WNBA · Finalupdated 11:12 UTC

Indiana Fever vs Phoenix Mercury

at Phoenix Mercury

IND expected to win by about 5.5 · both teams together expected to score about 184.5 points · odds to win: IND 1.44, PHO 2.80

Game odds from 5 bookmakers, Tue 04:20 UTC

IND 92 – PHO 89

Final · 1 of 1 pick won

1 pick checked: 1 won, 0 lost.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: IND = Indiana Fever, PHO = Phoenix Mercury.

Saved player research

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

A. Boston · Under 3.5 assistsWonPosted at 1.89 · last price before start 1.89Won +0.89 per 1 staked

Posted at 1.89 · Our price was the same as the last price before the start.

Pinnacle, the reference bookmaker, does not offer this line

First offered at 1.80 by FanDuel (Thu 05:17 UTC); latest 1.70 at BetOnline.ag (Fri 01:51 UTC). The 3.5 line itself has not moved.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

This published pick uses a model-sized stake of 1.35 units. The public Results/Ledger CORE benchmark grades each eligible priced signal at a flat 1 unit and can cover more signals than this game card.

Investigate this prop →

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

5 players checked · 3 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 5 players have performed clearly differently and 1 shows a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Indiana Feverplaying PHO

Aliyah Boston · minutes unknown

assists 3.5 → 0 actual

Kelsey Mitchell · minutes unknown

points 23.5 → 29 actual

Lexie Hull · minutes unknown

rebounds 4.5 → 0 actual

Monique Billings · minutes unknown

rebounds 6.5 → 2 actual

Sophie Cunningham · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 1 actual

Phoenix Mercuryplaying IND

No player list for PHO.

Original forecast · corrected actuals

What did we expect, and what happened?

This reads the saved pre-tip model. Today’s rosters, injuries and model changes do not rewrite it.

Reading the immutable pre-tip record…

What could go wrong

updated 11:12 UTC

Who is out

Mack · earlier listed as likely to play, now available (changed Sun 22:10 UTC) · 27, 22 and 29 min in the last 3 games

Boston · likely to play · right lower leg · IND

Thomas · likely to play · left foot · PHO

Whitcomb · likely to play · left knee · PHO

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

IND had 10 days off before this game · PHO had 17 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 3 of the 47 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Mack out (Sun 22:10 UTC) · played

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 2 of 3 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 1 of 1 pick won1 won, 0 lost · +0.89 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 0.0% higher than the last before the start

Aliyah Boston · assists 3.5 → 0 · 3.5 below the line · played 37.5 min

Pick: Under 3.5 at 1.89 → Won +0.89 per 1 staked

4 other players with a posted line

Lexie Hull · rebounds 4.5 → 0 · 4.5 below the line · played 17.8 min · no final price

Monique Billings · rebounds 6.5 → 2 · 4.5 below the line · played 15 min · no final price

Sophie Cunningham · 3-pointers 1.5 → 1 · 0.5 below the line · played 28.6 min · no final price

Kelsey Mitchell · points 23.5 → 29 · 5.5 above the line · played 34.8 min · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

PHO vs IND · last 16 games · PHO leads · PHO record 8–8 · average score 87.8–83.9 · PHO has won by 3.8 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

9 Jul · IND 92 at PHO 89PHO lost

24 Jun · PHO 111 at IND 109PHO won

22 Jun · PHO 77 at IND 86PHO lost

What each defense gives up per game

IND gives up90.7 points · 31.9 rebounds · 20.8 assists · 8.1 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.2% of shots · 34.0% from three-point range · 12.6 opponent turnovers

PHO gives up87.6 points · 34.0 rebounds · 21.5 assists · 9.7 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.4% of shots · 36.1% from three-point range · 12.9 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

IND gives up 90.7 points a game · 12th of 15 · league average 87.2+3.6 vs average

PHO gives up 87.6 points a game · 8th of 15 · league average 87.2about league average

How the game odds moved

DraftKings first had IND expected to win by 5.5, expected total 184.5 (Tue 04:20 UTC) and had not changed it by Tue 04:20 UTC.

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 1

Aliyah Boston · U 3.5 assists−112value_edge_pct +4.87 · kelly 1.35u · price_check unchecked · rank 4

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 1

Aliyah Boston Under 3.5 ASTWIN +0.89ubet −112 → close −112 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:97923 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-07-09T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 55.4% · actual 0 · 37.5 min · startedBoston operated entirely as a scorer and rebounder (21 pts, 9 reb in 38 min) with zero playmaking responsibility, suggesting the offense ran through other creators and left her to hunt volume rather than facilitate. Her 21% usage and high efficiency (66% TS%) confirm she was a finisher, not a distributor, in this game.

Data fetches · 34

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 14 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 16 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 16 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 18 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 19 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 20 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 21 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 22 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 22 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 113 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 114 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 117 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 119 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 8 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 9 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 106 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 474 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 495 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 715 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 956 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 102 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 104 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 116 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 127 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 130 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 135 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 142 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 148 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 161 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 165 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 554 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 591 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 626 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 663 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.