WNBA · Finalupdated 11:27 UTC

Minnesota Lynx vs Connecticut Sun

at Connecticut Sun

MIN expected to win by about 6 · both teams together expected to score about 166.5 points · odds to win: MIN 1.37, CON 3.25

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Wed 22:08 UTC

MIN 86 – CON 80

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: MIN = Minnesota Lynx, CON = Connecticut Sun.

Saved player research

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

We checked 0 lines; none paid at least 1.70, so there are no picks. Normal, not an error.

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

7 players checked · 7 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 2 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 1 of 8 players has performed clearly differently and 1 shows a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Minnesota Lynxplaying CON

Courtney Williams · minutes unknown

points 18.5 → 12 actual

Kayla McBride · minutes unknown

points 18.5 → 23 actual

Natasha Howard · minutes unknown

points 15.5 → 12 actual

Nia Brodie · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 1 actual

Olivia Miles · Out · right calf

points 18.5 → no final stat available

Connecticut Sunplaying MIN

Kennedy Burke · minutes unknown

points 7.5 → 3 actual

Leila Lacan · minutes unknown

points 12.5 → 15 actual

Olivia Nelson-Ododa · minutes unknown

points 10.5 → 14 actual

Brittney Griner · Out · left quad (quad)

points 13.5 → no final stat available

Original forecast · corrected actuals

What did we expect, and what happened?

This reads the saved pre-tip model. Today’s rosters, injuries and model changes do not rewrite it.

Reading the immutable pre-tip record…

What could go wrong

updated 11:27 UTC

Who is out

Jackson · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Fri 21:00 UTC) · 26, 15 and 17 min in the last 3 games

Out Griner · earlier listed as may not play (changed Sun 16:30 UTC) · 19, 24 and 31 min in the last 3 games

Cechova · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sun 16:00 UTC) · 11, 22 and 19 min in the last 3 games

Collier · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sun 21:45 UTC) · 33, 33 and 25 min in the last 3 games

Miles · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sat 21:30 UTC) · 17, 31 and 30 min in the last 3 games

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

MIN had 12 days off before this game · CON had 17 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 20 of the 93 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Jackson out (Fri 21:00 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Griner out (Sun 16:30 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Cechova out (Sun 16:00 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Collier out (Sun 21:45 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Miles out (Sat 21:30 UTC) · played

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 4 of 7 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

9 other players with a posted line

Nia Brodie · points 8.5 → 1 · 7.5 below the line · played 14.3 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.82, Under 1.92

Kennedy Burke · points 7.5 → 3 · 4.5 below the line · played 27.3 min · FanDuel odds: Over 1.85, Under 1.91

Courtney Williams · points 18.5 → 12 · 6.5 below the line · played 30.5 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.96, Under 1.78

Olivia Nelson-Ododa · points 10.5 → 14 · 3.5 above the line · played 27.1 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.88, Under 1.85

Kayla McBride · points 18.5 → 23 · 4.5 above the line · played 38.3 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.96, Under 1.78

Natasha Howard · points 15.5 → 12 · 3.5 below the line · played 31.5 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.81, Under 1.93

Leila Lacan · points 12.5 → 15 · 2.5 above the line · played 28.6 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.83, Under 1.91

Olivia Miles · points 18.5 → no final stat available · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.79, Under 1.95

Brittney Griner · points 13.5 → no final stat available · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.89, Under 1.85

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

CON vs MIN · last 24 games · CON leads · CON record 13–11 · average score 81.5–81.6 · CON has lost by 0.1 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

20 Sep · MIN 101 at CON 89CON lost

8 Jul · MIN 86 at CON 80CON lost

6 Jul · CON 90 at MIN 89CON won

30 Aug · MIN 94 at CON 70CON lost

What each defense gives up per game

MIN gives up83.9 points · 33.4 rebounds · 20.5 assists · 9.3 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 43.7% of shots · 33.3% from three-point range · 14.5 opponent turnovers

CON gives up87.7 points · 33.9 rebounds · 19.9 assists · 8.0 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.3% of shots · 34.9% from three-point range · 13.5 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

MIN gives up 83.9 points a game · 3rd of 15 · league average 87.2−3.3 vs average

CON gives up 87.7 points a game · 9th of 15 · league average 87.2about league average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had MIN expected to win by 7.5, expected total 167.5 (Wed 02:41 UTC) and later MIN expected to win by 6, expected total 166.5 (Wed 22:08 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 46

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 10 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 12 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 12 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 17 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 17 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 18 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 18 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 19 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 88 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 98 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 102 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 104 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 95 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 4 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 6 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 112 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 322 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 596 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 114 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 115 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 117 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 121 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 124 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 126 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 129 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 133 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 135 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 136 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 143 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 760 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 170 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 186 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 189 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 192 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 201 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 208 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 220 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 515 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 518 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 523 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 524 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 539 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 538 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 540 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 577 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 607 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.