WNBA · Jul 4 gameAll props Full sheet

Portland Fire at Seattle Storm

FinalPOR 77 – SEA 72Page updated 05:23 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

No saved picks to grade.

Saved picks

0Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes · 1 availability alert

Out Mair · earlier listed as available

No playing-time estimates are available.

Picks for this game are not posted yet. The players below are up to date.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Availability to check

Out Mair · earlier listed as available · Thu 01:15 UTC · 5, 2 and 7 min in the last 3 games

Players and minutes10 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

Portland Fire

Bridget Carleton · minutes unknown

points 13.5 → 14 actual

Carla Leite · minutes unknown

points 14.5 → 20 actual

Emily Engstler · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 9 actual

Megan DiLeo · minutes unknown

points 12.5 → 10 actual

Sarah Ashlee Barker · minutes unknown

points 11.5 → 4 actual

Seattle Storm

Awa Fam · minutes unknown

points 11.5 → 12 actual

Dominique Malonga · minutes unknown

points 17.5 → 22 actual

Flau'jae Johnson · minutes unknown

points 12.5 → 1 actual

Jade Melbourne · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 5 actual

Natisha Hiedeman · minutes unknown

points 15.5 → 15 actual

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

SEA expected to win by about 4.5 · both teams together expected to score about 172 points · odds to win: POR 2.56, SEA 1.54

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference) · observed Sat 23:54 UTC

What could go wrong

updated 05:23 UTC

Who is out

Out Mair · earlier listed as available (changed Thu 01:15 UTC) · 5, 2 and 7 min in the last 3 games

Samuelson · earlier listed as may not play, now available (changed Wed 23:45 UTC) · 19, 19 and 19 min in the last 3 games

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates are available.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

POR had 11 days off before this game · SEA had 10 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 9 of the 96 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Mair out (Thu 01:15 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Samuelson out (Wed 23:45 UTC) · played

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

In 4 of 8 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

10 other players with a posted line

Flau'jae Johnson · points 12.5 → 1 · 11.5 below the line · played 30.6 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.75, Under 2.01

Sarah Ashlee Barker · points 11.5 → 4 · 7.5 below the line · played 28 min · DraftKings odds: Over 1.98, Under 1.77

Jade Melbourne · points 8.5 → 5 · 3.5 below the line · played 18.4 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.92, Under 1.84

Carla Leite · points 14.5 → 20 · 5.5 above the line · played 22.3 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.88, Under 1.86

Dominique Malonga · points 17.5 → 22 · 4.5 above the line · played 18.6 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.86, Under 1.88

Megan DiLeo · points 12.5 → 10 · 2.5 below the line · played 27.5 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.98, Under 1.77

Emily Engstler · points 8.5 → 9 · 0.5 above the line · played 21.8 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.91, Under 1.85

Awa Fam · points 11.5 → 12 · 0.5 above the line · played 34.1 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.88, Under 1.85

Bridget Carleton · points 13.5 → 14 · 0.5 above the line · played 30.8 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.90, Under 1.84

Natisha Hiedeman · points 15.5 → 15 · 0.5 below the line · played 34.3 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.89, Under 1.85

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

SEA vs POR · last 4 games · POR leads · SEA record 0–4 · average score 84.0–88.8 · SEA has lost by 4.7 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

14 Aug · POR 84 at SEA 82SEA lost

8 Aug · SEA 93 at POR 100SEA lost

4 Jul · POR 77 at SEA 72SEA lost

17 Jun · SEA 89 at POR 94SEA lost

What each defense gives up per game

POR gives up91.0 points · 34.0 rebounds · 22.9 assists · 9.3 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.4% of shots · 35.0% from three-point range · 13.6 opponent turnovers

SEA gives up88.9 points · 36.3 rebounds · 21.1 assists · 8.8 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.0% of shots · 32.7% from three-point range · 12.8 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

POR gives up 91.0 points a game · 13th of 15 · league average 87.2+3.9 vs average

SEA gives up 88.9 points a game · 10th of 15 · league average 87.2+1.8 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had SEA expected to win by 3, expected total 169 (Sat 01:29 UTC) and later SEA expected to win by 4.5, expected total 172 (Sat 23:54 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 49

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 21 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 23 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 24 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 25 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 27 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 26 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 28 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 29 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 30 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 98 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 100 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 9 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 12 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 119 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 123 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 127 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 177 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 87 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 149 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 332 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 261 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 269 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 275 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 286 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 287 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 296 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 300 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 304 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 313 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 317 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 320 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 323 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 328 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 337 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 413 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 419 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 421 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 423 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 791 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 762 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 763 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 830 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 828 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 925 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 927 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 985 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1027 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1048 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.