90

Courtney Williams · points 15.5 → 16 · 0.5 above the line · played 24.5 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.90, Under 1.84

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

NYL vs MIN · last 23 games · NYL leads · NYL record 12–11 · average score 83.4–79.8 · NYL has won by 3.7 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

29 Sep · MIN 71 at NYL 87NYL won

27 Sep · NYL 91 at MIN 75NYL won

18 Sep · NYL 93 at MIN 81NYL won

11 Jul · NYL 85 at MIN 90NYL lost

3 Jul · MIN 86 at NYL 99NYL won

What each defense gives up per game

MIN gives up83.9 points · 33.4 rebounds · 20.5 assists · 9.3 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 43.7% of shots · 33.3% from three-point range · 14.5 opponent turnovers

NYL gives up86.0 points · 31.3 rebounds · 21.3 assists · 9.0 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.7% of shots · 34.4% from three-point range · 10.9 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

MIN gives up 83.9 points a game · 3rd of 15 · league average 87.2−3.3 vs average

NYL gives up 86.0 points a game · 6th of 15 · league average 87.2about league average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had MIN expected to win by 2, expected total 173 (Fri 03:15 UTC) and later MIN expected to win by 2.5, expected total 174 (Fri 22:22 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 52

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 114 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 119 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 132 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 150 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 155 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 158 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 160 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 164 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 167 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 302 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 307 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 311 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 9 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 11 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 320 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 191 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 592 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 654 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 59 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 127 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 270 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 276 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 279 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 293 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 299 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 302 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 311 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 331 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 337 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 343 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 349 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 365 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 367 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 373 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 375 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 384 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 405 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 418 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 427 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1121 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 667 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 713 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 718 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 723 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 729 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 734 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1039 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1041 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1107 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1110 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.