WNBA · Finalupdated 10:34 UTC

Dallas Wings vs New York Liberty

at New York Liberty

NYL expected to win by about 4 · both teams together expected to score about 175 points · odds to win: DAL 2.43, NYL 1.59

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Tue 22:36 UTC

DAL 88 – NYL 77

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: DAL = Dallas Wings, NYL = New York Liberty.

Saved player research

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

We checked 0 lines; none paid at least 1.70, so there are no picks. Normal, not an error.

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

9 players checked · 5 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 1 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 1 of 10 players has performed clearly differently and 0 show a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Dallas Wingsplaying NYL

Arike Ogunbowale · minutes unknown

points 12.5 → 8 actual

Azzi Fudd · minutes unknown

points 13.5 → 12 actual

Jessica Shepard · minutes unknown

points 13.5 → 22 actual

Paige Bueckers · minutes unknown

points 20.5 → 15 actual

New York Libertyplaying DAL

Breanna Stewart · minutes unknown

points 19.5 → 29 actual

Jonquel Jones · minutes unknown

points 14.5 → 17 actual

Marine Johannes · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 7 actual

Pauline Astier · minutes unknown

points 9.5 → 4 actual

Sabrina Ionescu · minutes unknown

points 14.5 → 14 actual

Leonie Fiebich · Out · left foot (foot)

points 9.5 → no final stat available

Original forecast · corrected actuals

What did we expect, and what happened?

This reads the saved pre-tip model. Today’s rosters, injuries and model changes do not rewrite it.

Reading the immutable pre-tip record…

What could go wrong

updated 10:34 UTC

Who is out

Fiebich · earlier listed as may not play, now available (changed Sat 23:15 UTC) · 37, 43 and 36 min in the last 3 games

Sabally · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Thu 22:00 UTC) · 8, 27 and 17 min in the last 3 games

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

DAL had 9 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 17 of the 115 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Fiebich out (Sat 23:15 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Sabally out (Thu 22:00 UTC) · played

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 2 of 5 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

10 other players with a posted line

Jessica Shepard · points 13.5 → 22 · 8.5 above the line · played 36.8 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.88, Under 1.86

Pauline Astier · points 9.5 → 4 · 5.5 below the line · played 23.4 min · DraftKings odds: Over 1.75, Under 2.00

Breanna Stewart · points 19.5 → 29 · 9.5 above the line · played 32.9 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.83, Under 1.91

Arike Ogunbowale · points 12.5 → 8 · 4.5 below the line · played 31.7 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.82, Under 1.92

Paige Bueckers · points 20.5 → 15 · 5.5 below the line · played 33.4 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.92, Under 1.83

Marine Johannes · points 8.5 → 7 · 1.5 below the line · played 21.4 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.93, Under 1.81

Jonquel Jones · points 14.5 → 17 · 2.5 above the line · played 31.7 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.82, Under 1.93

Azzi Fudd · points 13.5 → 12 · 1.5 below the line · played 34.3 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.84, Under 1.90

Sabrina Ionescu · points 14.5 → 14 · 0.5 below the line · played 32.8 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.00, Under 1.76

Leonie Fiebich · points 9.5 → no final stat available · DraftKings odds: Over 1.98, Under 1.77

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

NYL vs DAL · last 16 games · NYL leads · NYL record 10–6 · average score 87.9–84.3 · NYL has won by 3.6 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

20 Jul · NYL 99 at DAL 98NYL won

7 Jul · DAL 88 at NYL 77NYL lost

24 May · DAL 91 at NYL 76NYL lost

What each defense gives up per game

DAL gives up85.8 points · 33.4 rebounds · 19.9 assists · 8.4 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.7% of shots · 33.9% from three-point range · 11.6 opponent turnovers

NYL gives up86.5 points · 31.4 rebounds · 21.3 assists · 9.0 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.6% of shots · 34.6% from three-point range · 10.8 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

DAL gives up 85.8 points a game · 5th of 15 · league average 87.2about league average

NYL gives up 86.5 points a game · 7th of 15 · league average 87.2about league average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had NYL expected to win by 5, expected total 175 (Tue 03:50 UTC) and later NYL expected to win by 4, expected total 175 (Tue 22:36 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 49

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 19 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 20 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 20 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 22 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 32 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 34 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 35 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 36 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 36 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 104 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 113 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 5 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 6 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 89 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 145 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 152 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 271 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 467 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 41 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 49 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 86 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 90 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 171 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 177 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 178 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 191 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 194 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 198 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 209 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 223 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 226 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 227 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 232 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 239 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 244 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 246 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 249 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 251 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 736 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 840 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 930 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 975 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 983 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1004 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1007 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1018 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1082 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.