WNBA · Finalupdated 09:06 UTC

Indiana Fever vs Las Vegas Aces

at Las Vegas Aces

LVA expected to win by about 2.5 · both teams together expected to score about 180 points · odds to win: IND 2.22, LVA 1.70

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Sun 21:47 UTC

IND 84 – LVA 68

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: IND = Indiana Fever, LVA = Las Vegas Aces.

Saved player research

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Picks for this game are not posted yet. The players below are up to date.

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

11 players checked · 9 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 1 out · 0 with too few games · 1 not checked

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 12 players have performed clearly differently and 1 shows a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Indiana Feverplaying LVA

Aliyah Boston · minutes unknown

points 17.5 → 18 actual

Kelsey Mitchell · minutes unknown

points 23.5 → 27 actual

Lexie Hull · minutes unknown

points 7.5 → 10 actual

Monique Billings · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 6 actual

Raven Johnson · minutes unknown

assists 3.5 → 2 actual

Sophie Cunningham · minutes unknown

points 9.5 → 9 actual

Las Vegas Acesplaying IND

Chelsea Gray · minutes unknown

points 14.5 → 10 actual

Cheyenne Parker-Tyus · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 9 actual

Jackie Young · minutes unknown

points 20.5 → 15 actual

Jewell Loyd · minutes unknown

points 10.5 → 12 actual

NaLyssa Smith · minutes unknown

points 13.5 → 9 actual

Stephanie Talbot · minutes unknown

points 5.5 → 7 actual

A'ja Wilson · Out · right leg

points 25.5 → no final stat available

Original forecast · corrected actuals

What did we expect, and what happened?

This reads the saved pre-tip model. Today’s rosters, injuries and model changes do not rewrite it.

Reading the immutable pre-tip record…

What could go wrong

updated 09:06 UTC

Who is out

Wilson · earlier listed as may not play, now available (changed Sat 02:15 UTC) · 43, 36 and 35 min in the last 3 games

Evans · earlier listed as likely to play, now available (changed Thu 01:00 UTC) · 27, 18 and 15 min in the last 3 games

Clark · earlier listed as likely to play, now available (changed Fri 00:15 UTC) · 37, 33 and 34 min in the last 3 games

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

IND had 10 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 19 of the 136 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Wilson out (Sat 02:15 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Evans out (Thu 01:00 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Clark out (Fri 00:15 UTC) · played

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 6 of 9 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

13 other players with a posted line

Raven Johnson · assists 3.5 → 2 · 1.5 below the line · played 21.8 min · BetRivers odds: Over 1.70, Under —

Lexie Hull · points 7.5 → 10 · 2.5 above the line · played 22 min · Caesars odds: Over 1.89, Under 1.83

NaLyssa Smith · points 13.5 → 9 · 4.5 below the line · played 24.4 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.04, Under 1.72

Chelsea Gray · points 14.5 → 10 · 4.5 below the line · played 31.3 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.96, Under 1.79

Monique Billings · points 8.5 → 6 · 2.5 below the line · played 20.9 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.87, Under 1.87

Stephanie Talbot · points 5.5 → 7 · 1.5 above the line · played 16.9 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 2.18, Under 1.65

Jackie Young · points 20.5 → 15 · 5.5 below the line · played 32.6 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.96, Under 1.79

Kelsey Mitchell · points 23.5 → 27 · 3.5 above the line · played 32.5 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.94, Under 1.81

Jewell Loyd · points 10.5 → 12 · 1.5 above the line · played 32 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.83, Under 1.91

Cheyenne Parker-Tyus · points 8.5 → 9 · 0.5 above the line · played 13.4 min · no final price

Sophie Cunningham · points 9.5 → 9 · 0.5 below the line · played 21.2 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.84, Under 1.90

Aliyah Boston · points 17.5 → 18 · 0.5 above the line · played 30.9 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.85, Under 1.89

A'ja Wilson · points 25.5 → no final stat available · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.90, Under 1.84

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

LVA vs IND · last 24 games · LVA leads · LVA record 17–7 · average score 86.0–82.0 · LVA has won by 4.1 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

1 Oct · IND 83 at LVA 94LVA won

29 Sep · LVA 89 at IND 99LVA lost

27 Sep · IND 85 at LVA 102LVA won

6 Aug · LVA 86 at IND 84LVA won

12 Jul · IND 109 at LVA 75LVA lost

5 Jul · IND 84 at LVA 68LVA lost

What each defense gives up per game

IND gives up90.7 points · 31.9 rebounds · 20.8 assists · 8.1 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.2% of shots · 34.0% from three-point range · 12.6 opponent turnovers

LVA gives up85.8 points · 34.0 rebounds · 18.6 assists · 8.8 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.2% of shots · 34.5% from three-point range · 13.0 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

IND gives up 90.7 points a game · 12th of 15 · league average 87.2+3.6 vs average

LVA gives up 85.8 points a game · 6th of 15 · league average 87.2about league average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had LVA expected to win by 3, expected total 182 (Sun 02:59 UTC) and later LVA expected to win by 2.5, expected total 180 (Sun 21:47 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 55

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 38 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 40 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 42 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 44 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 44 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 44 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 45 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 45 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 138 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 155 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 156 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 158 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 5 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 5 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 170 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 85 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 361 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 527 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 121 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 122 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 138 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 140 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 139 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 141 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 156 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 201 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 204 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 211 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 218 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 248 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 251 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 259 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 267 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 269 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 270 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 271 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 284 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 299 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 300 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 833 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 315 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 317 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 749 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 845 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 847 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 848 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 975 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 978 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1031 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1092 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1157 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1156 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1174 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1175 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.